Trade deadline discussion

[LogGrad98]

Our defensive lapses were compounded with our inabilities to continue to put points on the board. Game 6 we put up 72 points in the first half. That’s elite offense. We put up 47 points in the second half. Putting up 119 points looks elite in composite. We put up 10 points in the last 5 minutes.

To me this is again coaching. Quin doesn't adjust well on the fly. He does well during halftime and even between quarters at time, but once he has a system set he doesn't deviate even if it isn't working. It's also his ability to get his team to do what he wants them to do. Once they go maverick he kind of loses them. Either that or he defers to them. Either way it's on him to get them to execute the plan.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We didn’t have Bogey for a series and played elite offensively and we didn’t have Conley and played elite offensively. I think there’s more than enough room to spare some offense for defense. Whether that’s Bogey/Ingles/Clarkson, I don’t think any of them should be off limits. Yeah, we’d miss them. But you know what I really miss right now? Not embarrassing ourselves defensively in the playoffs.

Conley would fit in this category too, but he’s just a lot better than them on both ends. He’s our best bet against Ja, CP3, and Curry….which is a testament to Mike but also embarrassing for the rest of the team.

If Bogey could get Smart, which might only be available if the Simmons-Brown trade happens, I’d do that. I know there are concerns about size, but to me Smart is better in every “big man” category on defense than Bogey.

Ideally you move Clarkson. I think he’s the least helpful and might get phased out during the playoffs….but nobody is going to want him right now.

We should have shipped someone to NOP this summer for Hart and some picks back. Too bad that fleecing window is probably over.

We played elite offense against Denver who was a super ****** defensive team. We also had a version of Ingles I don’t think we are getting.

The fact that we didn’t have Conley in a series and we’re elite is not a testament to the fact we should trade Bogey for more defense… without bogey in that series we aren’t elite offensively. He’s a critical part to this offense being a juggernaut. Rudy Gay is a great addition but he can’t ramp up and give us 30+ minutes… he old.

You move “offense” for defense by moving JC or Joe. “Offense” in quotes because JC is high volume inefficient so are you really sacrificing much. JC has no defensive utility… bogey does. I think Joe is checked out… all the insider reports are that he emptied the clip, isn’t locked in, etc. Visibly he looks out of shape (more than normal). He isn’t moving well at all. He’s checked out of a season before when Jacob was diagnosed… I think he’s halfway back to Australia right now.

Bogey will be and is necessary… especially since Donovan is unlikely to continue his supernova playoff performances… he will still be great but to expect 35 plus points a game would be a bit optimistic. I don’t think what we net in a trade of Bogey is likely to be so much better than what we get for JC or Joe.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Alright... so here is my four team trade... likely do a follow up trade after this move, but I'd also do it on its own.

Utah out: Joe Ingles, Udoka
Utah In: Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, Isaiah Roby

Clips out: Ibaka Batum
Clips In: Udoka

Deal saves Clips like $50M this year which is something they are rumored to be interested in... they may have to kick in a second to OKC

OKC out: Roby
OKC In: Ricky Rubio, #33 from Cleveland (they own Houstons 2nd) and 37 from Cleveland they own SA's second.

They are like 20M below the salary floor... taking Rickys contract gives them actual cash savings because they have to pay out the money and Ricky's cap number exceeds what they actually pay him... insurance is likely picking up part of the tab too.

Cleveland out: Ricky and the 33 and 37th pick this year.
Cleveland in: Joe Ingles

Gives them a one year stop gap... maybe they keep him if it works out but they can continue their run with another ball handler shooter.

We get some cap savings... a stretch 5 who is healthy for now... another wing that can replace some of what Joe gave us but hopefully a defensive upgrade. Might make Royce a little more expendable if a deal for a real defensive stopper comes along... gives us some good savings as well. Cleveland may not send out both second round picks... but we could add one of lesser value and I think its still close for OKC... picks in the 30s aren't sold off so they are more valuable.

