ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Ya you said the Lauri trade is baked in. If that is the case then obviously betters would be betting that the jazz would be worse than with Lauri which would cause the line to go down.


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I'm saying the possibility of the Lauri trade is baked in. Yall can be so dense sometimes it's unbelievable.

Because guess waht the biggest trade rumor of the past week has been?

The Lauri Markkanen trades rumors. If you are going to place a bet on the Utah Jazz, you are considering what is going to happen with Lauri given the fact that August 6th is a pivotal date in which the landscape of the league will gain some sort of clarity.

 

[fishonjazz]

How can my first paragraph be incorrect when all I saw was the facts of the situation?

You said there is a massive infection point in 12 days that will change the line.

I think that is incorrect. I think the line will remain the same or barely move at all.

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[fishonjazz]

I'm saying the possibility of the Lauri trade is baked in. Yall can be so dense sometimes it's unbelievable.

And how would that possibility affect the line?

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

I'm done Fish. I give up.

 

[Elizah Huge]

You don't gamble do you? They set the line at what they believe is the correct win total and make adjustments as the money comes in on one side of the line or the other. They don't base that line on if a future trade may happen or not.

Brother, sit this one out. That is not how win totals work at all.

 

[Elizah Huge]

And how would that possibility affect the line?

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They make it lower to account for that possibility happening.

 

[fishonjazz]

If the possibility of Lauri being traded had a decent size affect on the line and the betting, then once that possibility is eliminated there should be another decent size affect on the line and the betting.

We should be able to compare the line that was made when there was a possibility of Lauri being traded to the line that will be made once that possibility no longer exists and we should notice a decent difference between the two lines.

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[fishonjazz]

They make it lower to account for that possibility happening.

Exactly my point. So if this is true then we should see it go up when the possibility of Lauri being traded no longer exists.
Easy peasy
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[Elizah Huge]

If the possibility of Lauri being traded had a decent size affect on the line and the betting, then once that possibility is eliminated there should be another decent size affect on the line and the betting.

We should be able to compare the line that was made when there was a possibility of Lauri being traded to the line that will be made once that possibility no longer exists and we should notice a decent difference between the two lines.

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There will be if he’s not traded. It would likely go up to around 31.5.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Like if Lauri is traded do people think it wouldn’t go lower?

It’s in the middle to account for both sides.

 

[fishonjazz]

There will be if he’s not traded. It would likely go up to around 31.5.

Yep.
I dont think that happens.

If I am betting on something then I bet on the more likely thing because I want to win. Why would I bet on something that is unlikely to happen and is a total hypothetical and I didn't even know what the trade would look like?

I think the bets being made on the jazz season win total are being made by people betting with Lauri on the jazz and not the warriors

Also, the warriors total should be too high if folks are betting on their win total with Lauri on their roster so everyone should definitely bet the under on the warriors and over on the jazz. After all, what is the tone watch again (pretty low iirc)

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[fishonjazz]

Like if Lauri is traded do people think it wouldn’t go lower?

.

100% yes! Because that would mean his isn't on the jazz anymore.
But I don't think it would be lower because he is on the jazz. Like he currently is.


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[Elizah Huge]

Yep.
I dont think that happens.

If I am betting on something then I bet on the more likely thing because I want to win. Why would I bet on something that is unlikely to happen and is a total hypothetical and I didn't even know what the trade would look like?

I think the bets being made on the jazz season win total are being made by people betting with Lauri on the jazz and not the warriors

Also, the warriors total should be too high if folks are betting on their win total with Lauri on their roster so everyone should definitely bet the under on the warriors and over on the jazz. After all, what is the tone watch again (pretty low iirc)

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They have to account for the possibility. If you think he’s getting traded take the under on the Jazz and over on the Warriors.

They can’t put the line too high in case he actually is traded. They’d get crushed. If they came out with 31.5 or 32.5 everyone and their mom would be pounding the under.

28.5 is right in the middle where if you think he’s on the team you might take the over but it’s not a crazy low number it makes you think twice.

 

[MT Steve]

Yep.
I dont think that happens.

If I am betting on something then I bet on the more likely thing because I want to win. Why would I bet on something that is unlikely to happen and is a total hypothetical and I didn't even know what the trade would look like?

I think the bets being made on the jazz season win total are being made by people betting with Lauri on the jazz and not the warriors

Take a look around the internet: Many people disagree with you that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I personally don't, but many do.

 

[fishonjazz]

They have to account for the possibility. If you think he’s getting traded take the under on the Jazz and over on the Warriors.

They can’t put the line too high in case he actually is traded. They’d get crushed. If they came out with 31.5 or 32.5 everyone and their mom would be pounding the under.

28.5 is right in the middle where if you think he’s on the team you might take the over but it’s not a crazy low number it makes you think twice.

Again. We will see if that line has a significant jump when Lauri isn't traded.
You and cy think it will. Sip and I don't think it will. We will see.

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[fishonjazz]

Take a look around the internet: Many people disagree with you that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I personally don't, but many do.

I disagree with you that many people disagree with me that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

I think that an overwhelming majority of people think he stays with the jazz.

I think that most everyone knows that trades don't happen in late july/August much. I think everyone knows that ainge has a price that is too high for the warriors. There is just so much history to go off of.


I dont think hardly anyone feels confident that Lauri gets traded to the warriors this summer.
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[MT Steve]

I disagree with you that many people disagree with me that a Lauri trade is unlikely to happen.

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That's fine.

You and sip are arguing two different things, by the way. Sip thinks that people who set lines fundamentally do not account for anything other than the current roster. You think that there is nothing to bake in because nobody believes Lauri will be traded.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You and cy think it will. Sip and I don't think it will. We will see.

Congratulations, you have stumbled upon what we have all been saying. Betting lines are based around many possibilities that may or may not happen and your view on those possibilities shapes how you view a bet and influences how you bet and Vegas attempts to understand all these complex factors and sets of people to create a line, a line that will be ever changing based on how people react to it and as things develop!

It's always funny when people who are so dumb on a topic will eventually talk themselves into a point that is right by accident.

 

[fishonjazz]

That's fine.

You and sip are arguing two different things, by the way. Sip thinks that people who set lines fundamentally do not account for anything other than the current roster. You think that there is nothing to bake in because nobody believes Lauri will be traded.

True.
Like if the jazz were well known to be desperate to be rid of Lauri and was shopping him around to everyone for a low return (like due to salary cap issues etc) then I think Vegas would lower the line because betters would think that it was almost certain that Lauri was gone.



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[fishonjazz]

Congratulations, you have stumbled upon what we have all been saying. Betting lines are based around many possibilities that may or may not happen and your view on those possibilities shapes how you view a bet and influences how you bet and Vegas attempts to understand all these complex factors and sets of people to create a line, a line that will be ever changing based on how people react to it and as things develop!

It's always funny when people who are so dumb on a topic will eventually talk themselves into a point that is right by accident.

Been saying this all along. I dont think the line has anything to do with Lauri being in an extremely unlikely trade rumor.
Therefore I think it will remain very similar to what it currently is after Lauri is re-signed with the jazz long term.
If he is in fact traded then I think we see a big drop in the line.
We will see who is correct.


One thing is for sure, if the line jumps by 3 or 4 games after the jazz extend Lauri and you point it out to me I will 100% bow down and admit I was wrong.

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