The Kas-Wolf scenario isn't my #1 dream scenario. Definitely hoping for Flagg. And while I'd be happy taking Fleming with the MIN pick, Wolf has currently risen above him on my board—especially because of his fit on Utah's roster.
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I feel like I've gotten to the point where I can watch anymore Flagg because every game I see will just increase the pain when we inevitably dont get the 1st pick.
Listen. If there ever was a year Silver throws us a bone its the year when a white boy is projected #1.
If I’m talking just about how I feel I have him maybe #2 (after Flagg).
Like, if the consensus coming into the season about Wolf was “OMG, this dude is the consensus #1; generational talent, etc.” I’d have no bone to pick.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Duke vs. Boston College was a perfect encapsulation of why Flagg will be an underwhelming NBA player. He does 90% of his damage by simply powering through undersized NCAA 4's and 5's and getting free dunks because of awful team defenses that consistently fail to keep track of all of Duke's blue chippers.
The thing is, Flagg is just 6'8'' and not really a fast twitch guy. For a guard or forward, if your quickness is just OK in college ball, you will be slow in the NBA. Flagg very rarely gets past anyone, which would definitely concern me if I was planning to draft him. He just lowers his shoulder, spams pivots on his way to the basket and powers through these future plumbers.
He won't be doing any of that in the league. What is he in the NBA? I mean that's something you don't necessarily have to know if you take someone with the 15th pick, but #1 is a different animal, particularly when the guy is not a generational raw talent. Flagg is not a LeBron, where you think "We don't care if he's a rim-crashing point guard or a playmaking PF in the NBA, we'll figure it out later".
Can you insert him in the offense as a first option? Definitely not. He's not even the first option at Duke. Do you treat him as a do-it-all forward who fills the blanks with his length? Possibly, but is that really a #1 pick?
The thing is, Flagg is just 6'8'' and not really a fast twitch guy. For a guard or forward, if your quickness is just OK in college ball, you will be slow in the NBA. Flagg very rarely gets past anyone, which would definitely concern me if I was planning to draft him. He just lowers his shoulder, spams pivots on his way to the basket and powers through these future plumbers.
He won't be doing any of that in the league. What is he in the NBA? I mean that's something you don't necessarily have to know if you take someone with the 15th pick, but #1 is a different animal, particularly when the guy is not a generational raw talent. Flagg is not a LeBron, where you think "We don't care if he's a rim-crashing point guard or a playmaking PF in the NBA, we'll figure it out later".
Can you insert him in the offense as a first option? Definitely not. He's not even the first option at Duke. Do you treat him as a do-it-all forward who fills the blanks with his length? Possibly, but is that really a #1 pick?
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
That older post was very prescient. The flaws I list have indeed gotten exposed and he can't dribble the ball against any real pressure, even in college.
However, I didn't put enough weight on the fact that Flagg is being carried by a great team, and also failed to foresee that ACC is a garbage fire this year. My bad.
I have to say sending Flagg to Duke was a stroke of genius by his handlers. Literally the perfect team for him this season. With like four NBA prospects, they knew he wouldn't get all the defensive attention there, enabling him to look great with free dunks and being guarded by future used car salesmen.
However, I didn't put enough weight on the fact that Flagg is being carried by a great team, and also failed to foresee that ACC is a garbage fire this year. My bad.
I have to say sending Flagg to Duke was a stroke of genius by his handlers. Literally the perfect team for him this season. With like four NBA prospects, they knew he wouldn't get all the defensive attention there, enabling him to look great with free dunks and being guarded by future used car salesmen.
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Extra weirdo behavior
Let it go, man.
How can you be carried by a team when you are the leader in basically every single stat?
I'm one of those who believes that some of the lottery picks are, in fact, rigged. The Cooper pick will be rigged for someone, whether it's for Utah or someone like Brooklyn, who could use the help.
One problem with the Jazz is that the fans enthusiastically support the team regardless of the product that gets put out on the court, so the league might be less motivated to throw Utah a bone. It's the franchises that need real help to keep fans interested or to protect their valuation that tend to win the lottery. In the case of Wembanyama, San Antonio was reportedly his preferred destination.
Some of the picks will be randomly drawn though, and I could see the Jazz getting the 3rd or 4th pick as a result.
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
My problem with Wolf is he is a turnover machine.