Might be a little light to some team but I think the gap is easy to make up. Cleveland was one of the teams rumored to be interested in Joe this offseason iirc. I think it makes sense.

 

[KqWIN]

He isnt rated very high in any of those this year or recently. Pretty average. His defense numbers arent anything special on those. Maybe comes out better than Bogey but that is a pretty low standard for defense. He seems to rank lower than Royce in all of those. On RAPTOR Smart is 71st and Royce is 65th. In the real +/- for last year Smart is ranked 119th. There isnt numbers for this year but for comparison Gobert was #1, Royce was #18, even Bojan is 63rd. Even Conley is rated higher on almost every advanced stat on both ends of the court.

I think Smart is a better defender than Mitchell, Clarkson, and Bogey. But again that is a low standard and I dont see him as much of an improvement, especially considering his poor shooting.

I will buy the eye test and him being all of the place idea though. He does have a big motor and hustles every where. I think that energy could be helpful on the team. But I think plenty of other players can give that for a much cheaper price.

"Love" was probably the wrong word to use. That should be reserved for someone like Conley who is advanced stat god..but they do like him and he is a huge improvement on the guys we're talking about moving for him.

 

[campaignist]

Alright... so here is my four team trade... likely do a follow up trade after this move, but I'd also do it on its own.

Utah out: Joe Ingles, Udoka
Utah In: Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, Isaiah Roby

Clips out: Ibaka Batum
Clips In: Udoka

Deal saves Clips like $50M this year which is something they are rumored to be interested in... they may have to kick in a second to OKC

OKC out: Roby
OKC In: Ricky Rubio, #33 from Cleveland (they own Houstons 2nd) and 37 from Cleveland they own SA's second.

They are like 20M below the salary floor... taking Rickys contract gives them actual cash savings because they have to pay out the money and Ricky's cap number exceeds what they actually pay him... insurance is likely picking up part of the tab too.

Cleveland out: Ricky and the 33 and 37th pick this year.
Cleveland in: Joe Ingles

Gives them a one year stop gap... maybe they keep him if it works out but they can continue their run with another ball handler shooter.

We get some cap savings... a stretch 5 who is healthy for now... another wing that can replace some of what Joe gave us but hopefully a defensive upgrade. Might make Royce a little more expendable if a deal for a real defensive stopper comes along... gives us some good savings as well. Cleveland may not send out both second round picks... but we could add one of lesser value and I think its still close for OKC... picks in the 30s aren't sold off so they are more valuable.

Might be a little light to some team but I think the gap is easy to make up. Cleveland was one of the teams rumored to be interested in Joe this offseason iirc. I think it makes sense.

I kinda think Ibaka is toast, and I’d rather route him somewhere else for a pick or something, but I’d do this for sure. I think the other teams would too, depending on what needs to be added or subtracted.

 

[KqWIN]

We played elite offense against Denver who was a super ****** defensive team. We also had a version of Ingles I don’t think we are getting.

The fact that we didn’t have Conley in a series and we’re elite is not a testament to the fact we should trade Bogey for more defense… without bogey in that series we aren’t elite offensively. He’s a critical part to this offense being a juggernaut. Rudy Gay is a great addition but he can’t ramp up and give us 30+ minutes… he old.

You move “offense” for defense by moving JC or Joe. “Offense” in quotes because JC is high volume inefficient so are you really sacrificing much. JC has no defensive utility… bogey does. I think Joe is checked out… all the insider reports are that he emptied the clip, isn’t locked in, etc. Visibly he looks out of shape (more than normal). He isn’t moving well at all. He’s checked out of a season before when Jacob was diagnosed… I think he’s halfway back to Australia right now.

Bogey will be and is necessary… especially since Donovan is unlikely to continue his supernova playoff performances… he will still be great but to expect 35 plus points a game would be a bit optimistic. I don’t think what we net in a trade of Bogey is likely to be so much better than what we get for JC or Joe.

