Do the Jazz get out of the first round?

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is exactly what will kill us in the playoffs. Why we haven't been developing Butler is beyond me. Ridiculous. And we traded away the other guy we had been working with and was showing promise, in Hughes, for what? NAW? I doubt NAW ever gets any real PT, let alone has any kind of role. I am not sure what they are thinking. Our offensive is predicated on passing and finding the open 3, meaning any and all backcourt players must be at least passably a threat at the 3. I am sure they keep playing Forrest for his better D and the fact that he can break down the defense sometimes. But when they close that out, and get the ball out of his hands, he is nothing but a traffic cone on offense. Butler should have been playing a lot more this year.

The plan will be that he doesn't play in the playoffs.... but then an injury happens or foul trouble and now he's out there not being guarded.

I understood why they picked Forrest over JB but it was inconsistent with the "all in for the playoffs" mantra they sell the fanbase. Forrest shot was always going to be a limiting factor... If you were too far along to play a rookie and didn't want to wait for him then you go get a guy like House to play in his spot. If we had Joe then House could pick up the Forrest minutes.

It likely isn't top 7 or 8 of our issues in the playoffs but it is something to note.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This would go down as the most short-sighted decision in franchise history if we end up selling everything off to mini-LeBron him.

I did have a random stray thought... If Donovan was really out there saying he wanted he wants Rudy out... but his master plan was eventually to ask out to go to NY... it would be kind of hilarious to trade Rudy to NY.

 

[Jazzmix]

I am not going to overract to yesterday's loss. If healthy we can should beat Dallas, Denver or Memphis. I would prefer to avoid Memphis because series against them would be very physical and cost us a lot of energy/injuries. For me two main concerns are: Conley - we need him healthy and playing at the level from the first half of the season and JC - he needs to reign himself and not chuck us out of games, hopefully he gets hot in the playoffs.

 

[outerspacefan]

I believe this Jazz team has peaked long time ago.
The brutal inconsistencies we've been witnessing for a long time are the natural outcome of several players not able to mantain their peak or add new tricks...
Add some overcoaching habits...
Sadly enough I think Gobert/Conley/Bojan/Royce just don't have more to show, and the rest of the NBA have them really scouted to the last bit of their basketball beings.
My guess is that we are not coming out of second round, and most probably we're out in first round.
I just want for Donovan to be healthy and show us the playoff nightmare he can be when he wants to.
Next offseason will be ugly with the Jazz trying to cash assets for players that just do not have anymore the level of athleticism/phisicality needed in today's game...

It will be nice to eat my words if the guys make it though....

 

[KqWIN]

I don't think we're so much more talented than DEN or DAL that we can beat them at a massive coaching disadvantage. I know Kidd is kind of a meme coach, and it's deserved, but he will at least make adjustments.

 

[KqWIN]

I’d hope we’d consider a coaching replacement before we considered a Rudy and Donovan split. But, alas, Rudy will probably have to be the scapegoat for Quin’s shortcomings.

This is Don first franchise, unless you're counting Ryan Smith's wallet as #1. If the Jazz get out in the first round, I think a Don-Rudy split is likely with it much more likely that Rudy is gone. The only way it isn't Rudy is if Don himself demands out first, which is a possibility to be sure. When Rudy gets traded, we probably struggle to make the playoffs and at that point it's just a waiting game until Mitchell demands out.

 

[416Klawzz]

No Rudy gets exploited

 

[infection]

This is Don first franchise, unless you're counting Ryan Smith's wallet as #1. If the Jazz get out in the first round, I think a Don-Rudy split is likely with it much more likely that Rudy is gone. The only way it isn't Rudy is if Don himself demands out first, which is a possibility to be sure. When Rudy gets traded, we probably struggle to make the playoffs and at that point it's just a waiting game until Mitchell demands out.

Therein lies the problem. We’ll move Rudy to go all-in on Don and it will collapse, leaving us with nothing.

 

[KqWIN]

Therein lies the problem. We’ll move Rudy to go all-in on Don and it will collapse, leaving us with nothing.

I think Don will leave in a PG way and not in a Hayward way, which won't leave us with nothing. I never had any delusions that Mitchell would be a Jazz lifer, so I'm not too bothered if/when he demands a trade. It's got to be broken down some way or another....I think I'll look back more harshly on the mistakes that were already made versus a Rudy trade. We have a very talented team, but the complete disregard for defense and Quin's coaching have capped this team more than the talent itself.

 

[infection]

I think Don will leave in a PG way and not in a Hayward way, which won't leave us with nothing. I never had any delusions that Mitchell would be a Jazz lifer, so I'm not too bothered if/when he demands a trade. It's got to be broken down some way or another....I think I'll look back more harshly on the mistakes that were already made versus a Rudy trade. We have a very talented team, but the complete disregard for defense and Quin's coaching have capped this team more than the talent itself.

