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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Elizah Huge said:
Cason is just kind of meh to me. I think he will be a solid player but don’t see a ton of upside. He seems like a high floor low ceiling type of guy to me. Could be totally off base but that’s what I’m feeling.
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I think its fair to feel meh on him. My biggest concern is the back. Was it a MP Jr. type issue or did he just trigger something and never had enough time to recover properly. The reasons I feel good about him:

- Midrange shooting was good... so shows some shooting promise.
- The Kentucky guard thing is quite literally the most reliable draft trend. Its kind of dumb but the list is long and impressive.
- The back injury thing - this draft is full of dudes who may have had injuries that slowed them down a bit. Maybe it affected him and is a non-issue going forward.

I like his game overall but those are the things that make me a bit more hopeful for him.

If the medicals aren't clean on the back I can see him sliding to 16. If they are clean I'm drafting him at #9 no hesitation.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I'm so on/off with Cason. I think he might just be a bit too small (dont attack me) for his skill-set given his lack of on-ball burst, lack of natural PG feel, lack of handle. Kind of the same thing as Davion Mitchell, but not to that degree.

Then there is the fact that he shot 40/24 from the field on 10.6/4.2 attempts per game while averaging 11.2 ppg in SEC play.
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On that last point, you have to consider his health. It was viably effecting him. If that's a long term concern....not good obviously. But I have no clue if his health issues are something to be concerned about long term.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Everyone is rising... the tape measure, the scale, and eye test are more important than basketball. I'm sure I'm the only one that would look at the measurements and question the stock numbers... or its a legit question you yourself have asked.

With 28 I'm open to just about any prospect. Anyone that wants to reach for this guy in the top 20 is likely passing some better bets.
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He played basketball very well this season.... There's more to basketball than getting credited for blocks/steals. He's also 20 years old and had a large jump from his sophomore to junior years. Of course I think his stocks being low is a bit puzzling, but if he plays good D he plays good D, doesnt have to be creating steals/blocks for that to be the case.

Stocks are used as an indicator to see if something is there, but I dont think it's an indicator for good defense. If I see a prospect I havent heard of and he has high stocks, I'm going to be intrigued and want to take a closer look. If I see a player play and I recognize he's play great on-ball/off-ball D and his stocks are low, I'm not switching to thinking he's a bad defender.

Take it to an in-class example, Podziemski has great stocks. Do you really think he's a better defender than JHS?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
He played basketball very well this season.... There's more to basketball than getting credited for blocks/steals. He's also 20 years old and had a large jump from his sophomore to junior years. Of course I think his stocks being low is a bit puzzling, but if he plays good D he plays good D, doesnt have to be creating steals/blocks for that to be the case.

Stocks are used as an indicator to see if something is there, but I dont think it's an indicator for good defense. If I see a prospect I havent heard of and he has high stocks, I'm going to be intrigued and want to take a closer look. If I see a player play and I recognize he's play great on-ball/off-ball D and his stocks are low, I'm not switching to thinking he's a bad defender.

Take it to an in-class example, Podziemski has great stocks. Do you really think he's a better defender than JHS?
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I wasn't judging him... I have not watched him at all. I just think its funny when guys rise because of measurements and the athletic testing... its a little suspect when they go from mid second round to top 20 based on the tape measure... thats all.

In the chaos that is college basketball... my guess is most of the good defenders don't have poor stock numbers... just a guess.

Podz is likely a worse defender but might survive on smarts (Ingles/Niang style)... both guys I think the value is what do they bring on offense... not that we should ignore defensive impact.
 
With Cason you hope between the injury and Kentucky guard thing he has a glow up on offense similar to Maxey. Maxey was a pretty meh offensive guy... you could see he was fast as hell... but he's far exceeded expectations thus far. Say Cason is an efficient 15/7 guy on offense and world class defender... that's fantastic to have. I think he has a pretty clear path to get there.
 
There has been one all star player in the last 10 years with stocks below 1.5 (JHS is at 1.3) before entering the NBA. Any guessers?

