How Bad will the Jazz Defense Be This Year?

[MT Steve]

Sometimes math is not my strong point. When I saw in SoberasHotRod's post that Gay had played 110 minutes with Kessler on-court, and 78 minutes off court, I completely missed that 110 minutes was a substantial amount of time, and 78 was completely insubstantial.

I feel like you're being obtuse at this point.

78 minutes is a small sample size. I never claimed that 110 isn't small as well, just that Rudy Gay's overall defensive rating is heavily inflated by enjoying most of his minutes on the court with Kessler. If we want to pretend these are both large sample sizes (which they are not), then, to go back your earlier post:

Because, under your explanation, we should see a defensive drop-off when Gay is on the floor and Kessler is not.

I mean, we do. 20 points per 100 possessions worse on defense when Gay is on the floor and Kessler is not, compared to when they're both on the floor.

Those stats are all from early in the season, back when teams were attacking Kessler on drives to the rim a lot more than they have over the last few weeks when he's been in the game, which has minimized a lot of his defensive impact.

 

[One Brow]

I mean, we do. 20 points per 100 possessions worse on defense when Gay is on the floor and Kessler is not, compared to when they're both on the floor.

Looking at games through Nov. 9, numbers from NBA.com:

Combined defensive rating: 85.4 (9.2 mins/game)
Gay overall defensive rating: 90.6 (15.8 min/game)
Kessler overall defensive rating: 95.8 (14.9 min/game)

Explain to me again how Kessler made Gay's numbers better simply from sharing the court together. My math is not up to the task.

 

[MT Steve]

Looking at games through Nov. 9, numbers from NBA.com:

Combined defensive rating: 85.4 (9.2 mins/game)
Gay overall defensive rating: 90.6 (15.8 min/game)
Kessler overall defensive rating: 95.8 (14.9 min/game)

Explain to me again how Kessler made Gay's numbers better simply from sharing the court together. My math is not up to the task.

As a disclaimer, this is a bit of a silly exercise because of how small the sample size, but:

Gay/Kessler on court together: 88.89 DRTG
Gay on court w/o Kessler: 108.64 DRTG

Granted, opposing teams shooting 25% from 3 while Rudy Gay was on the court probably had more to do with Rudy Gay's defensive metrics than sharing the court with Kessler did. In fact, I'll even say I probably did overstate the share-the-court-with-Kessler factor.

Opposing teams shooting 7 percentage points below the worst 3 pt shooting team in the NBA is one of those crazy outliers that can occur over a small sample size.

 

[One Brow]

As a disclaimer, this is a bit of a silly exercise because of how small the sample size, but:

Gay/Kessler on court together: 88.89 DRTG
Gay on court w/o Kessler: 108.64 DRTG

Based on games through Nov 9 (calculations based on previous numbers):
Gay/Kessler on court together: 85.4 DRTG
Gay on court w/o Kessler: 97.8 DRTG
Kessler on court w/o Gay: 112.6 DRTG

Granted, opposing teams shooting 25% from 3 while Rudy Gay was on the court probably had more to do with Rudy Gay's defensive metrics than sharing the court with Kessler did. In fact, I'll even say I probably did overstate the share-the-court-with-Kessler factor.


Opposing teams shooting 7 percentage points below the worst 3 pt shooting team in the NBA is one of those crazy outliers that can occur over a small sample size.

I agree here.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

We are now a little more than 40% in to the season and we are 25th in defensive rating.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

How much worse can it get?

 

[LogGrad98]

We are now a little more than 40% in to the season and we are 25th in defensive rating.

Pretty much as expected. We have a decent shot of beating some teams because our offense can go nuclear, but we aren't taking anyone out defensively that is for sure.

 

[LogGrad98]

How much worse can it get?

Exactly 5 worse.

 

[HeatCheck]

The defensive energy is completely gone. Guys just standing around letting the Cavs do whatever they wanted.
What is wrong with Vando? He doesn't even look like the same guy that started the season.
Jazz roster isn't full of superstars so they need 100% effort every night. Maybe that's just too big of an ask.