You’ll get about 50 cents on the dollar by moving Rudy. May get about 65 cents on the dollar moving Donovan. Move Rudy first and you’ll end up making both those moves.

Move Quin and you may get anywhere from 80-120 cents on the dollar.

But we should probably have Rudy be a lifer. But I don’t think we will. I’m afraid we’ll sacrifice the more prolonged relevance he could bring for a really terrible season or two of Donovan and Quin floundering around before we cash in DM for the 60 cents.

 

[The Thriller]

I honestly don’t think so.

I think this team is older and slower.
It’s lost some shooting and playmaking from last year.
The 3D/energy guy has been neglected for too long. We’ve whiffed too much in the draft. Our last two drafts we’ve taken players who don’t even play ahead of players who are absolute studs.
I think there are some chemistry issues either between superstars or between players and the coach.

I think we’re about ready to implode like Portland did tbh. I think players are going to be demanding trades next year. And I wouldn’t blame them. You’re not competing for anything here, the FO has proven to be incompetent, and you never get attention in this small market.

Hope I’m wrong but this team gives me really bad vibes.

 

[jom2003]

I honestly don’t think so.

I think this team is older and slower.
It’s lost some shooting and playmaking from last year.
The 3D/energy guy has been neglected for too long. We’ve whiffed too much in the draft. Our last two drafts we’ve taken players who don’t even play ahead of players who are absolute studs.
I think there are some chemistry issues either between superstars or between players and the coach.

I think we’re about ready to implode like Portland did tbh. I think players are going to be demanding trades next year. And I wouldn’t blame them. You’re not competing for anything here, the FO has proven to be incompetent, and you never get attention in this small market.

Hope I’m wrong but this team gives me really bad vibes.

We had multiple opportunities to retool since 2020 but we decided to run basically the same team for three years in a row. So now retool will look more like a rebuild if it ever comes to that point

 

[jom2003]

This concerns me and it's why I think the Jazz should be experimenting with NAW. This is what 4-on-5 looks like, and for a team that talks about the importance of spacing this is a joke.

If you let Forrest handle the ball it won't be much of a problem cuz it forces the opponent to guard you, which is exactly why a guy like Herb Jones will struggle to see minutes here. If you aren't a ball handler, you'd better be a shooter/floor spacer because our entire offense lives on spacing. Just imagine a guy other than Donovan handling the ball in situations like this, it'd easily become a TO and fast break points on the other end.

 

[Agent#00]

last year at this point in time we were talking about championship, this year 1st round exit lol

still can't believe we didn't do anything past trade deadline

 

[Sean]

The regular season last year was an anomaly - not the postseason collapse. That seems to be par the course.

But really, going back to 2000, the Jazz has been remarkably consistent when they actually do make the playoffs - they're typically slotted in that 4/5 game.

The #1 seed last year was a fluke built out of maybe the flukiest season in NBA history (well outside the bubble...) since so many games were canceled/postponed. It was just not a season indicative of the actual competence. Beyond that, teams like Memphis and Golden State are clearly much better than they were last year.

But I can't help but go back to the 2000 season.

That 2000 season was it for the Stockton and Malone era Jazz as NBA contenders. They finished 2nd in the West, but struggled, like the season before, in the first-round and, like the season before, lost to Portland in the semifinals. That was it - that was the last time the Jazz actually felt like a contender (up until last season's fluke results). Over twenty years of remarkable consistency (in years they made the playoffs):

2001: 4th
2002: 8th
2003: 7th
2007: 4th
2008: 4th
2009: 8th
2010: 5th
2012: 8th
2017: 5th
2018: 5th
2019: 5th
2020: 6th
2021: 1st
2022? Currently 4th

Since that 2000 season, when the Jazz finished 2nd, they've made the playoffs 13 times prior to this season. Seven times, or almost half, they've been in that 4/5 match-up, which they're slotted for at the moment.

It's amazing how consistent this franchise is at being just good but hardly ever great.

Unfortunately, just being good in the regular season frequently translates into being a fairly mediocre playoff team and that's what the Jazz is (and that's being generous), having bowed out of the first/second rounds 13 of their last 14 playoff appearances. The one exception? 2007 when Golden State upset Dallas in the first-round, knocking out the top-seeded Mavs and the Jazz made the WCF where they got completely torched by the Spurs.

 

[homeytennis]

House is riding to the rescue.

 

[KqWIN]

You’ll get about 50 cents on the dollar by moving Rudy. May get about 65 cents on the dollar moving Donovan. Move Rudy first and you’ll end up making both those moves.

Move Quin and you may get anywhere from 80-120 cents on the dollar.

