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Potential Trade Targets

KqWIN said:
I think Cam would be 2+ plus picks in addition to John Collins. Cam Johnson always been somewhat of a numbers darling, might be worth it to pay that. Hot take, but he's a better value proposition than Bridges.



Collins deal is longer and he hasn't exactly been helping us win. Getting the money off the books one year early is important. BS basically doesn't exist anymore. There are no headlines or distractions. If announcing he will be reevaluated every two weeks is a problem, you got a lot of problems.
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It’s the will he won’t he distraction that I think just kinda hangs out there. Collins isn’t nearly as negative as you are making him here.

Adding two picks to Collins for Johnson would be wild. His on/off isn’t amazing and his normal box score stuff is nice but similar enough to Collins. Remember when the in/off stuff made Rudy Gay look like he was helping… it’s really a Walker Kessler thing. Johnson would be better with Walker of course but I’m not willing to throw two picks at it for that reason.

Just be patient… give Collins more sample of productive play and see what his value is in the offseason… assuming he’s this negative. No need to sell this low… he’s not toxic.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It’s the will he won’t he distraction that I think just kinda hangs out there. Collins isn’t nearly as negative as you are making him here.

Adding two picks to Collins for Johnson would be wild. His on/off isn’t amazing and his normal box score stuff is nice but similar enough to Collins. Remember when the in/off stuff made Rudy Gay look like he was helping… it’s really a Walker Kessler thing. Johnson would be better with Walker of course but I’m not willing to throw two picks at it for that reason.

Just be patient… give Collins more sample of productive play and see what his value is in the offseason… assuming he’s this negative. No need to sell this low… he’s not toxic.
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If you're moving Collins, I think that's minus one FRP easily. I don't think he's the worst player in the world, but that contract is terrible. Cam Johnson alone could yield 2 FRP of value. He's a really good player on a long term deal. Depending on the quality of those picks, 2+ sounds right to me. I don't see how 1 FRP is close.
 
Don't give up picks for players that don't clearly move the needle. If Collins is really killing us this much reduce his minutes. If you want to give up multiple picks for Cam Johnson... just go ahead and play Simone more. Live with the budget version of guys that don't move the needle and be patient.
 
KqWIN said:
If you're moving Collins, I think that's minus one FRP easily. I don't think he's the worst player in the world, but that contract is terrible. Cam Johnson alone could yield 2 FRP of value. He's a really good player on a long term deal. Depending on the quality of those picks, 2+ sounds right to me. I don't see how 1 FRP is close.
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Not sure someone is giving two good firsts plus expiring salary for Johnson. If it costs a first to offload Collins the solution is simple... just hold. No need to force fetch to happen here. Look for value not just to swap stuff out at fair prices. Cam vs. Collins doesn't change what the next 2-3 years look like substantially. Why pay 2+ picks for that privilege? Do we go from a lower tiered play in team to an upper tier play in team? Then no thanks. Simone/Tay Henny can try to assume the role Johnson would have and we can bench Collins if we really need to (we don't need to though).
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Don't give up picks for players that don't clearly move the needle. If Collins is really killing us this much reduce his minutes. If you want to give up multiple picks for Cam Johnson... just go ahead and play Simone more. Live with the budget version of guys that don't move the needle and be patient.
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Agree. Collins is here as a mid-level player that helps us to meet the salary minimum and has worth as salary to make a larger deal happen without gutting the team. He‘s our more expensive Patrick Beverly.
 
Flc said:
Agree. Collins is here as a mid-level player that helps us to meet the salary minimum and has worth as salary to make a larger deal happen without gutting the team. He‘s our more expensive Patrick Beverly.
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I disagree with the salary part of the equation and have outlined why its not the answer. I think they liked John the player and thought his value would increase. It may be decreasing but not significantly.

