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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Here are some key dates coming up:

Duke vs Arizona Friday 11/22
Duke vs Kansas Tuesday 11/26
Rutgers at Notre Dame Tuesday 11/26
Rutgers at Alabama Wednesday 11/27
Baylor at Connecticut Wednesday 12/4
BYU vs Ole Miss Thursday 11/28
 
Ok I need someone to convince me that Ace Bailey's ceiling is something more than a slightly different version of Michael Porter Jr (lesser shooter, more willing passer). I cant see him handling the ball any more than MPJ in the NBA, as his handle is high/loose and he wasnt even creating advantages consistently off the dribble against whoever Monmouth had guarding him. His zero assists was a weird glitch in the matrix though as he actually did look like a more willing passer than MPJ. His defensive IQ is also suspect. He gave Monmouth a handful of open lanes because of bad rotations/gambles.

One was particularly boneheaded (at 15:45 in the second half) where he inexplicably rotated away from the ball to a terrible trailing position against a guy going towards the corner giving up a wide open lane. Even if Dylan Harper (who was in better position to pick up that open guy) picks up the ballhandler instead there, Bailey would have been already beat to the rim. The most you can do is flash into the passing lane, but you dont actually turn your back to the ball and commit to no mans land, unless you are sure that someone is there to pick up the ballhandler.

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And after all that bullying.... I dont actually hate him as a prospect. Right now I dont seem him having #1 option upside (which is what we should gamble for, if we gamble), so I wouldnt take my chances with him if the draft happened today... but feel free to sell me some snake oil.
 
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HermanG said:
Ok I need someone to convince me that Ace Bailey's ceiling is something more than a slightly different version of Michael Porter Jr (lesser shooter, more willing passer). I cant see him handling the ball any more than MPJ in the NBA, as his handle is high/loose and he wasnt even creating advantages consistently off the dribble against whoever Monmouth had guarding him. His zero assists was a weird glitch in the matrix though as he actually did look like a more willing passer than MPJ. His defensive IQ is also suspect. He gave Monmouth a handful of open lanes because of bad rotations/gambles.

One was particularly boneheaded (at 15:45 in the second half) where he inexplicably rotated away from the ball to a terrible trailing position against a guy going towards the corner giving up a wide open lane. Even if Dylan Harper (who was in better position to pick up that open guy) picks up the ballhandler instead there, Bailey would have been already beat to the rim. The most you can do is flash into the passing lane, but you dont actually turn your back to the ball and commit to no mans land, unless you are sure that someone is there to pick up the ballhandler.

View attachment 17612

And after all that bullying.... I dont actually hate him as a prospect. Right now I dont seem him having #1 option upside (which is what we should gamble for, if we gamble), so I wouldnt take my chances with him if the draft happened today... but feel free to sell me some snake oil.
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it's one game - his first game - as an 18 year old. one game. age 18. i have to see A LOT more of him to make any kind of assessment and even after watching him all season, he will still only be 18. you talk about his ballhandling and his defensive iq - both of those things are things that can and should improve a ton just over the course of the season, but also over the course of the next 5 years.

if the draft happened today - i wouldn't have a clue what to do. with any of the prospects, let alone bailey who i've seen even fewer times than the other guys.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
it's one game - his first game - as an 18 year old. one game. age 18. i have to see A LOT more of him to make any kind of assessment and even after watching him all season, he will still only be 18. you talk about his ballhandling and his defensive iq - both of those things are things that can and should improve a ton just over the course of the season, but also over the course of the next 5 years.

if the draft happened today - i wouldn't have a clue what to do. with any of the prospects, let alone bailey who i've seen even fewer times than the other guys.
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I worded my post poorly. I didnt mean to put a lid on his development... but more to see what he is right now compared to the other freshmen, a lot whom have shown out. Any progress that may or may not happen before the draft will be taken into account, but with some of the other top tier prospects (Flagg, Demin, Harper I have watched) I can see them being able to do things that can lead to them being top tier guys if they can just do those things against NBA defenders.

With Bailey his verifiable non-projected strengths seem to be measurables, athleticism and tough shot making, so right now he essentially is Michael Porter Jr in my eyes. I saw one elite move that he did really well (his turnaround fadeaway was KDesque), and his crossover looks like it could become something (albeit he didnt really nail it once against Monmouth). But before he starts properly punking these college kids I'm not projecting him as a certifiable bucket getter in the NBA like a lot of others seem to be doing.

And of course his dribbling and defensive IQ are going to improve. But if those are bad for the level he plays at right now, then how far are they from being NBA level?
 
“It’s one game” but the points @HermanG pointed out have always been a concern for Ace. Ace’s first game did a good job of highlighting the strengths and weaknesses he has as a prospect.
 
