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What will be the results of the election?

What will be the results of the election?

  • Biden landslide

    Votes: 10 34.5%
  • Biden victory

    Votes: 14 48.3%
  • Toss up

    Votes: 1 3.4%
  • Trump victory

    Votes: 3 10.3%
  • Trump landslide

    Votes: 1 3.4%

  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
A lot of Trump supporters point to fivethirtyeight.com’s prediction of a 71% chance Clinton wins in 2016 as an excuse to say “ignore the polls, Trump will win anyways”.

This time around it’s an 87% predicted chance for Biden.

Going to be fascinating to see what happens.
 
A lot of Trump supporters point to fivethirtyeight.com’s prediction of a 71% chance Clinton wins in 2016 as an excuse to say “ignore the polls, Trump will win anyways”.

This time around it’s an 87% predicted chance for Biden.

Going to be fascinating to see what happens.
One thing of note. The whole emails scandal about clinton came out less than a month before election day and swayed many many voters.
If not for that scandal being dropped then trump never wins imo.

Nothing like that has been dropped in regards to Joe Biden this time around PLUS the fact that we have now seen what a trump presidency looks like (he was an unknown last time and that helped him) equals a more certain trump loss this time around.

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One thing of note. The whole emails scandal about clinton came out less than a month before election day and swayed many many voters.
If not for that scandal being dropped then trump never wins imo.

Nothing like that has been dropped in regards to Joe Biden this time around PLUS the fact that we have now seen what a trump presidency looks like (he was an unknown last time and that helped him) equals a more certain trump loss this time around.

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Dat Hunter laptop doe
 
I read the above terse worries like this.

Without Jesus, the human soul is in endless torment. It's like the fires of Hell, but here and now, and consumes the soul just the same.

I've been reading Marx lately. The man was a terrible human. He lived off donations, lived in a pile of ****. Never did any real work, produced nothing. His kids died suffering from neglect, and his wife died one of the most miserable unhappy deaths after years of suffering. He was brutal.

I'd be kind to say he was suffering from a mental illness, an extreme sociopathy.

During his life, few people survived knowing him very well. He'd drive them off in a violent rage if they didn't just kiss his ***.

His world view was entirely worthless, a bald fabrication, with so many philosophical and logical problems it should not have ever been actually believed. Every country where people have used his rhetoric to rise to power has resulted in a totalitarian fascist regime actually ruled by international corporate interests, the worst form of imperialism ever invented. The political scheme has been just to run off the competition and run down the populace, and keep the resources outta the competition's hands.

It's John D. Rockefeller's wet dream as a way to remove production from the face of the earth and keep prices high while further entrenching political and economic cartelism and monopoly interests.

Nobody can provide material or objective evidence of Christ being the Messiah, or Jesus coming again to save the world, but the teachings he advocated are a helluva lot better for mankind than Marx's.

The positive moral values Jesus taught would improve anyone, and make life better for the people who are affected. Marx wanted to just destroy everything on the insupportable claim that having no property or interest to care for would make us all nice people.

Human nature is not the product of our circumstances, our society, our culture, our property or our interests. We are something apart from all that. We make irrational choices sometimes. Motives like love control a lot of our choices in life.

People who envision "God" as someone/something with attributes like love, mercy, justice will as a consequence of their ideals often apply those virtues in their own lives. Denying the spiritual values of caring and love and faith is denying all the positive potential in human beings. Something that in truth has no material objective except to make people's lives worthwhile.

I really feel that the brigade of materialist/progressive advocates in here are missing out on the things that really make life good.

Whether there is a God or not, we can and should just lean into the good of being human.
 
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Due to that October surprise I didn't even vote for hunter biden

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I see. You are kinda smug saying that. Of course you didn't. You voted for Joe.

But Hunter's laptop connects Joe to the emoluments issue. Joe and Hillary before.

It's likely that corruption is so prevalent in Washington, among senators and representatives as well as significant figures within all of our bureaucracies that we will have a real uphill struggle to expose and prosecute, and remove corruption from our national system. Our media today is in on it.

But I am more hopeful now than in 1972-3 when Nixon was removed from office for doing what everyone else was doing.

A lot more people are seeing the problem now.

I don't think the lid can be slammed on this Pandora's box.

