I'm getting a stronger and stronger sense that the Jazz won't keep this pick and will end up trading down.
2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)
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I don't think the Jazz will sit passively at #30 and wait. If they can't trade up into the teens or low 20s for someone they're targeting, I could see them drop back. A Joe Wisekamp/Moses Wright draft wouldn't be bad all things considered. Last year, they got two rotational prospects instead of one by trading back.
I still think David Johnson is a borderline 1st-round prospect, and there are guys like Isaiah Todd, Chris Smith and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl that have value in the 2nd.
There's also almost no chance NOLA keeps all three 2RPs this year. They could easily consolidate #35 + #40 for #30.
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Vrenz and Prkacin will shoot up during the draft or should. I would take them before Primo, Brown or Dosunmu.
I go back between them. There are some similarities but also defining differences. Prkacin is much more physical and could handle NBA strength better and his skill levels will improve a ton with the NBA since he already has a very solid base. They both read the game well Vrenz feels more natural at it. Vrenz feels like a safer pick, he can defend 2-4 or even 1-4 better than Prkacin.
This draft feels so much more fluid than others, especially from lottery on. I think I saw Usman Garuba around 25th a few times. That's weird.
I go back between them. There are some similarities but also defining differences. Prkacin is much more physical and could handle NBA strength better and his skill levels will improve a ton with the NBA since he already has a very solid base. They both read the game well Vrenz feels more natural at it. Vrenz feels like a safer pick, he can defend 2-4 or even 1-4 better than Prkacin.
This draft feels so much more fluid than others, especially from lottery on. I think I saw Usman Garuba around 25th a few times. That's weird.
I agree. Locke mentioned on his show a week or two ago that they might be better off trading out of the first round and then he said during an interview on 1280 that one of their offseason priorities should be trading out of the first round so they don't have to deal with the guaranteed contract. He's usually pretty locked in on what their plans are for the draft.
If the Jazz drop back to the 2nd round, keep an eye on Joel Ayayi as a fairly versatile, well-schooled combo guard. I'm not sure if he's athletic enough to be a starter. I'd feel better about Ayo Dosunmu and Josh Christopher in that regard. But he plays a very mature, under-control game and would check several boxes for the Jazz. He's more developed offensively than Trent Forrest.
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The Thriller
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Remember when we drafted Trey burke in the lottery? Exum too! Oof
homeytennis
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Locke's point about trading No. 30 for a couple of 2nd is well taken.
Another value pick in the mid-2nd round could be Isaiah Livers from Michigan. He's a good shooter off the catch with NBA range and enough size to guard forwards at 6'7". He's not super athletic, but should be able to get by. He's limited off the dribble right now.
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Handlogten's Heros
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100%... unless there is someone we absolutely love I think we move back in the draft. To trade up it would have to be similar to the Donovan draft.
By moving the #30 for a couple seconds we can save like $9-10M between tax and salary. When you consider they are going to be rookies without much ability to contribute right away... the saving is fairly significant. We might trade the first for a pick in the 30s and a future second... I expect us to buy a late second as well. When you figure you save around $3M+ in tax and salary by flipping a minimum roster spot into a guy who was picked in the second round... the purchase price is basically free.
Maybe we can flip Matt Thomas for a second round pick
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I think we could pick up like 3 or 4 seconds... In the draft a few years ago Kevin Porter Jr. went for four second rounders.
I could see getting 40/43 plus one future second from NO... similar for OKC 36/55 plus a future second. Those deals save like $9M next year... I'd probably buy another second in the late 50s... have three roster spots dedicated to second round guys.. leave one spot open. Save $15-20M on roster spots 12-15 and invest in one good FA at the taxpayer MLE and hope to get another solid vet on a minimum.
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I think #30 could be fairly valuable to a team like OKC who may use it as a draft and stash but can pick the best guy and would have them locked into a starting salary slot when they came over... rather than using a second and having them negotiate a higher salary.
NO too because they can consolidate picks and you can give them a four year deal instead of three year deal (unless they use their MLE).
End of the night on draft night I think we end up with at least 2 2nd round guys and think there is like a 90% chance we move our first to slide back.
NO too because they can consolidate picks and you can give them a four year deal instead of three year deal (unless they use their MLE).
End of the night on draft night I think we end up with at least 2 2nd round guys and think there is like a 90% chance we move our first to slide back.
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A Favs deal of Favs and #30 for 56/57 and Jalen Mcdaniels makes sense for Charlotte and us. Would save us like $40M next year alone.
If you believe in Brandon Boston long term and can get him on late-1st rookie scale, that's an attractive option.
Yeah, I just hope they hold onto it to see if Thor drops. If they trade and Thor is there at 30 I will cry.100%... unless there is someone we absolutely love I think we move back in the draft. To trade up it would have to be similar to the Donovan draft.
