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Its Time to Tank

The Jazz Wonderbra said:
Fine enough argument. But if we had this mentality post all star break we could be setup with a top 5 pick which for me is VASTLY more valuable than a top 10 pick. It just doesn't seem to be the mentality of the team.

Feels like a classic, best for the players vs. best for the management situation. The players are screwing it all up. Whatchagonnado?
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Yeah... i think the transaction cycles kinda dictated the timing. We weren't going to sell off players with the ONLY purpose being to make us worse. And teams just don't do a lot of deals before the deadline. The next two games will tell us exactly where our head is at. The OKC OT win was a little unfortunate. I think it may have limited our ceiling (floor?) to 8 or 9 instead of 7.

Players will always play hard and try to win. Coaches will adjust rotations maybe a little but they won't intentionally mess the players up. I think we saw a small change in attitude from the OKC game to the SA game. Hardy pulled the plug on THT as he was slowly dragging us down in the OKC game. He rode with him to the end in the SA game. No one can say definitively that is "tanking" and it might not be... but that's the types of things a coach could do.
 
LogGrad98 said:
You ignored the 2nd part of his comments. A couple of years ago the league revamped the lottery odds. He was saying we saw higher-seeded teams ending up in the top lottery spots over the years, but now with the new revamped odds we will see even more late lottery teams end up in the top 3, so a lottery spot within the top 10 has greater value now, from a draft perspective.
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Also teams can now jump into the top 4 when in years past it was only the top 3. Obviously we need a few years of data but I bet 10 years from now we see a team 7 or later jump into that top 4 almost every year. This last year it was the kings jumping from 7 to 4. 2021 it was the raptors jumping from 7 to 4 as well. 2020 we had the bulls jumping from 7 to 4. 2019 was the first year with the new odds and we had the griz, pelicans and mavs tied for the 7-9 spots. The pelicans and griz ended up jumping to 1 and 2. Pretty crazy that every year the 7 spot has jumped into the top 4.
 
sip said:
Obviously we need a few years of data but I bet 10 years from now we see a team 7 or later jump into that top 4 almost every year.
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Why would we need years of data when the odds are set? (Unless you think Silver is tampering with the lottery.)

It's about 1/4 chance that no team seeded 7-14 will get into the top4 and 3/4 that one of them will.

(Bit of a simplification as the odds for each team aren't independent of each other (as multiple teams can't get the same pick), but the lottery procedure doesn't effect them that much.)
 
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Korisfani said:
It's about 1/4 chance that no team seeded 7-14 will get into the top4 and 3/4 that one of them will.

(Bit of a simplification as the odds for each team aren't independent of each other (as multiple teams can't get the same pick), but the lottery procedure doesn't effect them that much.)
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Couldn't rest with leaving things open like that... Although won't go through all of the permutations.

Let's consider the worst case for the 7-14 seeds: the 6 seed gets the 1st pick, the 5 seed gets 2nd etc.

In that case the chances of the seeds 3-6 getting all the top4 picks are 21,7 % and thus the chance of at least one of the 7-14 seeds nabbing at least one of the top4 picks 78,3 %. And that's the worst case. We can say that there's at least 4/5 chance of one of them landing a top4 pick in any given lottery.
 
If we end up 8th we have a 26.2% chance of jumping into the top-4. I think we end up around 7/8/9.
 
Jazz ending up with a top 8 pick would be great. Hopefully, the Timberwolves still have a rough go of things too. Two lottery picks this year would be fantastic. They’ve been frustrating, but are still only a game and a half out of the lottery at this point. One bad stretch and it could spiral fast.
 
Coach Ellis said:
Jazz ending up with a top 8 pick would be great. Hopefully, the Timberwolves still have a rough go of things too. Two lottery picks this year would be fantastic. They’ve been frustrating, but are still only a game and a half out of the lottery at this point. One bad stretch and it could spiral fast.
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who should we pick at #8?
 
Elizah Huge said:
If we end up 8th we have a 26.2% chance of jumping into the top-4. I think we end up around 7/8/9.
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Portland game in few weeks is huge for draft implications. If we lose that and the OKC game at the end of the season we will lose a lot of tie breakers as well.
 
Do tie breakers have any impact on picks? I thought they used coin toss to determine picks in the event of a tie.
 
hgb said:
Do tie breakers have any impact on picks? I thought they used coin toss to determine picks in the event of a tie.
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I was thinking this the first time he posted a more detailed post about this, but reading it more carefully, I think he's referring to the possibility of being tied in record for the play-in and not the draft itself.

Might be wrong though.
 
idiot said:
I was thinking this the first time he posted a more detailed post about this, but reading it more carefully, I think he's referring to the possibility of being tied in record for the play-in and not the draft itself.

Might be wrong though.
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Ah, right. For playin tiebreakers will definitely matter. The way it looks right now we're on a trajectory way out of the playin, I think.
 
idiot said:
I was thinking this the first time he posted a more detailed post about this, but reading it more carefully, I think he's referring to the possibility of being tied in record for the play-in and not the draft itself.

Might be wrong though.
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Yeah I'm thinking about the last play-in spot, which could come down to tie breakers.

Craziest scenario is this:
Pels, Blazers, Lakers, us and OKC.... thats 5 teams within 1 game of each other right now. If East bubble teams (Wizards, Pacers, Bulls) pushes past us in record and 4 of those 5 west teams would end up with the same exact record (1 pulling up for a better one)... then one of the 4 will get 6th spot while another makes play in and will be 11th at best.

That is 34.8% chance for top 4 vs 8.5% chance for top 4 with the exact same record. I know its not likely (even with Lebron injured, I think Lakers will have a better push), but right now there is no separation.
 
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