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How Bad will the Jazz Defense Be This Year?

SoberasHotRod

SoberasHotRod

Well-Known Member
2025 Award Winner
I compiled some defensive stats for some of our players. I added in the numbers for our best and worst players from our team last year as a comparison (typically Gobert was our best and Mitchell was our worst):
1664820788607.png
- Conley, Clarkson, and Gay primarily played with Gobert last year. Specifically I think their On/Off defensive numbers are reflective of this.
- Sexton only played 11 games, so I'm not sure how much we can pull from his numbers.
- The numbers on Vanderbilt look like he is a good man defender, but not a good team defender.
- Overall we have mostly ok or bad defenders, however we don't have any defenders quite as bad as Bogey or Mitchell were last year.
 
Can't really compare raw defensive ratings across teams, especially when there's a Rudy Gobert involved. Using Darko projections and my own minutes, I have the Jazz around about a -0.8 defensive rating relative to league average....which would have put them around 18th last year.

For the record, I think this is where the Jazz will have lingering overrated effects. I think some of the players we got are better at defense than they are given credit for (Lauri and Olynyk in particular), but some of the returning players are much worse than they are on paper (Conley and Gay namely). We also lost some bad defenders like Bogey that will help.
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
Question. Will the perimeter defense be better, worse, or indifferent?
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The perimeter defense was bad by design...and it works during the regular season as long as you have Rudy Gobert. We're not going to see it tested in the playoffs so it's kind of a moot question. The Jazz perimeter defense would have been infinitely better even with the same players if the didn't have Quin's bad habits hardwired in.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I compiled some defensive stats for some of our players. I added in the numbers for our best and worst players from our team last year as a comparison (typically Gobert was our best and Mitchell was our worst):
View attachment 13119
- Conley, Clarkson, and Gay primarily played with Gobert last year. Specifically I think their On/Off defensive numbers are reflective of this.
- Sexton only played 11 games, so I'm not sure how much we can pull from his numbers.
- The numbers on Vanderbilt look like he is a good man defender, but not a good team defender.
- Overall we have mostly ok or bad defenders, however we don't have any defenders quite as bad as Bogey or Mitchell were last year.
Click to expand...
Bottom 5 is my guess.
 
My only hope for the defense not being *** was for Kessler to have some kind of crazy presence for a rookie, but I dont think that happens after watching his first game.
 
Also, Locke mentioned this on the pod today and I agree, if Vanderbilt is going to be crashing the glass like a madman every possession we are going to get completely burnt in transition defense.
 
The whole take foul rule is going to be fascinating to watch league wide. Are teams going to completely abandon offensive rebounding even more than they already did?
 
KqWIN said:
Can't really compare raw defensive ratings across teams, especially when there's a Rudy Gobert involved. Using Darko projections and my own minutes, I have the Jazz around about a -0.8 defensive rating relative to league average....which would have put them around 18th last year.

For the record, I think this is where the Jazz will have lingering overrated effects. I think some of the players we got are better at defense than they are given credit for (Lauri and Olynyk in particular), but some of the returning players are much worse than they are on paper (Conley and Gay namely). We also lost some bad defenders like Bogey that will help.
Click to expand...

I saw the Darko ratings in the other thread. Thanks for sharing. All of the different metrics give part of the story.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
My only hope for the defense not being *** was for Kessler to have some kind of crazy presence for a rookie, but I dont think that happens after watching his first game.
Click to expand...

We don't have any rim protectors on our team. Any team that can get to the rim is going to score a lot of points against us.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Bottom 5 is my guess.
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Yeah, that's been my guess all along. Going through the numbers makes me think we could be slightly better based on some players being more ok than I gave them credit. However, when taking in to consideration our giant hole of no rim protection I'm reassured that we'll be bad.
 
I think it's hard to know how good we were because we have not played a normal defense for the last 7+ years. I think Olynyk-Vando-Markkanen is a better defensive frontcourt than you might expect. It won't be the Rudy show anymore, but we'll have multiple big bodies and more importantly we won't have 4 players who play no help defense.
 
We are about 10% in to the season and the Jazz have the 8th best defensive rating. This is blowing my mind a little.

It seems like our defensive strategy is to foul on every possession and the refs will get tired of blowing their whistle eventually.

Really though, it's been impressive. We have some length and players are being disruptive and playing hard and physical.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
We are about 10% in to the season and the Jazz have the 8th best defensive rating. This is blowing my mind a little.

It seems like our defensive strategy is to foul on every possession and the refs will get tired of blowing their whistle eventually.

Really though, it's been impressive. We have some length and players are being disruptive and playing hard and physical.
Click to expand...
Markannen has been a revelation on defense, way beyond advertised. Maybe he can sustain it, but likely he will regress at least a little toward the mean. But at this point, who knows? Could keep it up all year and be in the running for everything, MIP, DPOY, and MVP.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Markannen has been a revelation on defense, way beyond advertised. Maybe he can sustain it, but likely he will regress at least a little toward the mean. But at this point, who knows? Could keep it up all year and be in the running for everything, MIP, DPOY, and MVP.
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This... as impressive as the offense has been I just thought he was a Bogey like sieve on D. Very much the opposite. Doesn't block a ton of shots but moves his feet and gets in the play. The way he competes for boards has been wildly impressive to me. He always gets back in the play and competes on the glass... so if he doesn't get it someone else can swoop in and nab it.

Overall the kid looks like he has matured and is like a perfect market fit (not the white guy thing per se.. the fact he has a young family is serious and looking for his opportunity to take more of the spotlight... the cold mountainous climate may not bother him either).

Just an FYI he is not extension eligible and wouldn't sign one if he was. He will likely double his salary when his current 3 year deal is over. The cap will have gone up by like 50% in addition to his improvement. I can see him being very interested in staying here though as it seems to be a great fit.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Markannen has been a revelation on defense, way beyond advertised. Maybe he can sustain it, but likely he will regress at least a little toward the mean. But at this point, who knows? Could keep it up all year and be in the running for everything, MIP, DPOY, and MVP.
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Yes, let's double down on this ridiculous over-reactive fantasy. The Jazz end the season at 64-18, far and away the best team in the league. They have the #1 seed throughout the playoffs. Markannen puts up a stat line of 26/11/4/2/2 with only 2 TO per game and leads the league in DBPM and most other defensive stats, and he wins MIP, DPOY, and MVP and finals MVP all in the same season. And he comes off the bench for exactly the number of games he needs to and wins the 6MOY as well. First major award sweep in league history. And Hardy also wins COTY. And 5 Jazz players make up the all NBA 1st team. Yes, that is definitely where this is all headed! **** the tank, I am on the Lauri-train mother****ers!!! Choooo-choooooooooo!!!
 
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LogGrad98 said:
Yes, let's double down on this didiculous over-reactive fantasy. The Jazz end the season at 64-18, far and away the best team in the league. They have the #1 seed throughout the playoffs. Markannen puts up a stat line of 26/11/4/2/2 with only 2 TO per game and leads the league in DBPM and most other defensive stats, and he wins MIP, DPOY, and MVP and finals MVP all in the same season. And he comes off the bench for exactly the number of games he needs to and wins the 6MOY as well. First major award sweep in league history. And Hardy also wins COTY. And 5 Jazz players make up the all NBA 1st team. Yes, that is definitely where this is all headed! **** the tank, I am on the Lauri-train mother****ers!!! Choooo-choooooooooo!!!
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Sounds good to me. The kool aid is strong...... and yummy.
 
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