Does Lauri Get Traded?

[KqWIN]

Taylor specifically has a chance to be solid more than Scoot/Sharpe because of his role and being solid at the things he does and not moving outside of that role. Blazers are the biggest swing team for me. Deni is good but I’m projecting they make a trade. If they don’t then they are better than us.

Eubanks may not be regular rotation or a small part of it but if Walker or Collins gets hurt he is reliable depth. That’s why I named him. This isn’t the magnitude of 2022, but it is a similar theme “we will be awful… oh wait we actually are half decent because a few things went the right way that we couldn’t have seen… oh **** we need to tank really hard now.” Same thing in 23… different magnitude of course.

I'm just saying that if you count the players on the same team with the same generousity as you did with UTA, that number is wayyy higher than 7. I don't think a team like POR is clearly better than us, but I can't say they are clearly worse than us. The biggest case for the Jazz is that they have Lauri and Sexton, but those guys don't exactly have the cleanest bill of health in the past and are certainly aren't exempt from divine intervention. The more concentrated your talent it is, the more likely it is to go wayward. The only teams I can say with clear confidence are worse than us are Wiz/Nets. Maybe you want the numbers even more in our favor, I get that. But comparing this team to 22 or 23 is just not accurate.

I mean the veil was lifted in 22 too… that’s what happens at the end of the season. Most coaches aren’t going to do that all year without some serious pressure and maybe we see that… or maybe we hear about “no free minutes” in training camp again.

Hard disagree on this one. The 22 team was littered with vets and the team also started off 10-3. It's a completely different situation this time around for this reason.....the amount of vets is strikingly low. It's way different taking away minutes from an actual vet than someone like Bazley. I agree would be hard to take minutes from guys like JC and JC for Hardy. The difference is that there are way less of those guys on this year's roster than before.

 

[sip]

A disgruntled Lavine who has his own injury concerns and Pat who has a hard time staying healthy and is not in the same world as Caruso as it comes to helping teams win. Demar is VERY healthy and a league leader in minutes. That is a giant hole. Drummond was also very good for them. We will see but they project to be hot trash.

We will see. The injury issues are valid but they are also in the east. The west could just destroy us while these east teams are likely to pick up some home court wins against the other lower east teams.

 

[sip]

Stay healthy and I’d be shocked if we weren’t. Lauri/Sexton provides a great offensive base to build some wins… Walker provides a defensive floor. One or two young players play well and the rotation is pretty solid.

Lauri/Walker/Sexton with rotation vets Clarkson/Collins/Eubanks and if Key/Taylor aren’t horrific you have 7 solid rotation pieces. If we have a legit injury we could let go of the rope.

Now do that same breakdown for the other teams and you will get the same result. Particularly the Blazers, Raptors, Hornets and Pistons.

 

[TheStormofWar]

I feel like it’s 2022 all over again. People are seriously underestimating the talent we have on the team currently. Not world beaters but much better than the trashy trash teams in the East who we will be playing.

I think this is the main reason why Lauri needs to be dealt when it's practical. This half-in/half-out methodology is doing nothing for our long term prospects. OKC and Philly have demonstrated the best model that teams in our market size can follow to build something sustainable. Hitting on another Don right when we need him was a brilliant stroke of luck when we drafted him. I wouldn't count on that happening again.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

I don't know what about the last two seasons have people confident about us being a bottom 4-5 record. We've needed serious kneecapping at the trade deadline and borderline criminal "player resting" to sneak into the top 10 both years. Chicago and Brooklyn cratered, Portland is clearly worse, I don't know how anyone been be optimistic about Charlotte/Detroit, Wemby is transcendent but I think CP3 is being made into more of a difference maker at 39, etc.

And I feel we get very rosey eyed about players like Fontecchio, going into least season very few considered him a piece that could affect winning. Who knows who will pop this year.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I would estimate that with our current roster we would be in the 7-10th worst record by the trade deadline and then we get really disgusting and get to 5th-6th. Things can change between now and the start of the season, but this is my current prediction.

One thing to consider is that with so many bad teams in the East there are going to be tanking teams that are technically in the play in race by the deadline. Also the East teams have to play the other tanking east teams, so it's going to be harder for them all to have bad records.

 

[sip]

I don't know what about the last two seasons have people confident about us being a bottom 4-5 record. We've needed serious kneecapping at the trade deadline and borderline criminal "player resting" to sneak into the top 10 both years. Chicago and Brooklyn cratered, Portland is clearly worse, I don't know how anyone been be optimistic about Charlotte/Detroit, Wemby is transcendent but I think CP3 is being made into more of a difference maker at 39, etc.

