Potential Trade Targets

[Handlogten's Heros]

Agree. We should keep him, for now anyway. His value will probably become higher, and we need his defense. He also brings toughness, which we don't have enough.

I like him and agree. The proposed trade is good value and I think the Bucks would do it in a second. I just think if we want some good seconds we have other routes I'd go first. Dunn is helping our young players and guards quite a bit.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

He plays 22 minutes a night when he starts. His on-off splits are better than every other rotation player on the team... even Lauri. He can easily play at this level for another couple years. The seconds are solid ones but I prefer to keep Dunn. He helps smooth the edges out while our combo guards figure things out.

The biggest thing for me with Dunn is he seems to have embraced his role and seems to be a good locker room guy/mentor for the young guys. I remember in training camp Locke had this theory that Dunn was going to go hard at the young guys to "fight" for his minutes/spot on the team. I remember him asking Dunn about it, and Dunn basically said, "Nah." Then you heard about him working with guys to help them with their defense and just being a good mentor in general.

The biggest reason to move him would be if he is definitely not coming back next year due to wanting too much money or just not liking being part of the team. I don't get the sense either of those things are true and so I'm guessing we have a pretty good chance to retain him.

 

[homeytennis]

I can't remember where I read this but they said "Dunn is vocal leader on a team full of introverts."

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The thing is, teams aren't respecting him, they are playing off of him. As his shot chart shows, he has taken zero 3s closely guarded (and 2.4% with a defender within 2-4 feet).

Here is the breakdown:
Ochai averages 3 three point attempts per game.

On average 1.7 of those are wide open (no defender within 6 feet). 1.1 are with a defender within 4-6 feet (open) and the remaining 0.2 within 2-4 feet. And the Jazz aren't running screens to get him open, they are having him sit on the wing/corner and his defender is sagging off of him. So basically he is taking the very large majority of his shots open and has shot 16% from 3 this month. Not a good sign.

If he doesn't improve his shooting his minutes will start dropping, and he won't get paid.

Basically only elite movement shooters or elite shot creators take closely guarded 3's. It's not a great sign of respect level for 90% of shooters. Even Lauri Markkanen, who is an elite shooter, possibly the best shooter over 6'8 in the NBA, doesnt take "tight" contest according to the tracking system.

Basically a 2-4 foot contest by the tracking system means the defender didnt leave you at all and it's not a closeout situation.

"Open" shots wont always look open in the actual game. If it's a good closeout an "open" shot from the tracker can look like a tight contest. If your shooting presence is still causing defenders to rotate and recover, you are providing a benefit. Like I said, no one is just seeing Ochai get the ball and not reacting.

And yeah, no one is saying Ochai is a movement shooter bud. Literally no one. Even if Ochai is only ever a one dimensional corner shooter, as long as he is good at that, it's valuable. The guy is just in a slump, it happens.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The biggest thing for me with Dunn is he seems to have embraced his role and seems to be a good locker room guy/mentor for the young guys. I remember in training camp Locke had this theory that Dunn was going to go hard at the young guys to "fight" for his minutes/spot on the team. I remember him asking Dunn about it, and Dunn basically said, "Nah." Then you heard about him working with guys to help them with their defense and just being a good mentor in general.

The biggest reason to move him would be if he is definitely not coming back next year due to wanting too much money or just not liking being part of the team. I don't get the sense either of those things are true and so I'm guessing we have a pretty good chance to retain him.

There was an article about Key talking with him as well... Given his journey I have a hard time thinking he wouldn't give us every opportunity to keep him here if the money lines up. I also think BAE is about as wild as any outside team would get. That feels like a good value for us for the next couple years and he fits well with Sexton, Key, JC.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

Basically only elite movement shooters or elite shot creators take closely guarded 3's. It's not a great sign of respect level for 90% of shooters. Even Lauri Markkanen, who is an elite shooter, possibly the best shooter over 6'8 in the NBA, doesnt take "tight" contest according to the tracking system.

Basically a 2-4 foot contest by the tracking system means the defender didnt leave you at all and it's not a closeout situation.

"Open" shots wont always look open in the actual game. If it's a good closeout an "open" shot from the tracker can look like a tight contest. If your shooting presence is still causing defenders to rotate and recover, you are providing a benefit. Like I said, no one is just seeing Ochai get the ball and not reacting.

And yeah, no one is saying Ochai is a movement shooter bud. Literally no one. Even if Ochai is only ever a one dimensional corner shooter, as long as he is good at that, it's valuable. The guy is just in a slump, it happens.

You said teams were guarding him and respecting his 3. The eye test and stats show he is only taking open 3s, so teams are leaving him open. He isn't taking 2-4 ft closely guarded 3s (1 every 5 games). The majority have defenders 6+ feet away and the rest at 4-6 feet away. He's sort of like Collins, teams take the risk he'll miss, which is why he has so many open attempts.

And I wasn't saying he was a movement shooter. My point was movement shooters actually get more open shots due to the play actions/screens designed to get them open, which explains how Curry for example gets a lot of open shots (multiple screen actions on one play) despite teams trying to closely guard him.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

There was an article about Key talking with him as well... Given his journey I have a hard time thinking he wouldn't give us every opportunity to keep him here if the money lines up. I also think BAE is about as wild as any outside team would get. That feels like a good value for us for the next couple years and he fits well with Sexton, Key, JC.

Dunn is the type of player every team needs. Can hit an open 3 fairly consistently, can get buckets and defends. His willingness to pass has improved, but his vision is not the best for a PG. And he is willing to take a bench role if Key improves or we sign or trade for a great pg. Key is a piece you keep.