The main consideration now with John is salary and playing time. They have found a way to split John and Walker's time that I think makes sense. If Walker continues his strong play then you may need to change the minutes allocation but not a big issue. The salary isn't great an hurts some of our flexibility. He makes probably twice as much as he should but it likely doesn't prevent something big that we'd want to do.
 
The more I dig into on/off stats the worse Collins looks. Opponents are scoring +10.3 more points per 100/possessions with Collins on the floor which is worst in the entire league.

Compared to Kessler where opponents are scoring -10.0 less points per/100 possessions which is 3rd best in the entire league.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Not sure someone is giving two good firsts plus expiring salary for Johnson. If it costs a first to offload Collins the solution is simple... just hold. No need to force fetch to happen here. Look for value not just to swap stuff out at fair prices. Cam vs. Collins doesn't change what the next 2-3 years look like substantially. Why pay 2+ picks for that privilege? Do we go from a lower tiered play in team to an upper tier play in team? Then no thanks. Simone/Tay Henny can try to assume the role Johnson would have and we can bench Collins if we really need to (we don't need to though).
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I think Cam is easily a 2FRP kind of guy. He's certainly not a 1 FRP guy, no way. Royce O'Neale is a 1 FRP guy. I do think Cam vs Collins changes the Jazz franchise in a big way. Cam is a much better player and a much better fit. Are we going to find a better use of those picks than Cam Johnson? That is the real question, because there's no guarantee those 2 picks change the franchise substantially either. You're going to need players of Cam Johnson's quality at some point, they won't fall into your lap. It's not like we're burning down the house to get Cam Johnson. We'd be getting rid of a clearly problematic contract on our end while also getting a very good player who is tied down for a long time. I would feel very good about Cam maintaining his value as he enters the prime of his career.

It's ok if you want to say no, but what are you actually going to say yes to? Cam Johnson would be an extremely valuable get for this team. I doubt BKN would even accept this kind of deal. Even with their stable of wings, these are the most highly valued archetypes.
 
KqWIN said:
I think Cam is easily a 2FRP kind of guy. He's certainly not a 1 FRP guy, no way. Royce O'Neale is a 1 FRP guy. I do think Cam vs Collins changes the Jazz franchise in a big way. Cam is a much better player and a much better fit. Are we going to find a better use of those picks than Cam Johnson? That is the real question, because there's no guarantee those 2 picks change the franchise substantially either. You're going to need players of Cam Johnson's quality at some point, they won't fall into your lap. It's not like we're burning down the house to get Cam Johnson. We'd be getting rid of a clearly problematic contract on our end while also getting a very good player who is tied down for a long time. I would feel very good about Cam maintaining his value as he enters the prime of his career.

It's ok if you want to say no, but what are you actually going to say yes to? Cam Johnson would be an extremely valuable get for this team. I doubt BKN would even accept this kind of deal. Even with their stable of wings, these are the most highly valued archetypes.
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Well pick quality matters. Royce was traded for a first that was the worst of 2-3 picks scenario with some great teams in there. It was virtually guaranteed to be a late first. An unprotected pick or lightly protected pick like the Lakers pick is easily worth like 2-3 of those protected picks imo. If we are talking unprotected picks there is no way I'm doing that for Cam. I would settle for budget version Cam with Tech. Hell Tech on his next deal might be worth more than Cam. If we are talking the worst of 3 picks we own type of language I'll talk but Nets are doing that.

It might be okay value but the timing is off. In a year or two is when you'd look at something like that. Value is not a set price its a window... I don't see either team getting to a window that is worth it for both with where they are. Why would we go to the top of the value window to force fetch to happen now? Whats the purpose. Also Cam is currently in the prime of his career... he's older than John.

Also just because I have picks doesn't mean I need to move them... I will move them in deals that move the needle or hold until they convey or until making a medium move makes sense. We are a year or two away from that type of thing making sense and there is still the possibility we move the other direction.

I think Cam is worth one unprotected pick and maybe a heavily protected pick and expiring salary to the right team... we aren't that team yet.
 