We can go back and forth on this...but there's just no shot I'm more concerned about our offense than our defense. It's not even a remotely close proposition. If I were to design out a fake scenario that would give me confidence in moving offense for defense, I would have the Jazz play great offense for two full seasons while a man down and also carry that to the playoffs. That's exactly what happened. I don't know what would convince you that we can spare some offense for defense, but what has occurred the past two seasons could not make it more clear what the areas of surplus.

I'm confident we can be elite on offense without Bogey. We did it the year before and did it again without a player that is better and more integral than Bogey. If we had no Bogey and no Conley....yeah that would be different. I'm not preparing for that situation. What I also have confidence in is that we can't defend as currently constituted. To say there would be zero concern would be incorrect, but it has no comparison to my concerns about the defense. We'd get so much more out of having one more good defender than this gigantic surplus of offense.

We don't have to trade Bogey, but if we're not willing to that is a mistake. Of course I would prefer to trade JC (I'm still confident in Ingles), but I don't think the trade value is similar for all the same reasons why you think Bogey is a better player. Bogey's value is much higher because a much better player right now.

 

[homeytennis]

Ibaka and Batum are washed and I believe Serge is earning a bazillion dollars a year which would make the Jazz luxury tax situation worse.

 

[LoPo]

2 questions I have:

#1 is our main goal to win a title or stay relevant (like not become the Kings)?

#2 if our main goal is to stay relevant, I dont think we should take any big risk before the deadline. If our goal is a title, don't we have to make a substantial trade (which comes with risk) before the deadline?

Sent from my SM-G970U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We can go back and forth on this...but there's just no shot I'm more concerned about our offense than our defense. It's not even a remotely close proposition. If I were to design out a fake scenario that would give me confidence in moving offense for defense, I would have the Jazz play great offense for two full seasons while a man down and also carry that to the playoffs. That's exactly what happened. I don't know what would convince you that we can spare some offense for defense, but what has occurred the past two seasons could not make it more clear what the areas of surplus.

I'm confident we can be elite on offense without Bogey. We did it the year before and did it again without a player that is better and more integral than Bogey. If we had no Bogey and no Conley....yeah that would be different. I'm not preparing for that situation. What I also have confidence in is that we can't defend as currently constituted. To say there would be zero concern would be incorrect, but it has no comparison to my concerns about the defense. We'd get so much more out of having one more good defender than this gigantic surplus of offense.

We don't have to trade Bogey, but if we're not willing to that is a mistake. Of course I would prefer to trade JC (I'm still confident in Ingles), but I don't think the trade value is similar for all the same reasons why you think Bogey is a better player. Bogey's value is much higher because a much better player right now.

The trade value comment... in a perfectly efficient market I would agree... but what I think is that you can get something that helps defense with Joe and stuff or JC and stuff... what you can get for Bogey will not be a lot more than what those offers will fetch. The offense downgrade (and yes there will be an offensive downgrade) would be more significant than the defensive upgrade. Swapping out JC might even become an upgrade on both sides of the ball. Folks around here lump in Joe/JC/Bogey like they all equal... it really isn't close. Bogey is on par with Mike or damn close to it.

The trade match with Bogey is tough to find... please come up some realistic hypotheticals and you quickly see the issues. Teams with good two way wings are likely contending and not willing to make a swap. Teams in rebuilding mode or up and comers aren't necessarily able to offer what we want and don't necessarily value what Bogey brings. Swapping Bogey for Hart or RoCo or some of this other stuff is not an upgrade overall. They are solid defenders but not impact defenders... in certain matchups Bogey is a solid defender... but he's always an impactful offensive player.