I don't see any violence arising from Trump supporters or right wing imbeciles, but I do see a Biden/Harris victory as the end of the line for the Progressive Era. Which is to say the end of the line for the CFR, for Lord Cecil Rhodes racism/reinvented British Imperialism, for the utilization of fake Communist pretensions by fascist interests, for the entire socialist fraud. People are going to reject the control and the corruption.

A new political movement will absorb the human aspirations. It will not be anything like nationalism, it will not stir people up to war.

If there will be violence, it will be by the Left, bought and paid for by the billionaires who want to run the damn world. It just won't work.
 
I believe Trump will win, but it will be close. I believe if he wins the electoral vote, he will also win the popular vote this time around. There are a number of reasons here, but here are some general things:

- When Trump won he was largely unpopular within the Republican party. While there are still never Trumpers, I believe a number of people who were vehemently against him have reverted (people like Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, and Erik Erikson are good popular examples). Comparatively, I don't think there are many who voted for him who this time are not. Of course there are examples of people who fit this category, but what I'm speaking to is that the comparison between those who didn't vote for him last time (who are Republican/conservative) is larger than the groups of those who did vote for him (Republican/conservative) that won't vote for him this time. I believe he's expanded his base. Those who voted for him last time are still likely to vote for him, while those who were reluctant to vote for him on average are now much more enthusiastic.

- I believe he has expanded his base among minorities. I expect to see his percentage of minority vote to expand. He got about 8% of the black vote last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 14%.

- I've always heard people say Trump won because voting overall was down in 2016. I'm not certain where that idea came from because the voting totals were appropriately high, but more importantly the total % of voting age people voting was higher than the previous election. So the hope is that there's enough people who don't like Trump that they'll be motivated to show up. To do so would require much higher turnout, which obviously is a new variable with more states sending out ballots, so we will have to see with that. But I think the unspoken implication is that those who didn't vote overwhelmingly would go for Biden, and that's a theory that's about to be tested. I do believe that Trump winning could have also encouraged many people who didn't vote Trump but support him to realize that he could win, despite what was the overwhelming consensus that he could not in 2016. I just don't know that there's enough movement to vote against Trump and there is to vote for him, and I think the latter is more motivating for people. Of all the people who strongly oppose Trump, how many of those individuals sat out the last election?

Of the battle-ground states, I believe he gets Florida and Ohio for sure. I think it's silly people are talking about Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Georgia. He gets those. I'm not certain about North Carolina. What it will really come down to is if he can keep any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. I'm less optimistic about those. He has to pull out one of those to win, unless he's flipping a couple surprises like a Nevada.
 
Whomever wins, we can look forward to 2.5 months of being told the election was fraudulent.
 
I believe Trump will win, but it will be close. I believe if he wins the electoral vote, he will also win the popular vote this time around. There are a number of reasons here, but here are some general things:

- When Trump won he was largely unpopular within the Republican party. While there are still never Trumpers, I believe a number of people who were vehemently against him have reverted (people like Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, and Erik Erikson are good popular examples). Comparatively, I don't think there are many who voted for him who this time are not. Of course there are examples of people who fit this category, but what I'm speaking to is that the comparison between those who didn't vote for him last time (who are Republican/conservative) is larger than the groups of those who did vote for him (Republican/conservative) that won't vote for him this time. I believe he's expanded his base. Those who voted for him last time are still likely to vote for him, while those who were reluctant to vote for him on average are now much more enthusiastic.

- I believe he has expanded his base among minorities. I expect to see his percentage of minority vote to expand. He got about 8% of the black vote last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 14%.

- I've always heard people say Trump won because voting overall was down in 2016. I'm not certain where that idea came from because the voting totals were appropriately high, but more importantly the total % of voting age people voting was higher than the previous election. So the hope is that there's enough people who don't like Trump that they'll be motivated to show up. To do so would require much higher turnout, which obviously is a new variable with more states sending out ballots, so we will have to see with that. But I think the unspoken implication is that those who didn't vote overwhelmingly would go for Biden, and that's a theory that's about to be tested. I do believe that Trump winning could have also encouraged many people who didn't vote Trump but support him to realize that he could win, despite what was the overwhelming consensus that he could not in 2016. I just don't know that there's enough movement to vote against Trump and there is to vote for him, and I think the latter is more motivating for people. Of all the people who strongly oppose Trump, how many of those individuals sat out the last election?

