ESPN Bet Sets Jazz O/U at 28.5

[fishonjazz]

Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?

I already posted about this but I will do so again.

If the jazz were aggressively shopping Lauri and Lauri was demanding a trade and Lauri couldn't get way more money by staying then yes, I think that would be reflected.


My stance has not been that betters didn't account for probable trades. I think they do. I know I would.

My stance has been that betters are betting on the jazz roster as is (with Lauri) because that is almost certain to be the roster for the upcoming season. Therefore the line of 28.5 doesn't have an unlikely trade of Lauri baked in. And I believe that after the jazz extend him we will see almost no movement in the 28.5 number.

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[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also Clarkson and Collins are on multiple year deals. They aren't just vets you can hang up and disrespect.

A trade has to happen if they desire to be a bottom 5 team

 

[MT Steve]

I already posted about this but I will do so again.

If the jazz were aggressively shopping Lauri and Lauri was demanding a trade and Lauri couldn't get way more money by staying then yes, I think that would be reflected.


My stance has not been that betters didn't account for probable trades. I think they do. I know I would.

My stance has been that betters are betting on the jazz roster as is (with Lauri) because that is almost certain to be the roster for the upcoming season. Therefore the line of 28.5 doesn't have an unlikely trade of Lauri baked in. And I believe that after the jazz extend him we will see almost no movement in the 28.5 number.

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Gotcha - thanks for clarifying.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?

Just give up. Sip and Fish aren't capable of thinking beyond what's immediately in front of them.

 

[fishonjazz]

28 wins seem super close. Rookies are generally terribly defensively and can fuel a tank pretty hard.

Agreed. I wouldn't touch that line

If Lauri were traded then I would take the under but of course if Lauri is traded then the line probably drops to like 24 or 25 due to so many betters taking the under 28.5 bet after Lauri was traded.

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[KqWIN]

Yeah I don't see a comparison to the previous two seasons. Those two seasons had rosters that were flooded with vets. On one hand, people are saying JC x2 are going to ruin the tank, but on the other hand we give no credit to having these vets in previous seasons. Last season, the goal at the beginning of the year was to make the playoffs and we had acquired talent to do so. The end of the season is going to be no different, we're going to be blatantly tanking once again. The difference is that we're not going to be hovering around .500 for the first two thirds of the season.

Anything can happen, of course, but I would definitely bet on this team being at least two games worse.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Y

Nah. We all agree that the betters are what set the line. I just think that the betters are smart and like to win. I think the betters believe that Lauri sticks with the jazz this season just like all the experts think as well and they are betting accordingly and I think that we will see the line remain mostly the same as it currently is when Lauri extends with the jazz and isn't eligible for trade.

I don't know why you think that take is outlandish. What is unreasonable about it?

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Yea, not falling for the bait. I'm good. Whatever you say you are welcome to believe in. Multiple people here have already spelled it out for y'all clear enough

 

[fishonjazz]

Btw I'm not claiming to be some expert on all of this and calling anyone stupid for disagreeing with me. (I will leave that to cy like usual) I very well could be wrong.
My opinion is based off my own logic and common sense.

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[JazzFever]

Also Clarkson and Collins are on multiple year deals. They aren't just vets you can hang up and disrespect.

A trade has to happen if they desire to be a bottom 5 team

Both of those players are net negative on plus/minus:

Clarkson -5.4 per 100
Collins -7.7 per 100

vs Lauri at +.5 and Sexton at -3.3.

playing Clarkson/Collins /contributes/ to losing games, more so than THT did last season (-5.1).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Both of those players are net negative on plus/minus:

Clarkson -5.4 per 100
Collins -7.7 per 100

vs Lauri at +.5 and Sexton at -3.3.

playing Clarkson/Collins /contributes/ to losing games, more so than THT did last season (-5.1).

Sure, they aren't amazing players, but both were used in suboptimal positions for long stretches. Also, we aren't talking about being a playoff team. We are talking about winning a few more games than they would without them. The key games when you are on the road playing the Bulls/Raptors/Pistons/Wizards/etc.

Clarkson is going to come off the bench, at less minutes, and probably be a better player.

Collins played next to Kessler ot start the season and it was awful for everyone. He's played well in the 2nd half. He's a solid player and has been a better defender than he was in Utah. I expect him to play better as well.

 

[MT Steve]

Just give up. Sip and Fish aren't capable of thinking beyond what's immediately in front of them.

I think with fish it's the difference between believing that a lot of people still think a Lauri trade is likely vs believing that everybody has moved on and pretty much universally believes a trade isn't happening. I don't agree that everybody has moved on, but if you think that's the case, then his logic is fine.