And I feel we get very rosey eyed about players like Fontecchio, going into least season very few considered him a piece that could affect winning. Who knows who will pop this year.

How is Portland clearly worse? I'm looking forward to your reasoning because I don't see it.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

It's probably not worth discussing too much in detail until we know what our final team looks like, but just based on our current roster there are a couple of things that could swing our record in big ways.

- Can Kessler be incorporated in to the offense successfully enough to play the type of minutes we need for him to impact our defense?
- Can Clarkson play better, how much rope does Hardy give him if he's not
- Do any of our young guys step up and play winning basketball?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I can't find the post, but I remember a couple of years ago looking up the record of all of the past bottom 5 defenses, and there were very few who managed a record above 30 wins. It's hard for me to imagine this team being better than a bottom 5 defense, and so it's hard to imagine having more than 30 wins, I think that's kind of our ceiling right now.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

How is Portland clearly worse? I'm looking forward to your reasoning because I don't see it.

Does Portland currently have anyone on their team worth 3+ picks and 3+ swaps?

FWIW, I'm not sure I would say we are clearly better, but the reason we are probably better is Lauri.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Now do that same breakdown for the other teams and you will get the same result. Particularly the Blazers, Raptors, Hornets and Pistons.

Yes but our top 3 are better. I haven't included the Raps myself as I think they are a play in team. Pistons were historically bad and Cade was mostly healthy. I get they had some bad coaching but Harris, hardaway Jr., and a new coach may not double their win total.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And while playing in the West is a big factor, we also have a distinct home court advantage. It will stack a few wins in there that you may not consider. We also haven't factored in a team like SA who is likely too good but an early season injury to Wemby and we know how elite they are at tanking.

 

[framer]

How far are we from flagg sweepstake if we trade lauri?

If he trade Lauri we are in the tank race for the next 4 or 5 years minimum.

 

[HermanG]

I feel like it’s 2022 all over again. People are seriously underestimating the talent we have on the team currently. Not world beaters but much better than the trashy trash teams in the East who we will be playing.

I agree. I think people are also seriously underestimating how many guys had "down years" last year. Lauri's offseason was suboptimal, JC had a down year, Kessler had a down year. Also Key has a lot of potential to improve and TH was just learning the basics of his job, and I think he may be able to fill some of the void left by Simone. I even think Johnny Juzang may be a sneaky good role player who does what Tech, Dunn and some other guys have done for us and elevate into looking like an NBA player.

If we want to suck bottom 5 we need to trade Lauri. I dont even think trading just Clarkson and Collins cuts it. Key + Sexton backcourt is very bad defensively, but if the defense is anchored by Kessler and Hendricks turns into an NBA player we may be stingy inside.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If he trade Lauri we are in the tank race for the next 4 or 5 years minimum.

Could be 4-5 years, but minimum is not true.

 

[framer]

Wizards
Hornets
Pistons
Nets
Blazers
Bulls
Raptors (maybe)

I’d comfortably put us 7-8 right now.

We have a lot more talent than all of these teams. Lauri, Sexton, Collins, Kessler, improved Keyonte, etc.

If Keyonte drags us to 8th, we already got our guy.

 

[HermanG]

Could be 4-5 years, but minimum is not true.

Yeah we have a lot of young prospects some of which look like they will be NBA players. We find a guy and we might see a similar turnaround Magic had within few years of that.

I'd say minimum 2-3 years being bad, but that depends on draft luck.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If Keyonte drags us to 8th, we already got our guy.

Keyonte could take us from 7th to 8th or 6th to 8th but he’s not the guy dragging us from 3rd to 8th. Now if he took us from 6th to 12th or something then we’re talking.

 

[Elizah Huge]

FWIW, next years draft 2026 is extremely strong at the top as well. I think Dybantsa is a better prospect than Flagg and Boozer is the real deal himself. Our pick is also top-8 protected next year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know what about the last two seasons have people confident about us being a bottom 4-5 record. We've needed serious kneecapping at the trade deadline and borderline criminal "player resting" to sneak into the top 10 both years. Chicago and Brooklyn cratered, Portland is clearly worse, I don't know how anyone been be optimistic about Charlotte/Detroit, Wemby is transcendent but I think CP3 is being made into more of a difference maker at 39, etc.

And I feel we get very rosey eyed about players like Fontecchio, going into least season very few considered him a piece that could affect winning. Who knows who will pop this year.

Exactly. Last year you’d have been lol’d if you thought Tech was going to have a material impact on winning but that’s what happens if you have really good players still… those guys that fill in the gaps have an exaggerated impact. I doubt Bazley is that guy but he will be more competent than rookies and second year guys… so if coach defers to him and you bandaid that hole that was going to take you from bad to horrible that ain’t great.