Of the battle-ground states, I believe he gets Florida and Ohio for sure. I think it's silly people are talking about Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Georgia. He gets those. I'm not certain about North Carolina. What it will really come down to is if he can keep any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. I'm less optimistic about those. He has to pull out one of those to win, unless he's flipping a couple surprises like a Nevada.
It's a little odd that in this analysis neither the covid crisis nor the poor economy were mentioned. Those two things are on the forefront of every American's mind, and are very significant motivators to vote him out.
 
I believe Trump will win, but it will be close. I believe if he wins the electoral vote, he will also win the popular vote this time around. There are a number of reasons here, but here are some general things:

- When Trump won he was largely unpopular within the Republican party. While there are still never Trumpers, I believe a number of people who were vehemently against him have reverted (people like Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, and Erik Erikson are good popular examples). Comparatively, I don't think there are many who voted for him who this time are not. Of course there are examples of people who fit this category, but what I'm speaking to is that the comparison between those who didn't vote for him last time (who are Republican/conservative) is larger than the groups of those who did vote for him (Republican/conservative) that won't vote for him this time. I believe he's expanded his base. Those who voted for him last time are still likely to vote for him, while those who were reluctant to vote for him on average are now much more enthusiastic.

- I believe he has expanded his base among minorities. I expect to see his percentage of minority vote to expand. He got about 8% of the black vote last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 14%.

- I've always heard people say Trump won because voting overall was down in 2016. I'm not certain where that idea came from because the voting totals were appropriately high, but more importantly the total % of voting age people voting was higher than the previous election. So the hope is that there's enough people who don't like Trump that they'll be motivated to show up. To do so would require much higher turnout, which obviously is a new variable with more states sending out ballots, so we will have to see with that. But I think the unspoken implication is that those who didn't vote overwhelmingly would go for Biden, and that's a theory that's about to be tested. I do believe that Trump winning could have also encouraged many people who didn't vote Trump but support him to realize that he could win, despite what was the overwhelming consensus that he could not in 2016. I just don't know that there's enough movement to vote against Trump and there is to vote for him, and I think the latter is more motivating for people. Of all the people who strongly oppose Trump, how many of those individuals sat out the last election?

Of the battle-ground states, I believe he gets Florida and Ohio for sure. I think it's silly people are talking about Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Georgia. He gets those. I'm not certain about North Carolina. What it will really come down to is if he can keep any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. I'm less optimistic about those. He has to pull out one of those to win, unless he's flipping a couple surprises like a Nevada.
It's funny, when you're talking about how there are few Republicans who don't support this time around, that the Lincoln Project and the 780 retired generals and security leaders who are opposed to him. But I guess they don't count.

Also, I'd like to see a citation on the "Trump won because voting was down" claim, because I have literally never heard that. I have heard that lots of Hillary voters stayed home because they knew she was going to win, but that's hardly the same thing.
 
For all you people who support “Trump’s policies”. Just don’t be deluded: you are supporting naked power by minority rule.


Pennsylvania: The state’s highest court has ruled that election officials should count mailed ballots that arrive up to three days after Election Day. Pennsylvania Republicans are trying to get the Supreme Court to reverse the order, so that only ballots received by Election Day will count.​
North Carolina: Republicans and the Trump campaign have asked the Supreme Court to block the state’s board of elections from extending the deadline to receive mail ballots. The board has said ballots can arrive until Nov. 12, as long as they were mailed by Election Day.​
Wisconsin: The five Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court sided on Monday with Republican officials in Wisconsin, ruling that ballots must arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day to count. (A lower-court ruling would have allowed state officials to count any mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to six days later.) In response, the state’s Democratic Party is urging voters to return mail ballots in person — to a drop box or clerk’s office — rather than mailing them.​
Nevada: The Trump campaign has sued to stop the counting of absentee ballots in the Las Vegas area, evidently hoping to challenge the signatures on many ballots. Last night, the campaign and Nevada Republican Party filed a separate lawsuit, seeking detailed information on the vote-counting process.​
Texas: The state’s top court yesterday upheld a policy announced by Greg Abbott, the Republican governor, which limits each county to a single drop-off box for mailed ballots. The state’s largest county — Harris, which includes Houston — is home to 4.7 million people.​
Michigan: A conservative judge yesterday overturned an order by Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, and ruled that people could carry unconcealed guns at polling places on Election Day.​
In many of these cases, Republicans have argued that changing voting rules because of the pandemic could lead to fraud (a claim that’s largely baseless) and that allowing ballots to be counted after Election Day leads to confusion and chaos.​
Democrats have argued that protecting people’s right to vote, during a national crisis, should be top priority. Democrats have also pointed out that some Republicans have changed their position on the counting of mailed ballots: When late-arriving ballots seemed likely to help George W. Bush in Florida in 2000, Republicans argued that the state should count them”​
 
