Under the "we just need to be healthy" theorem, are we better defensively, if only marginally?

[infection]

There are two ideas that aren't necessarily mutually exclusive, but are difficult to talk about at the same time (at least for me, as it's frustrating). The first is the idea that we needed to be healthy. The second idea is that we're horrendous defensively on the perimeter and this gets exposed when things tighten up and has led to two historic collapses. It's painful to talk about the first one because it seems so overwhelmingly obvious that we need to address the second one. That said, Donovan was injured the whole series (despite crazy offensive output) and we only got one game from Conley who was playing injured. I do believe if both those guys were healthy that we likely would have won that series, but I hate saying that because we should have won that series as-is but we almost willfully allowed that second idea to totally blow everything up.

There are a few premises that I believe are safe to assume moving forward:

1. We are not likely to make any significant move that changes the landscape of our perimeter defense.
2. We are not likely to sign anyone who changes that landscape to any significant degree and/or Quin is not going to be putting someone in the rotation who will change that landscape.
3. We are not likely to go small in the playoffs (for the record, I don't advocate for this anyway because it would only exacerbate and magnify the underlying perimeter defense problem as our defensive strategy will stay largely the same and/or our perimeter defenders wouldn't be able to easily toggle between the two different styles).

That said, our most realistic defensive improvements (I believe) will likely only arise from:

1. The addition of Rudy Gay as a secondary rim protector and rebounder when Gobert goes out to challenge [this will be limited to the amount of time he spends on the floor, though with the importance of each possession in a playoff game those 20-ish minutes will still be valuable -- he likely will not be closing games in the clutch, however].
2. Donovan and Conley being more healthy to be (relatively) better perimeter options compared to last year. [This would also allow Conley to soak up more minutes than Clarkson.]

I believe changing the scheme would be helpful, but I don't see it as being a realistic possibility. What I mean is allowing Rudy to guard the perimeter if that's what happens and expecting guys to do better to stay in front of their man. I don't believe Quin sees it this way and I'm convinced if we were to enter another 7 game series against LAC right now, he would not adjust this strategy. Any other theoreticals on defensive scheme is purely for message board debate and would not be an implementation we'd be exploring.

So, this question boils down to how much of an improvement these changes are. They aren't the changes we want. They fall well short. But can these changes (health + Gay) take us from a "historically horrible" defensive showing to just "pretty bad." And is that marginal upgrade large enough that it allows the presence of a healthy Mike Conley to be the difference, as the entire burden is not all on Mitchell? I believe this paragraph is really the only question about this season as I'd be fairly shocked if there was any meaningful personnel change and/or any scheme adjustment by the coaching staff.

 

[Gameface]

I think the Jazz are marginally better on the defensive end. Partly because of Gay and also because Mitchell seems far more determined to play defense this year. Maybe Mitchell's effort on the defensive end will rub off on some of the other players?

I think health is going to be a very large determining factor. That and hitting shots. Last year I felt like there were so many weapons that there was no amount of going cold that could cost us a series because there was always the next guy who would hit his shots. This year I don't feel as confident about that because so many of our players have had so many atrocious shooting nights. Ingles just doesn't seem like the same player at all compared to most of last year. Clankson might be in a terminal 3pt slump, although he has been great at doing other things the last several games. I just feel like a couple of off shooting nights in the playoffs could lead to another early exit. I'm extra worried about that because there is going to be a lot of pressure on this team to get out of the second round and I worry they may play tight or force things too much.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The problem is that in most cases there are trade-offs. For years the Jazz (and other teams) have been trying to balance creating a league-leading offense with a league-leading defense. This is very difficult to do because it ultimately means the team has to have elite two-way players. The Jazz used to lead the league in Defensive Rating, but during those years they couldn't score enough to compete with the top-tier teams. So instead they started migrating to a more offensively oriented team. They replaced Rubio with Conley, replaced Crowder with Bogdanovic, replaced Exum with Clarkson, etc.

The Jazz came to the conclusion that they could combine multiple elite shooters and creators on the floor with a best-in-class defensive anchor. It's a hybrid approach. The result is that the Jazz currently have the #1 rated offense (by a mile), and the #6 or #7 rated defense. Not bad at all. The problem is when the other team has a versatile center who can play out on the floor (e.g., Jokic or Adebayo), or the team can play a PF at the 5 and but still be long and athletic enough to defend well (e.g., the Clippers). This means that the Jazz are vulnerable to certain matchups.

