I disagree as I stated from the jump. His numbers no matter how efficient this season, are against lesser defenders than as a first option in CLE, and he has not earned the usage against better defenders. I don't care if it is because of older players in front of him or health maybe its a little of both. He should be starting and feasting on the open looks he would have a lot of, having a player of the Finnishers gravity with him. Maybe after those other guards are out of the picture we will see it. My gut tells me unless Hardy is pressured to try to kill the vets trade values by over playing them into innefficiency right before the trade deadline. My assumption is Sexton gets traded easier, as his numbers are as you say more efficeint in a vacuum, regardless of situation, for any other gm not interested in the chuckers in front of him facing better defenders.
not a good enough reason and those players are not better than him by your measurements stat wise at all smh
I feel like we're dancing on the head of a pin here
I feel like we're dancing on the head of a pin here
Again, not easily. Let's says as you put it before Lauri is difference between -2 and +2 - 55 % and 45 % (and that's likely a bit too much). The chances of going 1-5 as the favorite (with Lauri (or JC)) are ~6 %. The chances as the dog (with Lauri out) are ~13 %. Most often you'll go 3-3, no matter what.
Resting Lauri on b2bs for injury prevention etc. down the stretch, smart. Resting him for lottery purposes, very unlikely to make any difference.
Obviously trading all the vets + not getting back anyone decent changes things much more. But then again Jazz/DA made it quite clear in the McMahon piece that he won't make any trades for or even think about trades simply for the purpose of advancing in the lottery.
And really, what's the value between the 8-9 seed and the 10-11? Approx. zilch.
If you've read a single message in this conversation, you'd know the answer. In that example just one player (Lauri) makes a massive difference, swinging a game from 2pt favorite to 2pt dog. However, that difference doesn't magically translate to a 10 game losing streak or whatever.
Too much maths... no good players make no win... sorry its science.I feel like we're dancing on the head of a pin here
Again, not easily. Let's says as you put it before Lauri is difference between -2 and +2 - 55 % and 45 % (and that's likely a bit too much). The chances of going 1-5 as the favorite (with Lauri (or JC)) are ~6 %. The chances as the dog (with Lauri out) are ~13 %. Most often you'll go 3-3, no matter what.
There are often little dings or exhaustion that players fight through... those are the games you rest him. If he has no legitimate reason he plays.
For someone who is great at math you suck at math. The difference between 8-9 and 10-11 is substantial and completely quantifiable with certainty. You have a 20-25% chance at a top 4 pick vs. 10-14% chance... its literally 2x better odds.
Lauri is actually a 10 point swing guy based on on/off numbers.
I picked 4 points because the way Vegas sets lines there are very few guys that are a 10 point swing player. If you tell me instead of Lauri for 32 minutes I am getting Gay and KO for an additional 32 minutes... I will tell you 10 points is not enough. In one individual sample/game anything can happen.
Maths. Hard. Me no like.
Yes. And it's very likely you end up with the 8-11 pick in both cases.
Again. If you believe that, you're surely rolling in money, because Vegas and every bettor disagrees with you. You could make millions and millions in only one season!
It is way huger than you think. I would even go as far as to say yuge, and I don't say that lightly.
Yup... but guess what the upside of getting lucky is? Definitely worth losing a couple meaningless games. Give me the investment with 2x the chance at a massive return thank you.