I believe Trump will win, but it will be close. I believe if he wins the electoral vote, he will also win the popular vote this time around. There are a number of reasons here, but here are some general things:

- When Trump won he was largely unpopular within the Republican party. While there are still never Trumpers, I believe a number of people who were vehemently against him have reverted (people like Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, and Erik Erikson are good popular examples). Comparatively, I don't think there are many who voted for him who this time are not. Of course there are examples of people who fit this category, but what I'm speaking to is that the comparison between those who didn't vote for him last time (who are Republican/conservative) is larger than the groups of those who did vote for him (Republican/conservative) that won't vote for him this time. I believe he's expanded his base. Those who voted for him last time are still likely to vote for him, while those who were reluctant to vote for him on average are now much more enthusiastic.

- I believe he has expanded his base among minorities. I expect to see his percentage of minority vote to expand. He got about 8% of the black vote last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 14%.

- I've always heard people say Trump won because voting overall was down in 2016. I'm not certain where that idea came from because the voting totals were appropriately high, but more importantly the total % of voting age people voting was higher than the previous election. So the hope is that there's enough people who don't like Trump that they'll be motivated to show up. To do so would require much higher turnout, which obviously is a new variable with more states sending out ballots, so we will have to see with that. But I think the unspoken implication is that those who didn't vote overwhelmingly would go for Biden, and that's a theory that's about to be tested. I do believe that Trump winning could have also encouraged many people who didn't vote Trump but support him to realize that he could win, despite what was the overwhelming consensus that he could not in 2016. I just don't know that there's enough movement to vote against Trump and there is to vote for him, and I think the latter is more motivating for people. Of all the people who strongly oppose Trump, how many of those individuals sat out the last election?

Of the battle-ground states, I believe he gets Florida and Ohio for sure. I think it's silly people are talking about Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Georgia. He gets those. I'm not certain about North Carolina. What it will really come down to is if he can keep any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. I'm less optimistic about those. He has to pull out one of those to win, unless he's flipping a couple surprises like a Nevada.
What a weird ****ing bubble you live in, brough. One of the strange things about sports forums is that it brings people like you and people like me into regular, virtual contact. Because otherwise, frrreal, this **** above would be alien to me.

Cool example of theorizing things you want to be true whilst backgrounding a blizzard of data, doe
 
Voting is not down. It’s going to be high turnout. Many counties are already past their 2016 numbers in early voting.
 
Voting is not down. It’s going to be high turnout. Many counties are already past their 2016 numbers in early voting.
Rs gotta get even busier stamping out the vote, then. Good thing they’ve already dispensed with shame.... that’ll make doing so even easier.
 
It's funny, when you're talking about how there are few Republicans who don't support this time around, that the Lincoln Project and the 780 retired generals and security leaders who are opposed to him. But I guess they don't count.

Also, I'd like to see a citation on the "Trump won because voting was down" claim, because I have literally never heard that. I have heard that lots of Hillary voters stayed home because they knew she was going to win, but that's hardly the same thing.
I was pretty clear that of course these people exist. What I qualified this with is that the people who oppose him this time all voted last time, but that more people who opposed him last time support him this time than vice versa. Of course there are prominent exceptions. However, it's important to look at trends. Trump won last time with limited support from the Republican party. A good measure for enthusiasm can be looking at the voter turnout in the primaries for an incumbent president. In 2012, President Obama garnered 6,158,064 votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries). The previous record for turnout for an incumbent was President Clinton in 1996 with 9,706,802 votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries). This year President Trump secured 18,159,752 votes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries). He wouldn't be doubling Clinton's record if the Lincoln Project (who didn't vote for him the first time) was representative.
 
It's a little odd that in this analysis neither the covid crisis nor the poor economy were mentioned. Those two things are on the forefront of every American's mind, and are very significant motivators to vote him out.
I believe the correlation between the views implied above and having voted against Trump in 2016 is reasonably high. In any case, it's still a vote against him, rather than a vote for something specific (and for people that are motivated to have their vote be "for Science!," those are people who voted last time). But I guess we'll see in a week.
 
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