However, if enough of the Jazz's offensive players are healthy, the defensive vulnerability shouldn't matter much. A lineup with Conley/Mitchell/Bogdanovic/Clarkson/Ingles, etc. will outscore the other team and make up for whatever defensive weaknesses the other team can exploit. In other words, if the Jazz were healthy they probably could have outscored the Clippers even after the Clippers broke the Jazz's defense. And to be fair, no team is going to make it to the NBA Finals without staying healthy.

The Jazz have several mostly one-dimensional players, including Bogdanovic, Clarkson, O'Neale and Ingles. In order to improve, the Jazz would need to replace one or more of these one-dimensional players with a multi-dimensional player. For example, replace both Bogdanovic and O'Neale with Jaylen Brown or Paul George. However, that's very difficult to do. Rudy Gay might be able to step in as a 2-way player in much the way Nic Batum did for the Clippers. That would help the Jazz tremendously against certain matchups, since Bogdanovic and O'Neale have defensive limitations. The problem is that Gay is showing his age. He's no longer the guy who flies down the lane and dunks over people. He's become more of a Donyel Marshall stretch-4. He has enough size to be a defensive deterrent though, so that helps.

In order for the Jazz to improve from where they are, they would need to make a trade to replace Bogdanovic, O'Neale or Ingles with an effective two-way player--Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, maybe Harrison Barnes, etc. As much as we like Royce O'Neale, he's probably the guy the Jazz need to upgrade in order to take the next step, assuming Rudy Gay doesn't have that impact.

 

[KqWIN]

I agree with most of what OP said. I think my only real point of disagreement is assuming that we won't go small. I think if the other team is playing a stretch 5 or no center at all Quin might just play Gay instead of Whiteside, though I would agree that I'm not sure it actually helps. When you're problem is guarding 1-4, it doesn't really who your C is and matching up to the other team might make things worse.

I also think Gay is an upgrade defensively, but that impact is limited by how much he plays obviously. If Gay is simply a Niang replacement, we're not going to see huge benefits there because Niang didn't play much in the first place and our defensive issues are with our main and closing lineups. If we can't defend with our best lineups, we're kinda screwed even if the 8 backup PF minutes are a bit better. I hope Quin will see Gay as a realistic option to close and play bigger minutes in the playoffs, but I'm not super hopeful and as great as Gay has been offensively I don't think his defense is the answer to our problems. It's an improvement for sure, but we need to be realistic about his defensive capabilities.

For the most part, the biggest reasons to see optimism is that we might be healthier. I don't think we've changed our schemes or become more versatile. The principles are pretty much exactly the same. There is a small talent upgrade but we're really banking on better matchups, better health, and better luck when we leave the other team wide open.

One other I'll add is that the Jazz haven't benefited from the change in the way the game is officiated. They're not calling everything so that has allowed physical defenders to be more impactful. Teams and players that followed the Jerry Sloan "they can't call everything" mindset are benefitting the most. Meanwhile, the Jazz have also played soft perimeter defense and don't mind players getting past them. Our perimeter defenders probably so the least benefit in the league just because of how we play defense. But in the playoffs that might come into play. The Clippers really turned the series around once they stopped running PnR. They stuck Gobert in the corner, blew by our guys in isolation or small/small actions, and made that impossible situation where Gobert had to be in two places.

Hopefully our guys can hold up better in 1v1 situations with better health and by utilizing the added leeway defenders have been afforded. That's something that needs to be practiced during the season, however, and I don't think we're making it a point of emphasis to really get into guys and be physical. We're still very content with letting guys get past us and having Rudy clean it up. I think this last part is an interesting thing to think about. A lot of people have compared the way the officiating is done now to the playoffs. Perhaps another reason why we've struggled in the playoffs is because we've never risen our physicality on the perimeter and haven't played on the line of what's legal and what's not.

 

[Jingled]

I feel like a healthy Conley will help the defense a lot. I don't know what the stats say but just going by the eye test I think Conley might be our best perimeter defender, even better than Royce. Obviously he's small and can't guard wings but he usually does a great job against small, quick guards like Dame, CP3 and Steph. As has already been mentioned, Gay should also be a difference maker defensively. I also wonder if Whiteside might be able to punish small ball lineups offensively in a way that Rudy and Favors weren't really able to last year, sort of like what Ayton did against the Clippers last year in the playoffs.

