All the bad teams have bad or young players though. We Lauri/Walker/Sexton are better than the top end of all/most of the bottom 7/8 teams.I think we’ll be pretty bad with or without Lauri. We don’t have the same veteran depth as we did before. Lauri has never played more than 68 games.
The difference in playing someone like Cody/Brice is massive compared to a Simone/KO.
All the bad teams have bad or young players though. We Lauri/Walker/Sexton are better than the top end of all/most of the bottom 7/8 teams.
I get it. I have just seen too many people watching summer league and saying we will be awful. Every bad team will have some rotation guys that are rough. I'd say we are like a 25-28 win team as we sit but are one "surprise" away from being more than that. A few games can quickly push you from 5th or whatevs to 8th. So I'd rather leave no doubt and end up in contention for 3rd or 4th worst.I don't think we're in the poll tank positions for the reasons you mentioned, but our depth is really shallow and depth crucial to winning games over an 82 game season. I guess what I'm saying is this team as it stands is significantly worse than it was in years past. If we traded Sexton/Kessler ect and kept Lauri I think we'd be pretty close to being one of the worst in the league. This roster kind of reminds me of the tanking TWolves teams after Jimmy. Might need to trade Sexton to get there though.
I get it. I have just seen too many people watching summer league and saying we will be awful. Every bad team will have some rotation guys that are rough. I'd say we are like a 25-28 win team as we sit but are one "surprise" away from being more than that. A few games can quickly push you from 5th or whatevs to 8th. So I'd rather leave no doubt and end up in contention for 3rd or 4th worst.
With relatively normal health I think there is no way we are worse than Nets, Wiz, Pistons (even with their vet additions)... Bulls/Hornets/Blazers are teams I could see surprising or being trash. Raps I think will be play in quality but they are an injury away from turning to tank. And then there are the teams that are an injury away from being awful. I'd strongly consider making one "lose-now" trade in an effort to make sure we suck. We like to play with fire though so...
I did a SWAG projection and would guess 27.5 wins as the over under. So seems right. I think that leaves you in a spot where if a young player is good or a vets play is improved you end up in the 30 win range. Pistons could win twice as many games as they did last year… and still be a 28 win team.I think the Nets and Wiz are clearly worse than us. Pistons I think will be much better with like 9-10+ real NBA rotation players and a coach not trying to lose on purpose. I'd have us in a tier with the Blazers right after the Nets/Wiz and put the Pistons above. Lot's of things could change, but the team with the least depth/most top heavy has the most potential for things to go bad IMO.
FWIW, did a quick DARKO projection with fairly optimistic minutes projections, it had us at 26.7 wins with the current roster. Keyonte not being terrible would change that quickly, however.
I guess my position is that if we end up bottom 5 its because:
1- We made a lose now trade
2- We had a key injury to Lauri, Walker, Sexton
3- The East beat up on each other and all are close enough to the play in that they don't want to pull the plug.
As-is I would bet we end up 6-8. Hardy will play guys like Bazley instead of Williams if they are truly trashy. While Darius isn't good he isn't bad bad. I think Clarkson is better this year than last.
That may be the case but I don't think the difference is that big other than maybe the nets and wiz. In the west right now it's us and the blazers and no one else really close at this point in time. That is a huge advantage for us since we play 52 games against the west and eastern conference teams only play 30.All the bad teams have bad or young players though. We Lauri/Walker/Sexton are better than the top end of all/most of the bottom 7/8 teams.
We are nowhere near a favorite to be bottom-5 lol.I think the veil has been lifted. Just as Hardy played Keyonte because "it's time", he will play Cody instead of Bazley because it is already time. Even if he doesn't think it's time, I wouldn't necessarily see Hardy as a guy who can win with a skeleton crew. I think the reasons we "overachieved" was more so a result of having tons of veteran players/depth versus Hardy magic.
Right now, I'd say we'd be a favorite to be bottom 5. "Bad" things can happen to anyone, but can also happen to us. If we're not bottom 5, I'd say we'd have really good fortune with multiple others being unfortunate.
We are nowhere near a favorite to be bottom-5 lol.
I would be shocked at this point if we finished with the 6-8th worst record with our current roster. Right now I feel like we are firmly in that 3-5 range from a roster standpoint plus playing in the more competitive conference.I guess my position is that if we end up bottom 5 its because:
1- We made a lose now trade
2- We had a key injury to Lauri, Walker, Sexton
3- The East beat up on each other and all are close enough to the play in that they don't want to pull the plug.
As-is I would bet we end up 6-8. Hardy will play guys like Bazley instead of Williams if they are truly trashy. While Darius isn't good he isn't bad bad. I think Clarkson is better this year than last.
How are we not a favorite to be bottom 5? You have the wiz and nets but after that we are right there with the blazers and maybe the bulls.We are nowhere near a favorite to be bottom-5 lol.
As a best case scenario, 50% of #5 if we have an all-time tank off. Still down for a tank for this class, but it's pretty hard to get too excited about a single playerA 14% chance
WizardsIf we are nowhere near, name 7-8 teams that are clearly worse?
Wizards
Hornets
Pistons
Nets
Blazers
Bulls
Raptors (maybe)
I’d comfortably put us 7-8 right now.
We have a lot more talent than all of these teams. Lauri, Sexton, Collins, Kessler, improved Keyonte, etc.
Stay healthy and I’d be shocked if we weren’t. Lauri/Sexton provides a great offensive base to build some wins… Walker provides a defensive floor. One or two young players play well and the rotation is pretty solid.I would be shocked at this point if we finished with the 6-8th worst record with our current roster. Right now I feel like we are firmly in that 3-5 range from a roster standpoint plus playing in the more competitive conference.