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Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

On Zach Lowes latest podcast he says his sources are telling him nothing is imminent on the Gobert front. Says the Jazz are asking a lot for him, and it seems no one is offering enough to get them to bite.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It didn't go over my head at all... but yeah if you look at the theory of drafting and text books you could say "well actually, the EV of pick #9 is not much different than pick #4, so Kings should take #9, #25 for #4 and they'd be much better off". But in the real world pick #4 is going to be traded for much more value than that. Why?

So if you wanted to be the draft nerd EV of picks guy... you could absolutely leverage #4 for at least #11, 2023 NY first, and likely something extra. So you can trade in a $100 mystery grab bag with an EV of $70 for a couple $50 grab bags with an EV of $40 all ****ing day if you want... but on the high end you might get 3-4 $50 grab bags... Why?

Its because the EV of draft picks is nice and a cute theory that doesn't apply directly to real-life NBA trades. Can't remember all the specifics but those articles are kinda funny cuz they will be like "to get from 25 to 15 you should only have to give up two seconds if you follow the EV of draft picks".

Its also hilarious that the practical application of this theory is what allowed us to trade Lyles and 24 to get Donovan... I mean Denver did the EV computations and Lyles plus 24 had and EV that was slightly higher than pick 13.

Your assessment of Davion is fine and all but he was a rookie. I get he was older... but aren't you the guy sitting here saying we should be trying to get guys that can increase their value? Aren't you saying we should look for Wiggins projects. Maybe Davion only has a 20% chance of being a 37%ish 3p shooter... but if he does figure that out he's a much better player than Carter. Carter can't drive and create for others at all. Also - lets go look at Jevon's stats as a 23 yo rookie... ohhhh he shot 30% and 33% on threes... that is way better than Davion who was... 42% and 32%... its almost like there was an adjustment and Jevon needed some time to figure it out. As far as how functional it was as a role player... well Carter hit 36% on catch and shoot 3s and Davion was 33%.

You can have your nickels for the guys that didn't figure it out... you get a $1 for the ones that do and we need $1s. I mean if he turns out to shoot it as well as Carter then he's a super version of Carter... I don't think it is unreasonable to think he could do it... since the guy you comp'd him to in fact made a bigger leap. A dynamic version of Carter that can actually dribble and create a bit would be a solid low level starter. He may not do it but its a fine bet to make... if you wanted to separate him out of the deal I think you could easily get a pick in the 20s for him.

Its just funny you think it goes over my head... you are making the simp mistake of thinking Donovan is worth way more than he actually is if you think this trade is HORRID. Its in the window of fair.
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If you don't want me to think something goes over your head, do not ask dumb questions like "based on what" out of pure bad faith. There's only two reasons you would ask that, out of bad faith or because explicit language flies over your head.

I never said that draft picks need to have equal EV to the player(s) they are traded for. I know that's not what how trades work. My point is these assets, especially the #4 pick and Davion Mitchell, are not as good as being advertised. #4 is being oversold because there is a name to it and it's really easy to fall in love with draft prospects. Regardless of how I or anyone else about Ivey/other player, I know what to expect from a #4 pick based on history. So no, I'm not buying into "the top 4 guys are all projected to be very good" so we can expect a very good player. Every player drafted in the top 5 every year is projected to be good, but it doesn't work out that way. That's not me being negative, that's being more realistic. There is a balance between thinking about a specific prospect versus the draft position, and it changes depending on the year/player...but when you fall in love with a certain guy I think you talk yourself into thinking that the pick that gets him is more valuable than it is....both from a trade value and outcomes/EV standpoint. It's natural, and I'm aware of it because I do it myself. I really, really like Chet as a prospect. I think he's going to be a multi-all star, all NBA type player. But I also have to be aware of the reality that Marvin Williams is a fairly median outcome for a #2 overall pick.

Davion is overrated as a player/prospect. If you peg him as a starter, you're probably being lower on him then the consensus. Me personally, I think being a starter is a higher end outcome for him. He's way more likely to be a 15 MPG player on a winning team, and he still needs to work up to that. I think he will, but that's kind of what I'm expecting from him. The way people talk about Davion, he is a basically a no go in a trade for me. I just know that you're giving up too much for what you're going to get back. I do like second draft types of guys, but Davion isn't coming at that second draft price. He's coming at the, "guy who we just drafted and we love" price.
 
Jingled said:
On Zach Lowes latest podcast he says his sources are telling him nothing is imminent on the Gobert front. Says the Jazz are asking a lot for him, and it seems no one is offering enough to get them to bite.
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The question is which team is motivated enough to pay the full price. It sounds like Chicago is willing to go a long way if they're moving players to acquire picks to put in a package.
 
KqWIN said:
If you don't want me to think something goes over your head, do not ask dumb questions like "based on what" out of pure bad faith. There's only two reasons you would ask that, out of bad faith or because explicit language flies over your head.

I never said that draft picks need to have equal EV to the player(s) they are traded for. I know that's not what how trades work. My point is these assets, especially the #4 pick and Davion Mitchell, are not as good as being advertised. #4 is being oversold because there is a name to it and it's really easy to fall in love with draft prospects. Regardless of how I or anyone else about Ivey/other player, I know what to expect from a #4 pick based on history. So no, I'm not buying into "the top 4 guys are all projected to be very good" so we can expect a very good player. Every player drafted in the top 5 every year is projected to be good, but it doesn't work out that way. That's not me being negative, that's being more realistic. There is a balance between thinking about a specific prospect versus the draft position, and it changes depending on the year/player...but when you fall in love with a certain guy I think you talk yourself into thinking that the pick that gets him is more valuable than it is....both from a trade value and outcomes/EV standpoint. It's natural, and I'm aware of it because I do it myself. I really, really like Chet as a prospect. I think he's going to be a multi-all star, all NBA type player. But I also have to be aware of the reality that Marvin Williams is a fairly median outcome for a #2 overall pick.