Elizah Huge said:
The more I dig into on/off stats the worse Collins looks. Opponents are scoring +10.3 more points per 100/possessions with Collins on the floor which is worst in the entire league.

Compared to Kessler where opponents are scoring -10.0 less points per/100 possessions which is 3rd best in the entire league.
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Its a Walker Kessler thing. I think he can play more minutes and might help us win more but sometimes things don't work out over a bigger sample like that. Remember when Rudy Gay looked awesome based on advanced stats... he sucked... it was because he played with Walker.

I think Hardy is maximizing both guys right now and could swing into playing Kessler more to maximize the overall team performance. I think the biggest takeaway is not "Collins sucks" i think the biggest takeaway is "Walker is good".

Collins also has played the most minutes and suffered through some embarrassing lineups. Yall know I'm not a big fan but he's trending the right way. Roll with this through the trade deadline and see if you can move him without paying for it... if not start to ramp up Kessler's minutes and limit John's.
 
On/off stuff can be wonky. It tells part of the story. THT has a higher on/off than Sexton/JC by a significant margin... only one person wants to see him over those guys. Its half a season and we had some big blowouts too... I don't think he's super positive but he's not THIS negative.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
On/off stuff can be wonky. It tells part of the story. THT has a higher on/off than Sexton/JC by a significant margin... only one person wants to see him over those guys. Its half a season and we had some big blowouts too... I don't think he's super positive but he's not THIS negative.
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That’s a good point.
 
You need 48 minutes at center. Right now we should likely move away from a 50/50 split but I'm not sure we should go all the way to a 32/16 split between Kessler and Collins. Slide towards 30 minutes for Walker and see what happens maybe. Walker is one of the best rim protectors in the league. John may be one of the worst as a center... he has other pluses. Ultimately you may bring him off the bench. Just be patient for now.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Well pick quality matters. Royce was traded for a first that was the worst of 2-3 picks scenario with some great teams in there. It was virtually guaranteed to be a late first. An unprotected pick or lightly protected pick like the Lakers pick is easily worth like 2-3 of those protected picks imo. If we are talking unprotected picks there is no way I'm doing that for Cam. I would settle for budget version Cam with Tech. Hell Tech on his next deal might be worth more than Cam. If we are talking the worst of 3 picks we own type of language I'll talk but Nets are doing that.

It might be okay value but the timing is off. In a year or two is when you'd look at something like that. Value is not a set price its a window... I don't see either team getting to a window that is worth it for both with where they are. Why would we go to the top of the value window to force fetch to happen now? Whats the purpose. Also Cam is currently in the prime of his career... he's older than John.

Also just because I have picks doesn't mean I need to move them... I will move them in deals that move the needle or hold until they convey or until making a medium move makes sense. We are a year or two away from that type of thing making sense and there is still the possibility we move the other direction.

I think Cam is worth one unprotected pick and maybe a heavily protected pick and expiring salary to the right team... we aren't that team yet.
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I don't understand the timing thing. Unless you are trying to lose on purpose, it is also good timing to get a great player who is locked into a cost controlled deal while also getting rid of a toxic contract. I don't think you can flip a switch and say, "time to win now" and make all the moves you want to make at once. I think if you could actually make this trade now (spoiler you can't, BKN would not accept), you leap at that opportunity because there's no guarantee you get it later. The timing is good, because you actually make the deal. You wait, you might not find anything better or that player might be traded somewhere else. Part of being in "opportunistic" mode is actually taking the opportunities.

I'm going to be honest, I kinda hate this "move the needle" logic because what that actually means is completely subjective. We shouldn't pass up good deals, plain and simple, any time you can get a player like Cam Johnson for reasonable value that's a good thing. You don't often get that opportunity. I don't care if it moves hypothetical needle that has no real definition. It can mean anything. I think Cam Johnson would be a big asset to the franchise an a step in the right direction. He's super valuable right now and will be for the duration of his contract and possibly beyond. His archetype is so valuable, which is why BKN would not do this trade anyways.