The Denver series really is not a good sample to base anything off of. That was a ****** defense in an empty arena. Its not surprising we survived when Donovan scored 100 pts a game... it also won't happen again. We were +14 per ORTG last year in the playoffs with Bogey on the court... but yeah I'm sure Niang would have been exactly the same... -10 with Joe... -14 with JC. Niang -9 (Niang was tethered to Rudy so it isn't just a Rudy thing).

I just don't think we are viewing Bogey with the proper respect at all.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ibaka and Batum are washed and I believe Serge is earning a bazillion dollars a year which would make the Jazz luxury tax situation worse.

Joe might be washed too... and the salaries actually match and save us money. Ibaka has played well since coming back from injury. Batum is playing okay but dealing with a heel injury.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I was also told last year that Pat Bev and PJ Tucker were washed... they both did just fine in the playoffs.

 

[Jingled]

We played elite offense against Denver who was a super ****** defensive team. We also had a version of Ingles I don’t think we are getting.

The fact that we didn’t have Conley in a series and we’re elite is not a testament to the fact we should trade Bogey for more defense… without bogey in that series we aren’t elite offensively. He’s a critical part to this offense being a juggernaut. Rudy Gay is a great addition but he can’t ramp up and give us 30+ minutes… he old.

You move “offense” for defense by moving JC or Joe. “Offense” in quotes because JC is high volume inefficient so are you really sacrificing much. JC has no defensive utility… bogey does. I think Joe is checked out… all the insider reports are that he emptied the clip, isn’t locked in, etc. Visibly he looks out of shape (more than normal). He isn’t moving well at all. He’s checked out of a season before when Jacob was diagnosed… I think he’s halfway back to Australia right now.

Bogey will be and is necessary… especially since Donovan is unlikely to continue his supernova playoff performances… he will still be great but to expect 35 plus points a game would be a bit optimistic. I don’t think what we net in a trade of Bogey is likely to be so much better than what we get for JC or Joe.

Which insider reports?

 

[KqWIN]

The trade value comment... in a perfectly efficient market I would agree... but what I think is that you can get something that helps defense with Joe and stuff or JC and stuff... what you can get for Bogey will not be a lot more than what those offers will fetch. The offense downgrade (and yes there will be an offensive downgrade) would be more significant than the defensive upgrade. Swapping out JC might even become an upgrade on both sides of the ball. Folks around here lump in Joe/JC/Bogey like they all equal... it really isn't close. Bogey is on par with Mike or damn close to it.

The trade match with Bogey is tough to find... please come up some realistic hypotheticals and you quickly see the issues. Teams with good two way wings are likely contending and not willing to make a swap. Teams in rebuilding mode or up and comers aren't necessarily able to offer what we want and don't necessarily value what Bogey brings. Swapping Bogey for Hart or RoCo or some of this other stuff is not an upgrade overall. They are solid defenders but not impact defenders... in certain matchups Bogey is a solid defender... but he's always an impactful offensive player.

The Denver series really is not a good sample to base anything off of. That was a ****** defense in an empty arena. Its not surprising we survived when Donovan scored 100 pts a game... it also won't happen again. We were +14 per ORTG last year in the playoffs with Bogey on the court... but yeah I'm sure Niang would have been exactly the same... -10 with Joe... -14 with JC. Niang -9 (Niang was tethered to Rudy so it isn't just a Rudy thing).

I just don't think we are viewing Bogey with the proper respect at all.

If you think they all have similar trade value, sure. Why wouldn't you trade the guy whose worse. I'm just not going to be that guy who will say this guy is way better than the other two, but their trade value is the same. I think Bogey has a much higher perception around the league than both and is clearly having the best season out of all of them. The guy we've been talking about over and over is Smart. There aren't realistic deals for anyone at this point with options so limited, but if Bogey can get you Smart I would do it. I would also do it for Hart, but I think that less realistic at this point. He is having a great year and NOP isn't that dumb where they can't recognize it. If the difference between getting Smart and not is the difference between Bogey and Ingles/Clarkson, we should do it.

