2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[seattlejazzfan]

It's one thing for a prospect to have a weakness and say, "he'll improve, get better at it, and one day might even be good at it".....but to totally dismiss the question mark and actually consider the thing he sucks at a strength is too much for me.

Consider Dariq Whitehead's finishing at the rim, it was awful at Duke. He's young, he has a reputation as an explosive athlete around the rim, he was injured, spacing will help, he was the #1 ranked prospect.....yeah there's a lot of reason to think he will improve despite his terrible performance. But even though I like Dariq I'm not going to sit here and act like it isn't a huge question mark. There is reason to believe he will improve, but there is also reason to believe that this area of his game will remain a weakness and you have to acknowledge that even being average at the pro level at this skill will be a big improvement.

amen. very well said.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It's one thing for a prospect to have a weakness and say, "he'll improve, get better at it, and one day might even be good at it".....but to totally dismiss the question mark and actually consider the thing he sucks at a strength is too much for me.

Consider Dariq Whitehead's finishing at the rim, it was awful at Duke. He's young, he has a reputation as an explosive athlete around the rim, he was injured, spacing will help, he was the #1 ranked prospect.....yeah there's a lot of reason to think he will improve despite his terrible performance. But even though I like Dariq I'm not going to sit here and act like it isn't a huge question mark. There is reason to believe he will improve, but there is also reason to believe that this area of his game will remain a weakness and you have to acknowledge that even being average at the pro level at this skill will be a big improvement.

Just because you don't know something doesn't mean others also dont know.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

this is a good point. wallace has decent size. i wouldn't call him undersized and i wouldn't say he has great size. he's about average for his position. but, you can overcome a lack of size (again, not that he lacks size) with strength, athleticism and elite defense. a guy like jrue doesn't have great size, but he's so good defensively and so strong, aint nobody taking advantage of him due to lack of elite size. jrue is the comp for wallace, ftr. you take wallace you hope he becomes jrue.

Jrue is the absolutely high end peak outcome.


The reality is that with Casons lack of size/length he will have some trouble defending at the NBA level. Not to say he will be bad, or that he can't be great, but players with size on the wing will have advantages over him. It also leaves room for his defense to not translate the way you think it would.

I'm always a bit weary of quick hands defenders at the NBA level because a lot of times they have a big dropoff at the NBA level where the ballhandling is so advanced that the advantage of the defensive hands is a bit negated.

If Cason is simply just a good defender and not an elite one, is he worthy of a top 10 pick or are you better off going after a higher offensive ceiling guard like Bufkin/George?

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Jrue is the absolutely high end peak outcome.


The reality is that with Casons lack of size/length he will have some trouble defending at the NBA level. Not to say he will be bad, or that he can't be great, but players with size on the wing will have advantages over him. It also leaves room for his defense to not translate the way you think it would.

I'm always a bit weary of quick hands defenders at the NBA level because a lot of times they have a big dropoff at the NBA level where the ballhandling is so advanced that the advantage of the defensive hands is a bit negated.

If Cason is simply just a good defender and not an elite one, is he worthy of a top 10 pick or are you better off going after a higher offensive ceiling guard like Bufkin/George?

holiday measured at 6'3 without shoes and 6'4" in shoes with a 6'7" wingspan and was 199 lbs. i can all but guarantee Wallace is going to come in VERY similar to those numbers. he's not small. he's not big, but he's not small. and lol - he's so much more than just a "quick hands" defender. he's strong, he has high defensive bball iq, he's athletic, has a great motor on that end, and he moves his feet.

as far as whether he should be taken ahead of guys like bufkin or george, it's impossible to say. we don't know what these guys will become. but george has a ton of warts, bufkin is more steady, but i'm pretty confident you can get him at 16.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

holiday measured at 6'3 without shoes and 6'4" in shoes with a 6'7" wingspan and was 199 lbs. i can all but guarantee Wallace is going to come in VERY similar to those numbers. he's not small. he's not big, but he's not small. and lol - he's so much more than just a "quick hands" defender. he's strong, he has high defensive bball iq, he's athletic, has a great motor on that end, and he moves his feet.

Yes, I get him and jrue are near identical physical comps. I'm just saying Wallace also overcoming those measurements to be an elite defender on Jrue's level is far from a given.

The last game of his college career was him being lit up by a midget as well.

 

[The Midnight]

Wow.


View: https://twitter.com/draftexpress/status/1648342831843426304?s=46&t=2V0XnIiSvvg1zmxf5ErUMA

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Yes, I get him and jrue are near identical physical comps. I'm just saying Wallace also overcoming those measurements to be an elite defender on Jrue's level is far from a given.

The last game of his college career was him being lit up by a midget as well.

nothing is a given in the draft. you draft guys based on potential. he has the potential to be an elite defender.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Yeah, that is a nice highlight video. I think Bilal is currently being mocked in the second round, so maybe we could get him with pick 28.

He's going to rise up draft boards, you'd have to think.

 

[Bodhi]

He's going to rise up draft boards, you'd have to think.