PS: Funny how Tech went from charity case who was only getting preseason minutes out of the goodness of Hardy's heart to potentially being worth more Cam. Things certainly change quickly!
 
BTW, I think it's totally fine to just wait out John's contract for the meantime. I wouldn't pay the cost to dump him, which would almost certainly be at least a 1RP. But Cam Johnson is freaking good. That's not making a trade for the sake of making a trade, that's getting a really good cost controlled player.
 
KqWIN said:
I don't understand the timing thing. Unless you are trying to lose on purpose, it is also good timing to get a great player who is locked into a cost controlled deal while also getting rid of a toxic contract. I don't think you can flip a switch and say, "time to win now" and make all the moves you want to make at once. I think if you could actually make this trade now (spoiler you can't, BKN would not accept), you leap at that opportunity because there's no guarantee you get it later. The timing is good, because you actually make the deal. You wait, you might not find anything better or that player might be traded somewhere else. Part of being in "opportunistic" mode is actually taking the opportunities.
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I understand you can't just waive a wand and win now. Move the needle means to me... does this player take us from a borderline play in team to a certain play in spot? I don't think he does. I think our time to win is 2-3 years from now... will Cam be awesome then... probably but he'll be 30 and start the backside of his career as we are really prioritizing winning. Its not hard to understand the timing thing imo. Winning is not the number one priority right now. Does it mean you do no deals until you are a contender or only ones that guarantee contender status? Nope... but if you are putting in your premium assets like multiple unprotected picks... then the deal better do more than re-arrange the deck chairs on the the play-in titanic.
KqWIN said:
I'm going to be honest, I kinda hate this "move the needle" logic because what that actually means is completely subjective. We shouldn't pass up good deals, plain and simple, any time you can get a player like Cam Johnson for reasonable value that's a good thing. You don't often get that opportunity. I don't care if it moves hypothetical needle that has no real definition. It can mean anything. I think Cam Johnson would be a big asset to the franchise an a step in the right direction. He's super valuable right now and will be for the duration of his contract and possibly beyond. His archetype is so valuable, which is why BKN would not do this trade anyways.
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Explained above but his maximum value is the next 2-4 years when we aren't going all in for winning for half that period. I don't think he is an appreciating asset and the picks will increase as they get closer and may have a huge increase in value if the teams suck. We could play it safe or we can accept more risk and have a much higher ceiling for the asset. If you are trying to win the title you will need more upside. Doesn't mean you get wild and invest your 401k in lotto tickets but don't put your money in high interest savings accounts and expect to become a billionaire.

KqWIN said:
PS: Funny how Tech went from charity case who was only getting preseason minutes out of the goodness of Hardy's heart to potentially being worth more Cam. Things certainly change quickly!
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Its why you don't sell off players and assets at their lowest point because of impatience. Ride it out and give it time.
 
KqWIN said:
BTW, I think it's totally fine to just wait out John's contract for the meantime. I wouldn't pay the cost to dump him, which would almost certainly be at least a 1RP. But Cam Johnson is freaking good. That's not making a trade for the sake of making a trade, that's getting a really good cost controlled player.
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By your trade math here we should move 3 picks and Collins for Cam right?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think our time to win is 2-3 years from now... will Cam be awesome then... probably but he'll be 30 and start the backside of his career as we are really prioritizing winning. Its not hard to understand the timing thing imo.
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Yes it is. I mean... the existence of that "winning window" is certainly a popular view among the armchair GM gang, but the problem is that its not based on anything. It's just an arbitrary point in time people have invented. We don't know what the "plan" is.

Hell, 2 years from now is literally just around the corner. So we should suddenly put the pedal to the metal then, but without the quality vets we could acquire now?

I'm just not seeing Keyonte and Hendricks carrying this team to contender status in two years.
 
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