When (if) those cities fall, all provisions are seized by the invading Russian forces, the residents gather in town squares to boldly waive Ukrainian flags, shout at the invaders to go home until they are violently dispersed, and the Ukrainian army goes to work attacking entrenched positions around the city in the effort to win it back. When a Ukrainian city falls, there is no reason to believe it won't be exactly like the Russian occupied city of Kherson.
If anywhere in Ukraine will fight to the bitter end, even if there is nothing left but rubble, it will be Mariupol. When Putin claimed this invasion was to de-nazi Ukraine, it was Mariupol he was referring to. Mariupol is being fiercely defended by the Azov Battalion,and they are straight up nationalist, socialist, white supremacist nazis who wear patches from the WWII German SS. Everything around Mariupol is now Russian controlled but Mariupol itself has still not fallen.
I think this is completely and totally wrong. First, it isn't about having superior force but being able to bring superior force to a battle. It is about logistics and Russia doesn't have it. They don't have enough trucks and many of the ones they do have were stuck in a convoy north of Kyiv. Russia relies heavily on rail to transport its military hardware and troops but within hours the Ukrainians blew up all the rail lines leading in to Ukraine. Now saboteurs have started blowing up rail lines in Belarus. Russia can't even fly in troops and supplies because they don't have air superiority over Ukraine. The only area Russia seems able to get any supplies to is the southern area because they still have infrastructure into Crimea. On the other side, the western world is supplying the Ukrainians and there are a lot more Ukrainians than Russians in Ukraine.
If anywhere in Ukraine will fight to the bitter end, even if there is nothing left but rubble, it will be Mariupol. When Putin claimed this invasion was to de-nazi Ukraine, it was Mariupol he was referring to. Mariupol is being fiercely defended by the Azov Battalion,and they are straight up nationalist, socialist, white supremacist nazis who wear patches from the WWII German SS. Everything around Mariupol is now Russian controlled but Mariupol itself has still not fallen.
I agree that they are not the beginning of the 4th Reich but only that they've been fighting Russians to keep Mariupol part of Ukraine since 2014 when Russian-backed separatists took control of the city and the Azov Battalion formed to take the city back. I don't see them giving up the fight for Mariupol. I think they will fight, as you said, until the bitter end. Nazis and Russians don't seem too fond of each other.
I think that is kind of the only hope, that they lose morale. If Putin has his way he will continue to push. Frankly they haven't really engaged with the full force of their military yet, they have about 900k total troops with 2 mill reservists, and they have only deployed 150k-ish in the front and have only engaged maybe 1/5 of their arsenal. As Al stated, logistics is the concern for them now. If they can figure out how to support their troops in the field and can deploy even half of their current enlisted force with 1/2 of their arsenal this will take a different turn. The question comes, at what point is Putin willing to escalate to move long-distance means of attack, including potentially low-yield nuclear attacks. How crazy is he? Remains to be seen, it would appear.
Regarding the numbers you mentioned, the vast majority of them are just bodies with little or no training. Beau explains it well:I think that is kind of the only hope, that they lose morale. If Putin has his way he will continue to push. Frankly they haven't really engaged with the full force of their military yet, they have about 900k total troops with 2 mill reservists, and they have only deployed 150k-ish in the front and have only engaged maybe 1/5 of their arsenal. As Al stated, logistics is the concern for them now. If they can figure out how to support their troops in the field and can deploy even half of their current enlisted force with 1/2 of their arsenal this will take a different turn. The question comes, at what point is Putin willing to escalate to move long-distance means of attack, including potentially low-yield nuclear attacks. How crazy is he? Remains to be seen, it would appear.
Here is an interesting discussion around nukes in general and low-yield in particular.
'Limited' Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would Be Catastrophic
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of nuclear deterrencewww.scientificamerican.com
Not sure if expressing shock and outrage is enough to deter their use.
I think that is kind of the only hope, that they lose morale. If Putin has his way he will continue to push. Frankly they haven't really engaged with the full force of their military yet, they have about 900k total troops with 2 mill reservists, and they have only deployed 150k-ish in the front and have only engaged maybe 1/5 of their arsenal. As Al stated, logistics is the concern for them now. If they can figure out how to support their troops in the field and can deploy even half of their current enlisted force with 1/2 of their arsenal this will take a different turn. The question comes, at what point is Putin willing to escalate to move long-distance means of attack, including potentially low-yield nuclear attacks. How crazy is he? Remains to be seen, it would appear.
Here is an interesting discussion around nukes in general and low-yield in particular.
'Limited' Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would Be Catastrophic
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the limits of nuclear deterrence
Not sure if expressing shock and outrage is enough to deter their use.
I doubt that launching a nuke in Russia is any less complicated than launching one here. It's a LOT more than just pushing a button.
Yep. Guarantee you they have plenty of people trained to do that.
I have seen Australian media pushing the idea of a pending coup. You can find that idea from media based in other countries but not to the same level. For some reason the Australians have decided to run with that football.
www.skynews.com.au
www.skynews.com.au
I have seen Australian media pushing the idea of a pending coup. You can find that idea from media based in other countries but not to the same level. For some reason the Australians have decided to run with that football.
Putin’s replacement in potential coup revealed
Russia’s business and political elite are plotting to remove Vladimir Putin from power and re-establish economic and diplomatic links with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Moscow coup: Ukrainian intelligence claims Russian elite planning to ‘overthrow’ Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be ousted from the Kremlin according to a bombshell claim from Ukrainian intelligence. On a Facebook post uploaded on Sunday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said Russia's elites are considering "removing...
I'm not denying anything you are saying. My comment was more related to the other thread that strayed into the power of influence. Given that I have seen that sort of content coming out of Australia, it isn't surprising to me that if someone on this board were to float the idea of a coup against Putin it would be from someone with a greater exposure to that market/content even if you hate or distrust one of the outlets purveying it.
Russia (then the Soviet Union) was hated by the US/UK in the 1940s, but they were believed to be a temporary ally against Germany. Germany and Italy were thought to be more redeemable, AFAICT. I think you're correct about Japan.
Maybe not. You have to remember that we went to war against Russia, and had troops in Russia fighting Russians from 1918 through 1920. In that war we were fighting side-by-side with Japanese forces. Ultimately we got pwned and subsequently the United States refused to recognize the Soviet Union as a nation until 1934.