I think when the dust settles he will be in the teens.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Toying with the idea of drafting Black at 9 and Schifino at 16. I’m not really advising we draft Black, but both these two can play make at the guard position. We’d have a starting lineup of 6-6, 6-7, 7-0, 6-11, 7-1. That’s ridiculous. I don’t know if Black needs to be a great shooter, as far as I know he defends well and can stuff a stat sheet. If he can do that, and play defense and hit the mid range shot and floaters with some consistency and the occasional three point shot went open, then he and Schifino would be a great and realistic pairing in the draft.

Thoughts?

Gonna need to reinforce the backboards.

 

[kcgar]

Based on my very limited game watching so far, I really like Wallace. I am a little concerned about his size. He's not undersized, but neither do I think he's the "big point guard" that some were promising earlier in the season.

But more than that, I'm concerned about his back. That's one of the last places you want to be worried about coming out of the draft. I get that MPJ has kind of survived despite perhaps worse back problems, but can anyone talk me out of my concerns?

I was not aware of his back issues. That is definitely concerning and could definitely be a reason not to draft him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wow.


View: https://twitter.com/draftexpress/status/1648342831843426304?s=46&t=2V0XnIiSvvg1zmxf5ErUMA

Good

 

[The Midnight]

Toying with the idea of drafting Black at 9 and Schifino at 16. I’m not really advising we draft Black, but both these two can play make at the guard position. We’d have a starting lineup of 6-6, 6-7, 7-0, 6-11, 7-1. That’s ridiculous. I don’t know if Black needs to be a great shooter, as far as I know he defends well and can stuff a stat sheet. If he can do that, and play defense and hit the mid range shot and floaters with some consistency and the occasional three point shot went open, then he and Schifino would be a great and realistic pairing in the draft.

Thoughts?

David Kahn, is that you?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I was not aware of his back issues. That is definitely concerning and could definitely be a reason not to draft him.

First I’ve heard of it… not sure I’m that worried tbh… hopefully it pushes his stock way down and we get him at 16.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I would do it. I think we would lose games the first year while he gets adjusted. His strength is lacking but that is about it.

The Jazz spent 5 years and $50 million trying to develop Dante Exum, hoping that Exum would turn out something close to this Bilal guy.

 

[whatthe]

Locke's green lights out of the top 20, so far just based on numbers. I may be missing one but here they are.
Wemby
Miller
Cam
Gradey Dick - big time green light.
Hendricks
Hawkins - great shooting, but rest is mixed
Sensabaugh - great shooting, great ISO which is rare, and mostly in the high 68 percentile in athleticism. Oooh, my fan club is excited!

To avoid being red-flagged, you need sufficient athleticism, transition, shooting, spot up, iso. The rest have some serious flaws.

 

[The Midnight]

Locke's green lights out of the top 20, so far just based on numbers. I may be missing one but here they are.
Wemby
Cam
Gradey Dick - big time green light.
Hendricks
Hawkins - great shooting, but rest is mixed
Sensabaugh - great shooting, great ISO which is rare, and mostly in the high 68 percentile in athleticism. Oooh, my fan club is excited!

To avoid being red-flagged, you need sufficient athleticism, transition, shooting, spot up, iso. The rest have some serious flaws.

Locke casually called Sausabauh a “bowling ball” .. I lol at that.. lol..

He’s so ruthless somethimes.

 

[KqWIN]

You are going so overboard. He did show defensive potential and who cares if he isn't a good passer yet. Whitmore averaged even less assists per game and I don't see one word about him not passing. Keep digging that hole though and we can come back in a couple years and see who was right.

Whitmore was a great college basketball player who was outstanding at other things, and his playmaking has been mentioned as weak spot.

If GG chooses to never play defense and never make a pass, he will never be an NBA player. He has to change a ton. If you can't even say he will need to change you are out of your mind.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Locke's green lights out of the top 20, so far just based on numbers. I may be missing one but here they are.
Wemby
Cam
Gradey Dick - big time green light.
Hendricks
Hawkins - great shooting, but rest is mixed
Sensabaugh - great shooting, great ISO which is rare, and mostly in the high 68 percentile in athleticism. Oooh, my fan club is excited!

To avoid being red-flagged, you need sufficient athleticism, transition, shooting, spot up, iso. The rest have some serious flaws.

I actually kinda like what he is doing... it hurts me to say it. Since he really hasn't watched any of them he kinda has some fresh eyes. Based on his analysis I think you have to find a way to pickup one of Dick or Hawkins. Both are better on ball than folks realize. Dick's transition numbers are pretty insane. It makes sense given the eye test but I just wasn't sure exactly how it compared to others.

Tay Henny comes out very nice as well.

Also I think I'd go more towards Hendricks, Dick at #9 than Black and Cason... though the Kentucky guard thing is real and I'd like to find a way to get him.

Use #28 and KO to get John Collins and #15 take Dick@9, take one of Hawkins/Wallace/Bufkin at 15, take Bilal at 16 and cross your fingers.

 

[KqWIN]

amen. very well said.

I feel like people think it's a concession to say their favorite prospect is bad at something, so when they are bad at something they just pull a 180 and act like there's a 100% chance it will turn into a strength and there was no reason for concern at all.

I don't know about you, but the way to sell a prospect isn't by blatantly ignoring obvious issues....you sell a prospect by showing you've actually considered the strengths and weaknesses heavily to come to a conclusion.