I would love to have seem him in place of Eisley on the 90s teams. Eisley was overrated and could not pass well as he often had his back to the basket on the perimeter. He was the achillies heel on those teams.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You said teams were guarding him and respecting his 3. The eye test and stats show he is only taking open 3s, so teams are leaving him open. He isn't taking 2-4 ft closely guarded 3s (1 every 5 games). The majority have defenders 6+ feet away and the rest at 4-6 feet away. He's like of like Collins, teams take the risk he'll miss, which is why he has so many open attempts.

And I wasn't saying he was a movement shooter. My point was movement shooters actually get more open shots due to the play actions/screens designed to get them open, which explains how Curry for example gets a lot of open shots (multiple screen actions on one play) despite teams trying to closely guard him.

If a team closes out to you, that's guarding you. IDK if you watch basketball, but only the most elite shooters get a defender stuck to them. It's impossible to play defense in the NBA without your defenders sinking in to help guard the paint.

And again, you're using tracking as some holy grail of measurements. I'm telling you, it's not. It's very inaccurate.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

He's doubled his block/steal rate this year.

The thing is, for a player like Ochai, blocks and steals are a nice but not that essential. I'd much rather see him be a better 1-on-1 defender at the perimeter.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The thing is, for a player like Ochai, blocks and steals are a nice but not that essential. I'd much rather see him be a better 1-on-1 defender at the perimeter.

If he can merge his spot up shooting last year with his defense from this year I'm fine with him getting the minutes he does.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

If a team closes out to you, that's guarding you. IDK if you watch basketball, but only the most elite shooters get a defender stuck to them. It's impossible to play defense in the NBA without your defenders sinking in to help guard the paint.

And again, you're using tracking as some holy grail of measurements. I'm telling you, it's not. It's very inaccurate.

If a team closes out on you by having a player close enough to actually contest (2-4 ft away when you shoot) I would agree. However 90% of Ochai's shots are considered open/wide open per the NBA's terminology.

I am using the eye test and the stats simply back it up. Ochai and Collins get left open, and THT did too. Teams cheat off of him, and for good reason.

Good shooters get defended on 3s not just elites. Obviously there are breakdowns and elitr passing that can get anyone open, but that is not the case here. You said "It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him." I'm not sure what you are watching, but your take on this is dead wrong. You keep moving the stick, now only elite shooters get a player stuck to them. Modern NBA defense is designed to guard the 3 and paint, and to rotate and leave open the low % shooters. Ochai is currently one of those players on the Jazz (Kessler and THT too).

I hope he figures it out and can take advantage on open shots.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

If he can merge his spot up shooting last year with his defense from this year I'm fine with him getting the minutes he does.

Agreed, but can he? He shot 42% in November as I recall, 25% over his last 20 and 16% from 3 in January. He's trending in the wrong direction.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If a team closes out on you by having a player close enough to actually contest (2-4 ft away when you shoot) I would agree. However 90% of Ochai's shots are considered open/wide open per the NBA's terminology.

I am using the eye test and the stats simply back it up. Ochai and Collins get left open, and THT did too. Teams cheat off of him, and for good reason.

Good shooters get defended on 3s not just elites. Obviously there are breakdowns and elitr passing that can get anyone open, but that is not the case here. You said "It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him." I'm not sure what you are watching, but your take on this is dead wrong. You keep moving the stick, now only elite shooters get a player stuck to them. Modern NBA defense is designed to guard the 3 and paint, and to rotate and leave open the low % shooters. Ochai is currently one of those players on the Jazz (Kessler and THT too).

I hope he figures it out and can take advantage on open shots.

lmao yeah youre full of **** if you're comparing the way THT gets left open to Ochai. Throw your eye test in the trash.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If a team closes out on you by having a player close enough to actually contest (2-4 ft away when you shoot) I would agree. However 90% of Ochai's shots are considered open/wide open per the NBA's terminology.

I am using the eye test and the stats simply back it up. Ochai and Collins get left open, and THT did too. Teams cheat off of him, and for good reason.

Good shooters get defended on 3s not just elites. Obviously there are breakdowns and elitr passing that can get anyone open, but that is not the case here. You said "It's not like teams are daring him to take wide open shots, people are still respecting him." I'm not sure what you are watching, but your take on this is dead wrong. You keep moving the stick, now only elite shooters get a player stuck to them. Modern NBA defense is designed to guard the 3 and paint, and to rotate and leave open the low % shooters. Ochai is currently one of those players on the Jazz (Kessler and THT too).

I hope he figures it out and can take advantage on open shots.

You can't design a defense that always dictates who is left open. If a PNR is ran to the right side the guy in the right corner has to help down if the big is any kind of threat.

Again, you are watching a completely different game or just have selective memory if you think THT/Walker are guarded anything like Ochai is on the perimeter.

 

[hgb]

Herb Jones should 33% his first two seasons and regressed to 31% Nov and Dec this season before suddenly having burst up to 57% in Jan. I think it's pretty likely Ochai can regain his confidence and shooting percentage.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Agreed, but can he? He shot 42% in November as I recall, 25% over his last 20 and 16% from 3 in January. He's trending in the wrong direction.

I think he can. Sometimes these slumps spiral as confidence is lost... maybe just stick to corner threes for a minute doe.

 

[Isaiah 1:13]

Most of it is glorified blog posts.

Good to know - ignore list then.

 

[kabenac]

The Eastern Conference has so many **** teams that stifle their players. I look at The Orlando Magic and shake my head.

 

[framer]

I like Ochai. Teams need players like Ochai. But that guy was a trade asset from the minute the ink dried on Danny's signature from the Mitchell deal. He will be moved in the next big deal.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Listening to Tampering Pod... feel like we are Lakers main way to offload Russell by removing the protections on the pick they owe us. They don't have the excess assets to just send so sending that might be their only hope.