 

[Eddie Zero]

Well it is pretty terrible compared to what Cleveland has to offer defensively smh outside of Kessler we pretty much got nothing on that end besides trying harder.

 

[Eddie Zero]

The defensive energy is completely gone. Guys just standing around letting the Cavs do whatever they wanted.
What is wrong with Vando? He doesn't even look like the same guy that started the season.
Jazz roster isn't full of superstars so they need 100% effort every night. Maybe that's just too big of an ask.

KO out as an option kills Vanders positives, and leaves Marky needing a secondary to JC or better performances from Beasley others than he/they gave us. They just shut him down and nobody else got anything besides JC taking tough shots for the most part. Was expecting a typical Jazz paced game where Mike came to life against Garland but he can't guard him.

 

[HeatCheck]

Well it is pretty terrible compared to what Cleveland has to offer defensively smh outside of Kessler we pretty much got nothing on that end besides trying harder.

I specifically wanted to go back and watch a bit of Kessler last night. I'm a big fan but Jarrett Allen had his way with him last night.
Kessler is still a rookie, has a ton of potential, and will obviously get much better. I'll chalk up last night's game to growing pains for him.

Someone like Vando is an energy player though. If he's not playing with energy than he's not going to have an impact. I saw him flat footed a few times last night.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Exactly 5 worse.

Wait? You’re telling me there are 5 worse defensive teams than the jazz? Damn!!

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I specifically wanted to go back and watch a bit of Kessler last night. I'm a big fan but Jarrett Allen had his way with him last night.
Kessler is still a rookie, has a ton of potential, and will obviously get much better. I'll chalk up last night's game to growing pains for him.

Someone like Vando is an energy player though. If he's not playing with energy than he's not going to have an impact. I saw him flat footed a few times last night.

Well, he is a rookie you idiot!!

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Someone like Vando is an energy player though. If he's not playing with energy than he's not going to have an impact. I saw him flat footed a few times last night.

Losing is starting to wear this team down and I’m happy for it. We never should’ve been winning in the first place. Now we have all this catching up to do. I’m so hungry for a top two pick I’ve decided to become a conspiracy theorist. I’m hoping the nba does pick and choose who gets the first pick and chooses the jazz as a reward for outright not tanking and sticking it to the Knicks. Lol

 

[HeatCheck]

Well, he is a rookie you idiot!!

Ha! I know..
Just invested in following his progression.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Ha! I know..
Just invested in following his progression.

You’re still an idiot

 

[Eddie Zero]

I specifically wanted to go back and watch a bit of Kessler last night. I'm a big fan but Jarrett Allen had his way with him last night.
Kessler is still a rookie, has a ton of potential, and will obviously get much better. I'll chalk up last night's game to growing pains for him.

Someone like Vando is an energy player though. If he's not playing with energy than he's not going to have an impact. I saw him flat footed a few times last night.

Mobley is going to be DPOY convo in the next few seasons imo but what is hidden there is just how impressive he is offensively without the ball.
I think Vander got out witted more than anything. as far as Kessler , I meant we got nobody beside him that should be able to hang their hat on defense alone, even though he obviously isn't going to be as good against his more seasoned contemporaries.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

How much worse can it get?

Probably not much worse, at least in terms of ranking. I think the whole league has gotten worse defensively as teams have adjusted to the season.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Losing is starting to wear this team down and I’m happy for it. We never should’ve been winning in the first place. Now we have all this catching up to do. I’m so hungry for a top two pick I’ve decided to become a conspiracy theorist. I’m hoping the nba does pick and choose who gets the first pick and chooses the jazz as a reward for outright not tanking and sticking it to the Knicks. Lol

I dont think losing is starting to wear on the team at all. The team has a winning record. The team just beat a top ranked Western Conference team twice in a row.

I just think the Jazz arent a very good road team and they arent a team who can overcome injuries to their key players.