I'm not just basing it off of the DEN series. We've been this way for years. It's more often been Conley that's been out, but I don't see a reason to think that we couldn't do the same thing if we had Conley and Bogey was out. I do think you're highly overrated Bogey if you think the offense is going to have a collapse without him. Likewise if you think Bogey is on par with Mike. I don't think it's close on either end. As a total player, Mike is miles ahead of Bogey. I don't base my assessment purely off numbers, but the numbers would highly agree with it. The more analytical you get with Bogey the worse the case gets for him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Which insider reports?

No specific report... this is what Tony Jones has been saying in recent interviews... Larsen as well... not sure if I heard it from Locke as well. That is about as transparent as our media will be on the team. Everyone except Andy is a softee homer. Spence also mentioned it for whatever that is worth.

He's also played just a ton of basketball the last 2 years.... he looks visibly heavier through the mid-section... he is moving worse than he has in other years... he's old AF and he has hinted that he's made enough money and has strong desires to be back in Australia as soon as his career ends. I doubt he sticks around to make the minimum next year... he likely has some cool basketball opportunities in Australia... not sure he can stretch his career out to get another Olympic run in. Sucks but I think he is walking through the finish line tape this year.

 

[campaignist]

If you think they all have similar trade value, sure. Why wouldn't you trade the guy whose worse. I'm just not going to be that guy who will say this guy is way better than the other two, but their trade value is the same. I think Bogey has a much higher perception around the league than both and is clearly having the best season out of all of them. The guy we've been talking about over and over is Smart. There aren't realistic deals for anyone at this point with options so limited, but if Bogey can get you Smart I would do it. I would also do it for Hart, but I think that less realistic at this point. He is having a great year and NOP isn't that dumb where they can't recognize it. If the difference between getting Smart and not is the difference between Bogey and Ingles/Clarkson, we should do it.

I'm not just basing it off of the DEN series. We've been this way for years. It's more often been Conley that's been out, but I don't see a reason to think that we couldn't do the same thing if we had Conley and Bogey was out. I do think you're highly overrated Bogey if you think the offense is going to have a collapse without him. Likewise if you think Bogey is on par with Mike. I don't think it's close on either end. As a total player, Mike is miles ahead of Bogey. I don't base my assessment purely off numbers, but the numbers would highly agree with it. The more analytical you get with Bogey the worse the case gets for him.

Bogey for Smart is a terrible idea. You would have easily the smallest lineup in the league, with a 6’3” power forward. A tiny backcourt is bad enough, an even tinier frontcourt is an absolute nightmare.

 

[KqWIN]

Bogey for Smart is a terrible idea. You would have easily the smallest lineup in the league, with a 6’3” power forward. A tiny backcourt is bad enough, an even tinier frontcourt is an absolute nightmare.

In what ways is Bogey functionally bigger than Smart on defense. Bogey gives no big man value outside of his post ups.

 

[fallenchicken]

I really just don't understand why people are so focused Smart. He's not a need for us at all. If he was on our roster, you'd be trying to trade him.

 

[fallenchicken]

If the Jazz traded Bogie for Smart that would be criminal. The league would have to investigate. It would mean Ainge was undercover and still working for Boston.

 

[KqWIN]

If the Jazz traded Bogie for Smart that would be criminal. The league would have to investigate. It would mean Ainge was undercover and still working for Boston.

Every metric has Smart > Bogey and the consensus player rankings also have Smart > Bogey. Sometimes you've got to get out of your own bubble.

 

[campaignist]

In what ways is Bogey functionally bigger than Smart on defense. Bogey gives no big man value outside of his post ups.

Bruh. If you're insisting on trading Bogey, at least get someone who plays his position. Harrison Barnes, Tobias Harris, whoever. This
puts even more pressure on Rudy on the inside. Give me one example of any starting lineup like this having success. I'm talking 30+ minutes per game, not situational.