Lauri ****ing Markannen

JHS has a path to being solid pro. I just don't think he has the profile that a typical star player does. It should go without saying, but NBA stars are able to get efficient shots despite opposing defense's best effort. Being able to take what the defense gives you is nice, doesn't exactly scream star player to me. I think a bigger version of Monte Morris is an appropriate comparison. JHS's size will give him more defensive versatility, but he also has a long way to go to be the level of shooter/passer Monte Morris is. Monte is an elite mid range jump shooter and has one of the (maybe the best?) AST/TOV ratio in the game. It would be a high end outcome for JHS to get to Monte's level on offense. Monte's 2FG% is terrific at 54% whereas JHS was at 45% in college.

I've got not problem swinging for the fences at #9. I don't think JHS is a good bet to become a high upside player.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4v0Xr4IBFA


2 steals and 1 block. Must have been a great defensive game.
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Watched this entire game. What I did like is the amount of 3's, and I've said this many times but I do think that's an area he can/will make meaningful strides in. However, the impression I got is that this is a very hot shooting game, but not something that feels repeatable on a consistent basis. The reason being that there simply does not exist star players who are stars with this shot profile. When you barely touch the paint it's a tough way to make a living. It eliminates the most efficient way to score and also does not put the same pressure on the defense to create opportunities for others. If he can be a star player the way he was a star in this game it would require to him to be one of the best shooters in the entire NBA. If he can do that, more power to him. It's just a narrow path to being a star player.

At the next level I believe he can take what the defense gives him and do some damage, but star players do not simply take what the defense gives you.
 
KqWIN said:
I get the feeling, and I kinda see Cason as the higher floor lower ceiling version of Black myself. Having said that, it's often the guys who are seen as role players who end up being the star players. I think we could be falling into a trap with Cason where it's so easy to see him being a solid player it limits our imagination for him to be a star. When it's not as easy to see a prospect as role player (i.e. GG, JHS, NSJ etc) the imagination and hopium can run wild. Ultimately I think Cason lands somewhere between Melton-DWhite scale, which is still an awesome player, but I try not to undersell his chance to be even better.

This is true for Black as well. It's so easy to see him be that connector type, but I'd caution on pigeonholing him into that. It's seems as though Shai is the most common guys are comparing themselves too this year. Every tall PG/combo guard says they're like Shai just like every smallish combo guard said they were like Mitchell after he broke out. TBH, I think Black has as good of a case to be compared to Shai as anyone. The best thing Shai does is get to the line, and Black really stands out from the rest of the pack here. It's interesting to read the predraft stuff on Shai as well, because many thought he was more of a role player than star.
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If you look at the plethora of KY star guards they all have something in common- stand out athletes, with above avg. shooting and scoring abilities and they have defensive potential. I would NOT expect him to be the next slept on Murray or the underrated Maxey or the forgotten Quickley.lol, He is more like most of the guards from Duke that are great back ups that know the game but are not worth a lottery selection pricetag
 
Cason's swing skill is going to be his pick and roll ball handling. I think his numbers are pretty good there, but he really didn't get enough reps, and I think he has a lot of room for growth.

If he becomes elite in the pnr, then he has a path to be an all star. If he's only average in the pnr he's probably just an average player offensively.

Personally, I think/hope he can become great. Especially if he is paired with a guys like Lauri and Kessler, I think he'll be really good.

At minimum he's a guy that has to be guarded on offense and plays great defense. Those guys get rotation minutes on any team.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Cason's swing skill is going to be his pick and roll ball handling. I think his numbers are pretty good there, but he really didn't get enough reps, and I think he has a lot of room for growth.

If he becomes elite in the pnr, then he has a path to be an all star. If he's only average in the pnr he's probably just an average player offensively.

Personally, I think/hope he can become great. Especially if he is paired with a guys like Lauri and Kessler, I think he'll be really good.

At minimum he's a guy that has to be guarded on offense and plays great defense. Those guys get rotation minutes on any team.
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That’s just not what I’d swing for at 9. I want more upside.
 
Elizah Huge said:
See, to me he’s not one of the best 9 prospects so I wouldn’t draft him there with no hesitation.
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I get it. I like Black too but if the medicals are clean I'd likely take Wallace. First preference is one of the wings in the top 8 or so... then its eye of the beholder between Wallace and Black... the other considerations are Bufkin, Miller, Dick, George.
 
Black is superior to Wallace in almost everything. It sounds like all of the draft and NBA guys agree with me as well. DX has Black at 8 and Wallace at 17 which Givony does based off of intel. I’ve been trying to tell everyone.
 
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