 

[KqWIN]

I feel like a healthy Conley will help the defense a lot. I don't know what the stats say but just going by the eye test I think Conley might be our best perimeter defender, even better than Royce. Obviously he's small and can't guard wings but he usually does a great job against small, quick guards like Dame, CP3 and Steph. As has already been mentioned, Gay should also be a difference maker defensively. I also wonder if Whiteside might be able to punish small ball lineups offensively in a way that Rudy and Favors weren't really able to last year, sort of like what Ayton did against the Clippers last year in the playoffs.

Ayton punishing small ball didn't happen because he's more skilled or can post up. He scored more points because he's playing with Chris Paul and scored on dumps offs. There weren't many instances where he Ayton actually punished the Clippers for being small in the way people want Rudy to. Posting up a smaller player isn't something that happens much in general. There's instant double teams and defensive rotations. The only guys who really post up against smaller teams are the guys who also post up against guys like Rudy. You need that level of skill to handle the instant defensive pressure and doubles. Almost every teams attack switching defenses by finding the right matchup on the perimeter because it is way more effective unless you have a Jokic or Embiid type.

If the Jazz had Conley, Gobert would have scored a lot more. He wasn't, so it was a huge dose of Mitchell. Obviously going to use his mismatch to shoot way more often, and when he does pass he's always been better a kicking out to three than finding big. And by the way, that works really well. The Jazz played significantly better offense than the Suns.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Putting Ingles on the floor instead of Royce makes the Jazz bigger defensively, and there could be some value in that. His size/length cuts off some angles for perimeter players, or forces them to go around him, even if his feet aren't that fast.

 

[Jingled]

Putting Ingles on the floor instead of Royce makes the Jazz bigger defensively, and there could be some value in that. His size/length cuts off some angles for perimeter players, or forces them to go around him, even if his feet aren't that fast.

That's something I hoped we would experiment with more after that lineup was so effective in the two games Royce was out. Unfortunately it appears the only way Quin will ever use that lineup again is if Royce is injured.

 

[NAOS]

Gorgeousness

 

[NAOS]

I feel like a healthy Conley will help the defense a lot. I don't know what the stats say but just going by the eye test I think Conley might be our best perimeter defender, even better than Royce. Obviously he's small and can't guard wings but he usually does a great job against small, quick guards like Dame, CP3 and Steph. As has already been mentioned, Gay should also be a difference maker defensively. I also wonder if Whiteside might be able to punish small ball lineups offensively in a way that Rudy and Favors weren't really able to last year, sort of like what Ayton did against the Clippers last year in the playoffs.

One of the weirdest experiences as a jazz fan is to compare Conley’s defense in his first year with the team to his defense this year. Two different players.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Playing the Clippers for the first time since the collapse will be interesting for me. I haven't followed the Clippers at all this year, but I assume they are pretty much the same team. Is anyone besides Kawhi out for them? I assume they will put Morris at the 5 and stick Mann in the corner and let Reggie Jackson and Paul George drive on whoever is guarding them. Will they get unlimited wide open 3's or uncontested shots at the rim?

Quin has had an entire off season and quarter of a season to figure out a response, what will it be?

This post is taking me to a dark place, and so I'll stop here. I should probably go check out the historically great offense thread to calm me down.

 

[infection]

Playing the Clippers for the first time since the collapse will be interesting for me. I haven't followed the Clippers at all this year, but I assume they are pretty much the same team. Is anyone besides Kawhi out for them? I assume they will put Morris at the 5 and stick Mann in the corner and let Reggie Jackson and Paul George drive on whoever is guarding them. Will they get unlimited wide open 3's or uncontested shots at the rim?

Quin has had an entire off season and quarter of a season to figure out a response, what will it be?

This post is taking me to a dark place, and so I'll stop here. I should probably go check out the historically great offense thread to calm me down.

Ty Lue tipped their hand in the regular season last year and we all convinced ourselves this gave Quin the opportunity to survey and respond. Quin didn’t make a single adjustment going into a 7-game series knowing that, nor over 4 straight losses. What’s different about an off-season that makes us think that would change, other than a faulty appeal to common sense?

 

[aussietin]

Just a personal anecdote, I sprained my ankle a couple of months ago, and I kept playing that night. I felt like I could still maintain most of my offense, even getting into the lane for a couple floaters. However, I couldn’t get around screens if my life depended on it while playing defense.