Sip, though... yeah. Sip is weirdly dug in on arguing that people setting the lines completely ignore the likelihood of trades, which is just flat-out wrong.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think with fish it's the difference between believing that a lot of people still think a Lauri trade is likely vs believing that everybody has moved on and pretty much universally believes a trade isn't happening. I don't agree that everybody has moved on, but if you think that's the case, then his logic is fine.

Sip, though... yeah. Sip is weirdly dug in on arguing that people setting the lines completely ignore the likelihood of trades, which is just flat-out wrong.

Idk why we are overly focused on just Lauri. It's everything. It's Sexton. It's the Walker rumors. It's everything. That's the point. People think Utah will makes moves to get actively worse. But people also know Danny doesn't sell low. Also Utah has played well prior to the ASB twice in a row when people assumed all out tanks. Also the schedule hasn't even come out yet. We don't know if we are paying the great West teams 3 times or 4 times. We don't know how many B2Bs we have. Etc.

 

[JazzFever]

Sure, they aren't amazing players, but both were used in suboptimal positions for long stretches. Also, we aren't talking about being a playoff team. We are talking about winning a few more games than they would without them. The key games when you are on the road playing the Bulls/Raptors/Pistons/Wizards/etc.

Clarkson is going to come off the bench, at less minutes, and probably be a better player.

Collins played next to Kessler ot start the season and it was awful for everyone. He's played well in the 2nd half. He's a solid player and has been a better defender than he was in Utah. I expect him to play better as well.

Maybe, but based on their age/experience, they are just as likely to be worse, not better.

Jordan may have peaked- but his main issues have always been mental, so if he can reign himself in and play smart, he could be very good. Of course if so, he gets traded quickly.

Collins though, just seems to have a low motor. He is good in small stretches when he gets motivated by something happening on court, but most of the time he just seems to be getting by. He would probably need a personality transplant to play at a substantially better level.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Maybe, but based on their age/experience, they are just as likely to be worse, not better.

Jordan may have peaked- but his main issues have always been mental, so if he can reign himself in and play smart, he could be very good. Of course if so, he gets traded quickly.

Collins though, just seems to have a low motor. He is good in small stretches when he gets motivated by something happening on court, but most of the time he just seems to be getting by. He would probably need a personality transplant to play at a substantially better level.

That's not typically how it works. It's not like he has two good weeks and suddenly teams want him. It's usually the deadline approaches and teams weigh their options and if he has played well up to the point vs the other available options, they trade for him.

Collins is 26. It was his first year on a team. That's definitely a situation where someone can improve. Mike Conley improved in his 2nd year as an old *** dude.

 

[JazzFever]

That's not typically how it works. It's not like he has two good weeks and suddenly teams want him. It's usually the deadline approaches and teams weigh their options and if he has played well up to the point vs the other available options, they trade for him.

Collins is 26. It was his first year on a team. That's definitely a situation where someone can improve. Mike Conley improved in his 2nd year as an old *** dude.

I just mean that if Clarkson is substantially hurting the tank he'll be gone at the first opportunity.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just mean that if Clarkson is substantially hurting the tank he'll be gone at the first opportunity.

Please read what I said, Jesus Christ.

 

[HermanG]

Idk why we are overly focused on just Lauri. It's everything. It's Sexton. It's the Walker rumors. It's everything. That's the point. People think Utah will makes moves to get actively worse. But people also know Danny doesn't sell low. Also Utah has played well prior to the ASB twice in a row when people assumed all out tanks. Also the schedule hasn't even come out yet. We don't know if we are paying the great West teams 3 times or 4 times. We don't know how many B2Bs we have. Etc.

This is the key. "Tanking" in one way or another is baked into the number because that is what talking heads expect us to do and what everyone thinks we should do.

That is not a reflection of roster strength. Its a combination of roster strength and expected strategy.

However if we go into the season looking to let the guys compete then who are the good vets we trade out this time to shoot the tires? The end of season tank is gonna be harder to execute the younger we get.

 

[KqWIN]

This is the key. "Tanking" in one way or another is baked into the number because that is what talking heads expect us to do and what everyone thinks we should do.

That is not a reflection of roster strength. Its a combination of roster strength and expected strategy.

However if we go into the season looking to let the guys compete then who are the good vets we trade out this time to shoot the tires? The end of season tank is gonna be harder to execute the younger we get.

We don’t have the good vets to trade this time, which is why I expect to be worse this year than previous years. Whenever someone says something along the lines of “Clarkson and Collins are going to ruin the tank”, I see that as evidence as to why we’re going to be worse than previous years. Vets do indeed win you games but we have significantly less of those guys.

Are we bad enough to get the number one lotto position? Probably not, and we could never expect that without trading Lauri. But are we bad enough to be two games worse than last year? I certainly think so.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also no one is accounting for if Lauri takes another step

 

[Nate505]

Taking the over. This team doesn't know how to tank, thankfully.