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2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

I'm pretty sure Reeves will be able to score at the NBA level, but Im not sure any team is going to want him in that type of role to start his career. He will have to refine his game a lot.
 
Ineptimusprime said:
Watched some Ayayi highlights given Tony’s nod that we like him, and would be pretty disappointing if he’s the pick. Very much a below the rim player. Can shoot the three. Good college player

Don’t think he’s an NBA athlete and don’t think he’ll stick in the NBA.
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I don't think he's a starter necessarily, but I think he'll stick in the NBA.
 
Jazz really don't need another below-the-rim finisher. I will be disappointed if they select one. Jazz need someone that can attack the rim as much as defense.
 


Watch, and tell me this isn’t exactly what we need. Note the defensive highlights.

second round steal. I’m telling ya. Can lockdown on D, can create his own shot, can hit the open 3 (kinda).
 
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I haven't watched much Kessler Edwards and he seems to have serious limitations, mostly mechanic. But he can fit into the secondary rim protector role and switch onto wings if necessary. He has great length and nail defense is where is it at if you want to capitalize on Gobert's defensive impact.

Shot is weird but quick and it goes in, he will probably never be pull-up threat. Finishing is alright but will probably be only a cut and straight line drive threat. Defensive fit and spacing is intriguing, though.
 
Another observation. Trey Murphy, Greg Brown, and Herb Jones all stand out much more in highlights than JT Thor does. Thor moves a little awkward, IMO. Don’t like him much.

Greg Brown is an athletic freak, but appears to be a complete knucklehead the Jazz would never draft.

Trey Murphy, Herb Jones or bust.
 
Ineptimusprime said:
Another observation. Trey Murphy, Greg Brown, and Herb Jones all stand out much more in highlights than JT Thor does. Thor moves a little awkward, IMO. Don’t like him much.

Greg Brown is an athletic freak, but appears to be a complete knucklehead the Jazz would never draft.

Trey Murphy, Herb Jones or bust.
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Thor is a bit of a project. Very young. Very raw. I don't think you can compare him to Murphy or Jones. Drafting Thor would be a lot like drafting Josh Smith out of high school.
 
Ineptimusprime said:
I don’t think Reaves or Ayayi is what we need. If those are the guys the Jazz like, color me pretty disappointed. I think I’d rather trade the pick to move Favs than draft either of those guys.

Herb Jones is definitely an NBA athlete and improves our athleticism from day one. I’d much rather be trying to teach an athlete how to shoot than try to teach a shooter how to be an athlete (impossible).

Hoping we move down into the second. I’d like a Herb Jones and a Marcus Garrett please.

Marcus Garrett will be the hidden gem of this draft that turns into an NBA rotation player. His three-point shooting improved a lot his last year at KU (around 35%) he is 6’5, long and athletic and can guard 1-3. One the best defenders in college basketball. I am a biased Jayhawk, but he’s definitely a Matisse Thybulle type.

I’d be happy with Jones and Garrett If we are trying to do this cheaply, trading down and nabbing two guys like that would have me pretty happy. Definitely address a need.

Here’s what I’d do. Favs and 30 for Delon Wright and Kings second rounder. Draft Herb Jones. Buy a late second and draft Garrett. Adding a KU teammate is the least we can for Doke after the terrible summer he’s had.

We end up with Wright, Jones, and Garrett and immediately upgrade length and athleticism cheaply, and get off Favs. Perfection. And extremely realistic and doable. Read this, FO, and GET IT THE **** DONE.
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I kind of agree with you on Ayayi. He just seems "meh" at everything. I like Reaves better than him.

I'll have to look into Garrett more, but he seems like a redundancy if we were to get Delon Wright -- maybe a poor man's Delon Wright (based on college stats) -- especially if the Jazz still like Forrest? Why not swing for another big wing or skilled big?

I don't necessarily agree we have to just find the best length/athletes at this point. We've got to balance athleticism with feel for the game, at least as long as we retain Quin (he's not going to be giving serious minutes to guys who don't pressure the other team's defense). I think getting guys who feel the game in a superior way is another path to getting players who outperform their draft position. (I'm not saying anything about Garrett's feel for the game; I don't know enough yet.)
 
Has anyone done a statistical study like 538 or some outfit like that on the current NBA model on the efficiency of drafting kids with one or two years of college? It seems to me that a lot these guys wash out or are disappointments. I wonder if the NBA went to a model like the NFL uses if the results would be better. It seems like there are a lot of Trey Lyles populating NBA rosters.
 
idiot said:
I kind of agree with you on Ayayi. He just seems "meh" at everything. I like Reaves better than him.

I'll have to look into Garrett more, but he seems like a redundancy if we were to get Delon Wright -- maybe a poor man's Delon Wright (based on college stats) -- especially if the Jazz still like Forrest? Why not swing for another big wing or skilled big?