But we should probably have Rudy be a lifer. But I don’t think we will. I’m afraid we’ll sacrifice the more prolonged relevance he could bring for a really terrible season or two of Donovan and Quin floundering around before we cash in DM for the 60 cents.

65 cents is better than zero. I have no delusions that Mitchell will be a lifer. Having Donovan past his current deal is not even a possibility I’m considering because I find it so unlikely. So two things can happen. We can have Donovan for the duration of his contract and get nothing when he leaves or we can trade him. In reality, Don will likely make that decision for us by demanding a trade.

Rudy could be a lifer if we keep paying him max deals. The rest of the league does not value him and I agree we won’t get much back if anything in a trade. It will be a rude awakening when we choose Don…but that’s another inevitability in my mind. There is no discussion in ownership/FO between Rudy and Don. If it comes to that point, they are picking Don. I would go as far to say that Rudy’s future with the team is almost entirely tied to Don’s opinion on him. The FO/ownership might really want to keep Rudy, but they would cave in an instant if Don wants him gone. That’s just how I see things and I don’t consider alternatives where we go against Don’s wishes as realistic. Maybe Don wants to keep Rudy around….but the fact is that if he doesn’t Rudy is gone and Don will be gone a year after he realizes he can’t win without Rudy on this roster.

I don’t even go into the details if these moves are bad or what the correct decision would be. Like I said, it’s just inevitably. Don will leave at some point. And if Don doesn’t want Rudy here, Rudy is gone. If he laid down the demand this summer, Rudy would have already been gone.

Truth is that we badly missed on our opportunity the last few years. We likely won’t have a better opportunity to win in decades…which is why I scoffed at the idea of tightly holding onto a 2028 pick or whatever it was during trade deadline. Having both Don and Rudy on the same team is incredibly rare. It was never going to last forever, so we have to win while we still have them.

 

[KqWIN]

If you let Forrest handle the ball it won't be much of a problem cuz it forces the opponent to guard you, which is exactly why a guy like Herb Jones will struggle to see minutes here. If you aren't a ball handler, you'd better be a shooter/floor spacer because our entire offense lives on spacing. Just imagine a guy other than Donovan handling the ball in situations like this, it'd easily become a TO and fast break points on the other end.

Two problems with that. 1) you’re running your offense through Trent Forrest. 2) teams will easily adapt to playing off him when he has the ball. Forrest has gotten much better at actually being a threat to score with the ball, but it’s mostly by surprising the defense. The more scouting teams do, the worse it gets. Beyond scouting…it’s a complete win for the defense if the best offense in the league turns into Trent Forrest dominating the ball.

Herb Jones to Trent Forrest as shooters and off ball players is not remotely close either. It’s like comparing Ray Allen to Royce O’Neale. Forrest is one of the worst shooters in the entire NBA for a guard. Herb shoots a tad below average on low but not non-existent volume. He’s also a game changing defender whereas Forrest isn’t.

 

[jom2003]

Two problems with that. 1) you’re running your offense through Trent Forrest. 2) teams will easily adapt to playing off him when he has the ball. Forrest has gotten much better at actually being a threat to score with the ball, but it’s mostly by surprising the defense. The more scouting teams do, the worse it gets. Beyond scouting…it’s a complete win for the defense if the best offense in the league turns into Trent Forrest dominating the ball.

Herb Jones to Trent Forrest as shooters and off ball players is not remotely close either. It’s like comparing Ray Allen to Royce O’Neale. Forrest is one of the worst shooters in the entire NBA for a guard. Herb shoots a tad below average on low but not non-existent volume. He’s also a game changing defender whereas Forrest isn’t.

Talking about the system, not the player. I'm the one who said Jones will be perennial DPOY candidate so I agree with most things you said.

Just trying to say that Herb Jones wouldn't even get minutes under Quin because he's not a ball handler. Forrest is a PG and will at least draw his defenders attention when he has the ball in his hand, which is why he has no trouble seeing the floor. Non-shooters will always struggle to find a role here because their defenders can just cheat off of them in the corner and create a trap like what you saw in the pictures. And just don't expect guys other than Donovan find a solution for you when that happens.

When we acquire Bogey and Conley in 2019, we set ourselves for a lineup with three guys who can't create space consistently for themselves(Rudy/Conley/Bogey) so that fourth guy has to stretch the floor well enough for the offense to flow. Therefore Royce's been glued to the starting lineup ever since 2019 purely because of his ability to shoot the 3s/stretch the floor. imagine how many weakside closeout or pick n roll opportunities would have disappeared for Conley/Bogey if we replace Royce with Oni/forrest/favors standing in the corner for their defenders to cheat off

 

[Agent#00]

dear Butler, we need you to speed up your development. you have played some NBA minutes already. you are not a rookie anymore