Davion is overrated as a player/prospect. If you peg him as a starter, you're probably being lower on him then the consensus. Me personally, I think being a starter is a higher end outcome for him. He's way more likely to be a 15 MPG player on a winning team, and he still needs to work up to that. I think he will, but that's kind of what I'm expecting from him. The way people talk about Davion, he is a basically a no go in a trade for me. I just know that you're giving up too much for what you're going to get back. I do like second draft types of guys, but Davion isn't coming at that second draft price. He's coming at the, "guy who we just drafted and we love" price.
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I don't agree. The #4 has a lot of value. 3-4 teams are trying to move up to that spot reportedly. It may not be just for Ivey. If you don't like Ivey as a prospect then you flip that pick for value and slide down... it is clear many do like him. He's a pretty damn good prospect. Saw The Athletic anonymous scout thing and they call him the best athlete in the draft and compare his athleticism to Wall and Westbrook. If that comes with a passable jumper... He also played with two traditional bigs and college basketball has terrible spacing issues. Ivey would be a top 5 prospects in most drafts imo.

The NY package of Quickley, Toppin, firsts in 23/25/27/29? plus #11 might be a bit ambitious... but even that is likely to yield a mix of late lotto picks but many years out. Getting #4 plus the 23 kings pick is a pretty solid start. Would I want another pick? Sure... but at that point it gets a little rich don't you think? In the NY trade you are likely taking back some semi-undesirable salary.

If I am ranking that package and the value I would say it goes in this order:

- #4 - Easily flippable for #9, #20 and a future pick - #11, 2023 first, and maybe one more asset - #10, Deni, and a pick. And there is a chance OKC sees a draft where they can strike and goes #12 and like 3-4 future picks. Some drafts they won't be able to move up even if they offer like 6-7 firsts.

- 2023 Kings first... Kangs gonna Kang. Sabonis Fox and Don is fun... they will have the league's worst defense. That team wins 35-40 games if healthy imo. One injury and they are right back to the low 30s.

- Barnes - He can be flipped for a mid first if we want... he could also be extended and we can try and win now.

- Davion - Still a decent prospect... I might rather have Quickley than Davion but they are in a similar tier. I don't think he has more value than he did to start the year... I think if you wanted a pick in the teens a team like Houston would likely do that.

I think you are getting the equivalent of like 2 late lotto picks and 3-4 middle firsts... which is much closer to fair than HORRID to me.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
The question is which team is motivated enough to pay the full price. It sounds like Chicago is willing to go a long way if they're moving players to acquire picks to put in a package.
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Or will Danny lower the asking price... it sounds like he may be doing the Morey ask for too much ****... then when it comes down to the deadline the lower the price.

I agree with negotiating hard for the best return but you may have to settle if you want to get something done.
 
If the Jazz traded Mitchell and got back #4, plus 2 FRPs and a pick swap from the Kings, I'd consider that a decent return.

It also sounds as though OKC might be willing to trade back from #2 to #4, meaning Banchero might be attainable.
 
According to Austin Horton the Jazz are actively shopping Gobert and trying to include 3rd teams to bolster the trades.

I think Utah stinks of desperation. I think they ideally want to trade Gobert and make Mitchell as happy as possible. Teams are going to use that to their advantage to low-ball Utah. My guess is that teams who seriously want Gobert will make their real offers against the clock on draft day. They will attempt to force Ryan Smith into saying yes to a mediocre deal under pressure.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
According to Austin Horton the Jazz are actively shopping Gobert and trying to include 3rd teams to bolster the trades.

I think Utah stinks of desperation. I think they ideally want to trade Gobert and make Mitchell as happy as possible. Teams are going to use that to their advantage to low-ball Utah. My guess is that teams who seriously want Gobert will make their real offers against the clock on draft day. They will attempt to force Ryan Smith into saying yes to a mediocre deal under pressure.
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Reaching out to teams and simultaneously demanding as much as they are is not a recipe for success.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
According to Austin Horton the Jazz are actively shopping Gobert and trying to include 3rd teams to bolster the trades.

I think Utah stinks of desperation. I think they ideally want to trade Gobert and make Mitchell as happy as possible. Teams are going to use that to their advantage to low-ball Utah. My guess is that teams who seriously want Gobert will make their real offers against the clock on draft day. They will attempt to force Ryan Smith into saying yes to a mediocre deal under pressure.
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I also think contract, position, and age work against us getting a great return. We all assume no decline and great health... but reality is there is a ton of risk on Rudy's current deal. It will get discounted. He will also have a more limited market in part because of the position he plays.

I do think teams should consider Rudy's loyalty and willingness to give his next team 100% just like he has to us. Guys like Jimmy Butler are easier to fit on court but would only consider certain destinations and wouldn't buy in just anywhere.

I'm guessing the best offers we have are:

Vuc, Williams, 18, White and maybe some seconds or they take Rudy Gay
Capela, Collins, 16, Charlotte pick - or - Bogey/Heurter swap

Outside chance Toronto is offering OG and Trent Jr.

I'm 50/50 on whether or not I think we settle.
 
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