I’ve posted about this before but I think a huge problem is that DL and Quin have a very flawed view on moneyball. Maybe I’ll post more later but it’s like Vegas always winning. It’s not because they have some huge odds advantage. It’s because their volume is so large that it will much more significantly approximate the numbers. A casino owner who puts the entire casino’s amount of cash down on one bet with a patron and thinks “the house always wins” is a fool who should and will be parted from his cash. That’s exactly what we do because we mistake trends in large samples for being relevant for one game, or one quarter, or one possession, and then we’re completely dumbfounded by the results.
Best comparison is rebounding. I believe we may have had the best rebounding differential. But when the calculus changes in the final minutes, anyone who’s even casually watched the Jazz the past few years knows we can’t secure defensive rebounds.