By moving the #30 for a couple seconds we can save like $9-10M between tax and salary. When you consider they are going to be rookies without much ability to contribute right away... the saving is fairly significant. We might trade the first for a pick in the 30s and a future second... I expect us to buy a late second as well. When you figure you save around $3M+ in tax and salary by flipping a minimum roster spot into a guy who was picked in the second round... the purchase price is basically free.
Maybe we can flip Matt Thomas for a second round pick
TLDR version: All teams need good wings, but the odds are less than 1/3 that a non-lottery wing selected in the draft will end up as a better player than the players selected nearby him.
I decided to riff on your theme here and ask a quantitative question about drafting wings; namely: have non-lottery NBA teams been better or worse off drafting these types of wings than other players?
(Sorry, a kind of long post follows)
The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is: a little worse off. (This is not to argue that the Jazz shouldn't prioritize a wing with these characteristics, however.)
I identified every player drafted between 15-45 over the last 8 drafts (248 total players). Of these, 64 players fit in your category of wings 6'6"+ and 6'10"+ wingspans. (I used 6-4+ without shoes as the minimum, since that's what Primo is). I identified every player who could conceivably see some time at SF (including guards who people felt could/or have scaled up on occasion, and PFs with enough shooting/handling/defending skill to play at the SF if necessary; I omitted players who clearly spend virtually all of their time at guard or PFs whose versatility lies primarily in guarding centers).
I then compared their NBA career to players drafted near them (within two spots higher and two spots lower) on three catch-all metrics easily accessible on B-Ref: career win-shares, box plus-minus, and VORP (If anyone wants to make the argument that these are biased against wings, I'm all ears). By subtracting the value for each metric for each of these wings from the corresponding averages for the four players drafted around him, we can see whether these wings ended up better than the other players selected nearby in the draft.
So, for example, Giannis has up with 57.45 more win shares than the average of the four players drafted around him in the draft. On the other end of the spectrum for these types of wings, Livio Jean-Charles (remember him?) didn't play in the NBA, while the four players around him averaged 22.05 win shares.
Unfortunately, of these 64 wings drafted, only 21 players have had better careers than the players drafted surrounding them by the win shares metric (only 18 by VORP, and 22 by bpm); so we might argue that teams are better off having the wing rather than other closely drafted players in fewer than 1/3 of the cases).
If you go by averages rather than raw numbers, all metrics clearly show that the wings perform a little less well than the other players drafted nearby. On average, the wing has more than .6 fewer career win shares, for example, compared to the non-wing.
(Interestingly, the picture looks far worse for wings whose wingspan is 6-8 to 6-9.75 -- there were 26 of them drafted over the last 8 years and less than a quarter of them ended up better than the players drafted surrounding them; this doesn't include the relatively few players like Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks, whose wingspans both are shy of 6-8.)
By the way, centers/bigs were overwhelmingly represented at the top of the list of players whose careers have exceeded their surrounding draftees. Along with Giannis (who I classified as a wing), Gobert and Jokic by far surpass everyone else. Capela, Harrell, Jarrett Allen, Larry Nance Jr, Richaun Holmes, Ivica Zubac, Mason Plumlee, Muscala, Nurkic, Mitchell Robinson are all in the top 21 of these 248 draftees according to this metric (take it with a grain of salt, since only two players on each side of the draft position are the comparison point).
Among wings, here are those at the top of the list (again based on career win shares in comparison to the four players drafted surrounding them):
Giannis
Kyle Anderson
Siakam
John Collins (I almost labeled him a big, but decided to include him as a wing)
Josh Richardson
Alan Crabbe
Pat Connaughton
Kyle Kuzma
Isaiah Todd cancelled his workout with the Jazz because he's supposedly focusing on teams with lottery picks.
He is either delusional or just doesnt want to play in Utah at all. It's rare to see Todd even land in the top 40 of most mock drafts. I don't doubt he could potentially be a 1st round pick if workouts go incredibly well, but he has no shot in hell at lottery.
He is either delusional or just doesnt want to play in Utah at all. It's rare to see Todd even land in the top 40 of most mock drafts. I don't doubt he could potentially be a 1st round pick if workouts go incredibly well, but he has no shot in hell at lottery.
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Just saw this tweet. If someone wants to reach on Isaiah Todd, I don't mind tbh. He's big and he can shoot pretty well. That may be enough for some teams. It sounds like he's cancelling with multiple teams, not just the Jazz.
The Milwaukee Bucks are bringing Vrenz in for a workout. The Bucks currently have the #31 pick.
Have the Jazz even had workouts yet? Is there going to be no post-workout interview coverage this year?