The lateral movement and reactions (or rather, the confidence in my ankle to be able to make the reactive defensive movement) were the things that were sapped the most and hardest when I had a sprained ankle. At that point, I started to appreciate how impossible it must be to play defense with a sprained ankle in the NBA.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Health and Rudy Gay will be the biggest differences for sure… which is why it’s upsetting we have already declared Mike ready to play in back to backs. Minute count matters but full nights of rest matters more. It’s just so short sighted and shows we’ve learned almost nothing.

Donovan has been more committed on defense and Bojan has had a few nights where he’s showed some improvement.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Ty Lue tipped their hand in the regular season last year and we all convinced ourselves this gave Quin the opportunity to survey and respond. Quin didn’t make a single adjustment going into a 7-game series knowing that, nor over 4 straight losses. What’s different about an off-season that makes us think that would change, other than a faulty appeal to common sense?

Thanks for helping me go deeper in to my dark place.

 

[KqWIN]

Ty Lue tipped their hand in the regular season last year and we all convinced ourselves this gave Quin the opportunity to survey and respond. Quin didn’t make a single adjustment going into a 7-game series knowing that, nor over 4 straight losses. What’s different about an off-season that makes us think that would change, other than a faulty appeal to common sense?

I mean…the Jazz did win the first two games of that series and Ty made the big adjustment on the fly. Going small wasn’t the thing that killed the Jazz. It was handled reasonably well the first two games and Kawhi was there for both.

The series changed when the Clippers stopped involving Gobert in the main actions and just feasted on our horrible perimeter defense.

Truth is, Quin has been completely out coached two playoffs in a row by Malone and then Lue. Whatever happens in the RS, you have to remember his track record.

 

[gomretat]

The problem is that in most cases there are trade-offs. For years the Jazz (and other teams) have been trying to balance creating a league-leading offense with a league-leading defense. This is very difficult to do because it ultimately means the team has to have elite two-way players. The Jazz used to lead the league in Defensive Rating, but during those years they couldn't score enough to compete with the top-tier teams. So instead they started migrating to a more offensively oriented team. They replaced Rubio with Conley, replaced Crowder with Bogdanovic, replaced Exum with Clarkson, etc.

The Jazz came to the conclusion that they could combine multiple elite shooters and creators on the floor with a best-in-class defensive anchor. It's a hybrid approach. The result is that the Jazz currently have the #1 rated offense (by a mile), and the #6 or #7 rated defense. Not bad at all. The problem is when the other team has a versatile center who can play out on the floor (e.g., Jokic or Adebayo), or the team can play a PF at the 5 and but still be long and athletic enough to defend well (e.g., the Clippers). This means that the Jazz are vulnerable to certain matchups.

However, if enough of the Jazz's offensive players are healthy, the defensive vulnerability shouldn't matter much. A lineup with Conley/Mitchell/Bogdanovic/Clarkson/Ingles, etc. will outscore the other team and make up for whatever defensive weaknesses the other team can exploit. In other words, if the Jazz were healthy they probably could have outscored the Clippers even after the Clippers broke the Jazz's defense. And to be fair, no team is going to make it to the NBA Finals without staying healthy.

The Jazz have several mostly one-dimensional players, including Bogdanovic, Clarkson, O'Neale and Ingles. In order to improve, the Jazz would need to replace one or more of these one-dimensional players with a multi-dimensional player. For example, replace both Bogdanovic and O'Neale with Jaylen Brown or Paul George. However, that's very difficult to do. Rudy Gay might be able to step in as a 2-way player in much the way Nic Batum did for the Clippers. That would help the Jazz tremendously against certain matchups, since Bogdanovic and O'Neale have defensive limitations. The problem is that Gay is showing his age. He's no longer the guy who flies down the lane and dunks over people. He's become more of a Donyel Marshall stretch-4. He has enough size to be a defensive deterrent though, so that helps.

In order for the Jazz to improve from where they are, they would need to make a trade to replace Bogdanovic, O'Neale or Ingles with an effective two-way player--Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, maybe Harrison Barnes, etc. As much as we like Royce O'Neale, he's probably the guy the Jazz need to upgrade in order to take the next step, assuming Rudy Gay doesn't have that impact.

This is spot on. The Jazz and Quinn have basically committed to the notion that floor spacing is a given in every lineup. Getting someone who creates spacing and plays great perimeter defense is a costly proposition and one that we don't have the assets to pull off. In my view we are relying on health and a more committed to defense Donny to be the difference.