David Hume
Well-Known Member
As of now, the “lottery is sometimes rigged” hypothesis cannot be verified. (Nor, for that matter, can the “it’s not rigged” be proven true). Rigging might happen, it might not, and we might not ever know. It would be fascinating if at some point in the future the NBA admitted to doing it, but I don’t see that happening. I personally am agnostic on whether or not they rig this stuff, outright belief in rigging is just too much belief for me.
David Hume
Well-Known Member
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
Honestly, if it IS rigged I could see Flagg getting sent to Utah because he is the perfect fit here and would be playing Wemby. The NBA loves to have a team to hate. That seems to be the Jazz. One of the highest ranked NBA finals of all time was the Jazz/Bulls series. Why because people hated on the Jazz.
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
I don't think Demin is a lottery pick any more. He is NOT a leader and at best is a role player. Doesn't play enough defense to justify his poor offense. Even his passing has struggled in conference play.
The value of top picks is far too great to allow the outcome to be left entirely to chance. Enough picks can remain random, such that the league can maintain its position that "Picks are random." However, the number of fortuitous outcomes for the league are too numerous and consistent for the odds to say this is random. A few examples:
- The LA Lakers are the NBA's most important franchise for TV ratings, literally holding down the west coast time slots. The Lakers moved up in the lottery 4 times consecutively, receiving picks #2, #2, #2, #4. Mathematically, this is not impossible, but it is improbable.
- Amidst this string of good luck for the Lakers, Lebron moves from Miami to LA in free agency, but the team around him isn't good enough to compete in the playoffs. Lebron misses something like 1/4 of the season with some nagging injury (a sore groin, lol). Anthony Davis concurrently tries to force a trade to the Lakers, literally quitting on his New Orleans Pelicans team and leaving them in shambles. Both the Lakers and the Pelicans franchises are in a state of disarray. Then low-and-behold, the Lakers move up from #10 in the lottery standings into the top 4, so they can add the #4 pick to their young players, Ingram and Ball, in a trade package to the Pelicans to acquire Anthony Davis. As 'fate' would have it, the lottery gods also give the Pels the #1 pick in the draft to start their rebuild with Zion Williamson. The league gets a win-win. The Lakers are now a contender, TV networks have something to talk about, and the Pels have high-level lottery talent to stabilize their franchise and rebuild. Whew! Crisis averted.
- Houston Rockets ownership took huge financial losses during the Covid pandemic. (They're largely invested in commercial real estate.) The Rockets, who just lost James Harden when he basically checked out on them Anthony Davis-style, get four consecutive top-4 picks (Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard). Now Houston tanked their season for each of these picks. The odds were decent for them to get a high pick in each draft individually, but to move up 4x in a row is still a fairly low probability--like .50 * .50 * .50 * .50 = 6.75%. It's like flipping a coin 4 times and getting heads each time.
- Michael Jordan sells the Charlotte Hornets. The new ownership gets the #2 pick in the draft (Brandon Miller), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal. The deal officially closes 7 weeks later.
- The Milwaukee Bucks are sold to new ownership, who likewise then get the #2 pick in the draft (Jabari Parker), which effectively helps to sweeten the deal.
- Cleveland fans were literally rioting and burning Lebron jerseys when he left in free agency to go to Miami. The following summer, the Cavs get the #1 pick to draft Kyrie Irving and start their rebuild. One #1 pick isn't enough for the franchise to recover from losing Lebron, so then Cleveland proceeds to soon win two more #1 picks back-to-back (Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins). Fans get over losing Lebron somewhat, though he decides to go back to Cleveland to team up with Kyrie if the Cavs will trade one of those #1 picks back to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Such a feel-good story.
At some point, it wouldn't surprise me if the league simply asks Cooper Flagg's camp if there are teams in the lottery he'd be willing to play for. After all, a big-name, high-impact white American player is going to draw attention and help carry the league's image with Lebron aging out. Gilbert Arenas, in one of his podcasts, made it sound as though the league basically set up Wembanyama with the Spurs so that he'd be put in a good situation to develop and be successful.
That said, if I'm the league I'd be okay with franchises like Charlotte, Washington, Toronto and Utah getting guys like Ace Bailey and Kasparas Jakucionis.
The NBA is a TV product first and foremost. The league will probably want to send Cooper to a bigger TV market -- e.g., "See Cooper Flagg and the Brooklyn Nets take on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on ABC!"
I'm expecting the Jazz to end up with Kasparas, Tre Johnson or Fears, essentially a top-6 pick.