I don't necessarily agree we have to just find the best length/athletes at this point. We've got to balance athleticism with feel for the game, at least as long as we retain Quin (he's not going to be giving serious minutes to guys who don't pressure the other team's defense). I think getting guys who feel the game in a superior way is another path to getting players who outperform their draft position. (I'm not saying anything about Garrett's feel for the game; I don't know enough yet.)
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Garrett is a long, athletic 6’5 guy that played as a PG and SG at KU. He can defend 1-3 really well (at least in college). He was the Naismith defensive player of the year his junior year. Knock has always been his shooting, but he got it up to around 35% his senior season, and he’s 22, which isn’t ancient, but not ideal.

He’s a guy you throw on a Jamal Murray and just tell him to pester the **** out of him. He’s somewhere between a Matisse Thybulle and Jrue Holiday (not saying talent or impact, just the archetype of player). Totally worth buying a late second.

I think the biggest things this team is missing is someone that can defend 1-3, and 2-4 or even just 3-4. I think a Marcus Garrett and Herb Jones are just what the Dr. ordered. Young guys who can fill a role and will understand their role,

This assumes we are running it back. To me, it’s close to an ideal outcome.

Wright and Garrett might be a little redundant, but Wright is a guy you know is an NBA rotation guy that fills a need. Garrett is a “hope it pans out.” And if they both hit, having two versatile 6’5 dudes is a good problem to have.
 
Ineptimusprime said:
I’d much rather be trying to teach an athlete how to shoot than try to teach a shooter how to be an athlete (impossible).
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The Georgis Niang experiment. Spending three years trying to teach a non-NBA athlete on how to be a NBA athlete, only for it to blow up right in front of their faces. Hope the new FO learn their lesson from the DL era.
 
jom2003 said:
The Georgis Niang experiment. Spending three years trying to teach a non-NBA athlete on how to be a NBA athlete, only for it to blow up right in front of their faces. Hope the new FO learn their lesson from the DL era.
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Niang cost nothing to develop lmao. He was a huge success and a great player for the Jazz this year. Not sure what lesson you think the Jazz learned.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Niang cost nothing to develop lmao. He was a huge success and a great player for the Jazz this year. Not sure what lesson you think the Jazz learned.
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That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.
 
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NUMBERICA said:
That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.
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This is really weird scapegoating. Just because Niang played poorly in the final series doesn't mean he was a bad player and a waste. Teams can develop or sign more than one player for that role. He isn't the reason the Jazz lost in anyway
 
homeytennis said:
Has anyone done a statistical study like 538 or some outfit like that on the current NBA model on the efficiency of drafting kids with one or two years of college? It seems to me that a lot these guys wash out or are disappointments. I wonder if the NBA went to a model like the NFL uses if the results would be better. It seems like there are a lot of Trey Lyles populating NBA rosters.
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I'm sure almost every team does this, and probably some public people too.

If you want to do it, I've made it really easy for you with the analysis I posted a few days ago showing how successful each draft pick (placed in its relative context) has been over the last 10 years. All you'd have to do it add years of college data for each draft pick and then run an equation or two to compare results. It would probably take less than 3 hours if you're willing to do it.
 
NUMBERICA said:
That spending years to develop a 9th man that was absolutely terrible in the series they lost (not coincidentally) was not worthy of the effort.

And what do you mean he cost nothing? He took up a spot in the rotation which definitely was an opportunity cost for developing anyone else or pursuing someone else.
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Can't go with you on this one. By jom2003's logic, which he's been remarkably (and admirably) consistent with as long as I can remember him commenting here, the only players we should go after are superior athletes for their position, preferably young and long, basically the Orlando Magic model. Someone like Ingles would surely not qualify under his vision, and his poor playoffs the last couple years would be evidence that we held onto him for 2-3 years too long. Not sure why you're eager to validate his thought process.

(If I'm misunderstanding jom2003's philosophy, I'm open to correction.)
 
Butler has been cleared by the NBA. Hopefully his stock is down enough we can snag him. I think he’s going to be solid from day one.
 
idiot said:
Can't go with you on this one. By jom2003's logic, which he's been remarkably (and admirably) consistent with as long as I can remember him commenting here, the only players we should go after are superior athletes for their position, preferably young and long, basically the Orlando Magic model. Someone like Ingles would surely not qualify under his vision, and his poor playoffs the last couple years would be evidence of why we held onto him for 2-3 years too long. Not sure why you're eager to validate his thought process.

(If I'm misunderstanding jom2003's philosophy, I'm open to correction.)
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I’m saying nothing about jom whose points I only rarely subscribe. I am under no illusion that you can have perfect depth of perfect bodies and perfect skill sets.

But the lack of depth (or breadth) perhaps was a fundamental component of the collapse in games 5 and six since they could not answer small ball at all. Some of this is for sure on Quin.
 
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