I really want to see what Egor looks like when he starts playing actual college teams and not WTF Tech St. I do get the feeling I may get irrationally high on him but it looks like that is going around.

Bailey and Harper I have my concerns that many have outlined. VJ is another guy I likely am going to be higher on. Just such a smooth explosive athlete. Does the "winning stuff" but not sure if the other stuff will be on full display in the college environment.

Give me any of those 5 guys (coop/Demin/VJ/Harper/Bailey) and I think I am happy. Theoretically Egor is just one of those guys that opens up so much stuff for teams.
 
I'm probably never gonna get to form a top 10 as I'm just trying to learn this whole scouting thing.. but my random thoughts/rankings are just concerning the guys I list. If he isnt on the list, then I dont know who the hell he is. Currently:

1) Flagg - I think he is the only guy I feel like is nearly guaranteed to be good two-way player in the NBA. He is somewhat undefined as an offensive player, and how his shooting develops is gonna make a massive difference in how good he can become. I'm sure his defense is gonna be there and he will be a guy who makes a lot of "winning play", but may need someone else to carry the torch on offense with him being the secondary guy (doesnt mean he cant be the best player, just not likely the primary on ball option). Ridiculous athleticism for a white dude.

2) Demin - He truely looks and feels like a legit PG prospect and his passing and vision are already really good. I believe he will become NBA level handler and isnt bad as he is right now. If he learns to knock down 3s with a faster launch, his offensive ceiling could be close to #1 option level. Defensively he may be a Josh Giddey (excuse the weak white comp)... but at least he isnt Luka (excuse the second weak white comp). He has the length to improve his defense, but even in the best scenario he is probably not capable of defending PoA at a high level, especially against quicker guards.

3) Harper - Gonna be a turnstile on defense early on, but if he ever figures that side of the ball out he will likely be a very good player. He is a fake point guard who may or may not be able to shoot. I think out of the top 3 he is the best 3 level scorer out of the gate and that comes down to his awesome ability to finish at the rim. Really nice touch on layups and such. One real concern on him is does he have enough explosiveness to get to the rim in the NBA? Spacing should help, but on ball defenders are also quicker with better footwork. Remains to be seen, but he feels like a gamble worth taking.

4) Bailey - Already went into detail. Hopefully he shames my MPJ comments. Wouldnt hate him at all and he is definitely WAY more of a blue chip prospect than any of our current young guys.

5) Abdi Bashir Jr - I mean did you see than Monmouth - Rutgers game? Dude was carrying his team like prime Steph, getting 17 threes up (most of them off the dribble) and making 10 of them.

To be continued.
 
HermanG said:
Ok I need someone to convince me that Ace Bailey's ceiling is something more than a slightly different version of Michael Porter Jr (lesser shooter, more willing passer). I cant see him handling the ball any more than MPJ in the NBA, as his handle is high/loose and he wasnt even creating advantages consistently off the dribble against whoever Monmouth had guarding him. His zero assists was a weird glitch in the matrix though as he actually did look like a more willing passer than MPJ. His defensive IQ is also suspect. He gave Monmouth a handful of open lanes because of bad rotations/gambles.

One was particularly boneheaded (at 15:45 in the second half) where he inexplicably rotated away from the ball to a terrible trailing position against a guy going towards the corner giving up a wide open lane. Even if Dylan Harper (who was in better position to pick up that open guy) picks up the ballhandler instead there, Bailey would have been already beat to the rim. The most you can do is flash into the passing lane, but you dont actually turn your back to the ball and commit to no mans land, unless you are sure that someone is there to pick up the ballhandler.

View attachment 17612

And after all that bullying.... I dont actually hate him as a prospect. Right now I dont seem him having #1 option upside (which is what we should gamble for, if we gamble), so I wouldnt take my chances with him if the draft happened today... but feel free to sell me some snake oil.
Click to expand...

The pie-in-the-sky, dream scenario for Ace Bailey would be that he's in the same ballpark as Kevin Durant. Bailey is long and he's athletic, but he may not be explosive enough to get by tough wing defenders. (Now, having said that, I once said the same thing about Brandon Miller, and he's looked better in the NBA. So grain of salt...) Bailey is going to rise up and shoot over defenders, or pull from deep. He's got a confident, high release, but his ceiling as an offensive player probably comes down to his shot-making and gravity. He'll need someone else to be the initiator and get him some touches, so he doesn't need to force isolations all the time.

Maybe a reasonable expectation would be to say he's a richer version of Brandon Miller, imo. Bailey is more athletic than the injury-riddled version of MPJ.
 
Yall are sleeping on Kylian Kounde for real.

For me there are 5 guys I’d be happy with if you guarantee me them right now. It’s tbd how much separation between 1-5 is.
 
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