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How Bad will the Jazz Defense Be This Year?

Here are the defensive metrics I posted in the OP, but for this season so far:

1669911482385.png

There are some really interesting numbers in here.

- Gay with unbelievably good defensive numbers and Simone with unbelievably bad defensive numbers. Did losing Gay make us a much worse defensive team, or did we just happen to become a worse defensive team when Gay got injured and it's messing with the numbers?
- As already discussed on this board, the Vanderbilt numbers are real bad.
- Lauri is having his best defensive season of his career. The offensive load he's taken on is pretty incredible, but to improve his defense this much is really remarkable.
- Our best defensive players tend to be our worst offensive players.
- Sexton with good individual defensive impact, but bad team defensive impact.
- Ochai and NAW haven't played enough real rotation minutes to include them, but I was curious so looked them up as well.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Here are the defensive metrics I posted in the OP, but for this season so far:

View attachment 13461

There are some really interesting numbers in here.

- Gay with unbelievably good defensive numbers and Simone with unbelievably bad defensive numbers. Did losing Gay make us a much worse defensive team, or did we just happen to become a worse defensive team when Gay got injured and it's messing with the numbers?
- As already discussed on this board, the Vanderbilt numbers are real bad.
- Lauri is having his best defensive season of his career. The offensive load he's taken on is pretty incredible, but to improve his defense this much is really remarkable.
- Our best defensive players tend to be our worst offensive players.
- Sexton with good individual defensive impact, but bad team defensive impact.
- Ochai and NAW haven't played enough real rotation minutes to include them, but I was curious so looked them up as well.
Click to expand...
Ochai looked really really good defensively last night. It was only like 3 possessions though so doesn't mean much but it was still some very impressive defense.
 
Simone definitely always seems kind of lost on the court. Maybe it's a language barrier thing?
 
Gay is kind of weird.

My eye test definitely says his length has helped defensively, but he has absolutely no hustle to grab loose balls.

I'm sure it also helps that Gay was playing during the good stretch and hasnt played during the bad stretch.
 
I will say I do think currently NAW is our best perimter defender. For a while I thought it was THT, but I think THT is more specialized in his defensive strengths whereas NAW is a bit more well rounded.

I do feel like NAW could turn the corner at some point. Could be a really valuable role player if his jumper ever comes around. Could be our poor man's Lonzo.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Gay is kind of weird.

My eye test definitely says his length has helped defensively, but he has absolutely no hustle to grab loose balls.

I'm sure it also helps that Gay was playing during the good stretch and hasnt played during the bad stretch.
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Gay had really good defensive numbers last year as well. I wrote it off to him playing most of his minutes with Gobert. Now I'm starting to wonder a little bit more. He definitely doesn't seem to be what I think of as a great defender. He isn't super active and seemingly involved. Maybe he's just good at getting his large body in good defensive positions and anticipating where he needs to be on the court. Maybe he is the anti-Vanderbilt.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Gay had really good defensive numbers last year as well. I wrote it off to him playing most of his minutes with Gobert. Now I'm starting to wonder a little bit more. He definitely doesn't seem to be what I think of as a great defender. He isn't super active and seemingly involved. Maybe he's just good at getting his large body in good defensive positions and anticipating where he needs to be on the court. Maybe he is the anti-Vanderbilt.
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Keep in mind Gay has played most of his minutes with Kessler this season.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I will say I do think currently NAW is our best perimter defender. For a while I thought it was THT, but I think THT is more specialized in his defensive strengths whereas NAW is a bit more well rounded.

I do feel like NAW could turn the corner at some point. Could be a really valuable role player if his jumper ever comes around. Could be our poor man's Lonzo.
Click to expand...
I like NAW as a POA defender.
His passing is nothing like Lonzo though.
 
One Brow said:
So, that's why Kessler's numbers are that good? If you're in the lead, you're usually not riding someone else's coattails.
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Wow.

Okay so first, let's get a couple obvious points out of the way:

1. Playing mostly in lineups featuring a great defender will boost your on/off defensive metrics.
2. Rudy Gay is not in the same stratosphere as Walker Kessler on defense.

And let's get another point out of the way that I think anybody watching will agree with:

3. Teams have gotten a lot smarter about attacking the Jazz with Kessler in the game over the past few weeks, whereas at the start of the season guys were attacking him on drives quite often and getting shut down.

The conclusion: Playing mostly with Kessler during ONLY the early part of the season will make your on/off defensive metrics look great compared to the rest of the team, including Kessler himself. It does not mean Rudy Gay has been a good defender - as the eye test would also confirm, quite frankly.
 
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MT Steve said:
Playing exclusively with Kessler during ONLY the early part of the season will make your on/off defensive metrics look great compared to the rest of the team, including Kessler himself. It does not mean Rudy Gay has been a good defender - as the eye test would also confirm, quite frankly.
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So, Kessler has even better on/off metrics than Gay over the part of the season where they played together? Because, under your explanation, we should see a defensive drop-off when Gay is on the floor and Kessler is not.

As for the eye test, eyes tend to be subjective and prey to confirmation bias.

Saint Cy of JFC said:
Almost as stupid as they would have to be not to read the sarcasm
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Spoilsport.
 
One Brow said:
So, Kessler has even better on/off metrics than Gay over the part of the season where they played together?
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See point 3 in my post.

One Brow said:
Because, under your explanation, we should see a defensive drop-off when Gay is on the floor and Kessler is not.
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Gay has played most of his minutes with Kessler and has since been injured. The data on Gay w/o Kessler does not exist in a meaningful sample size.
 
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MT Steve said:
You didn't understand my post. Read it again.
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I understood it. It was quite simple, easy to read, and contained straight-forward thinking that was not in any way complex or nuanced. It was an easy read. That's why I didn't point out any questionable parts, and only noted the obvious conclusion, which you seem reluctant to confirm.
 
One Brow said:
I understood it. It was quite simple, easy to read, and contained straight-forward thinking that was not in any way complex or nuanced. It was an easy read. That's why I didn't point out any questionable parts, and only noted the obvious conclusion, which you seem reluctant to confirm.
Click to expand...
See my edited post and try again.
 
MT Steve said:
Gay has played almost all of his minutes with Kessler and has since been injured. The data on Gay w/o Kessler does not exist in a meaningful sample size.
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Sometimes math is not my strong point. When I saw in SoberasHotRod's post that Gay had played 110 minutes with Kessler on-court, and 78 minutes off court, I completely missed that 110 minutes was a substantial amount of time, and 78 was completely insubstantial.
 
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