Jazz Suns trade

[homeytennis]

I think Ainge and JZ have realized that there are as good or better players mucking around overseas or in the GLeague than a late first round pick. There are obvious exceptions like the Greek Freak and Joker. Might as well swing for the fences.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If the Suns were going to break up these new found assets in a reasonable way like splitting up the Beal deal into a few more sustainable parts... I'd be a little worried about what we did here. They are going yolo in the most yolo way ever. Its clear Ishbia doesn't think the world survives until 2028 lol.

 

[framer]

Overall I like that the Suns, Lakers, and Wolves picks are in the West. Because the one cast iron guarantee you can make, even 6 years out, is that the Western conference will be better than the East, pushing those picks downward.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

If the Suns were going to break up these new found assets in a reasonable way like splitting up the Beal deal into a few more sustainable parts... I'd be a little worried about what we did here. They are going yolo in the most yolo way ever. Its clear Ishbia doesn't think the world survives until 2028 lol.

yeah, my assumption here is that Phx is gunning for a good last squeeze out of the KD-Booker era. I don't think they've got some kind of long-term/recovery plan.

 

[bigmike]

If the perceived value of the Suns 2031 pick actually is sky-high around the league, I probably change my tune on this.

I do not, however, buy into any sort of "expected guarantee" that the Suns pick in 2031 will in fact be a top 3-5 pick. As others have pointed out, when teams don't own their own pick, they generally don't suck because there are always 4-6+ others who do own their pick and will intentionally suck by design (see: Utah Jazz, 2024-2025).

My hope is we continue the tank brigade through 2025-2026 and sell high on this pick via trade as soon as the Suns collapse appears imminent. That way we guarantee a high-impact asset back in return without rolling the dice on this pick proving to be of low to medium value in light of the dynamics outlined above.

 

[TheStormofWar]

I'm good with this. We need to consolidate assets at some point and odds are that pick is going to gain value as time passes and Suns suck more and more.

 

[gomretat]

Trade for talent, not for picks.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If the perceived value of the Suns 2031 pick actually is sky-high around the league, I probably change my tune on this.

I do not, however, buy into any sort of "expected guarantee" that the Suns pick in 2031 will in fact be a top 3-5 pick. As others have pointed out, when teams don't own their own pick, they generally don't suck because there are always 4-6+ others who do own their pick and will intentionally suck by design (see: Utah Jazz, 2024-2025).

My hope is we continue the tank brigade through 2025-2026 and sell high on this pick via trade as soon as the Suns collapse appears imminent. That way we guarantee a high-impact asset back in return without rolling the dice on this pick proving to be of low to medium value in light of the dynamics outlined above.

Jazz are basically punting on the Cavs pick in '25 and '27. This year, the Cavs pick will be #29 or #30. In a couple years, it will likely be in the mid-20s if both Mitchell and Mobley are on their roster. Jazz can't keep all of these picks anyway, so they're consolidating and trying to get value while they can.

That Suns pick in 2031 is a long, long way off in NBA terms. I think what the Jazz are doing is mainly shorting the value of the Cavs picks and their own pick in 2029, while giving themselves a roll of the dice with the Suns pick. It's a low-downside, high-upside play.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Trade for talent, not for picks.

And what talent are the Jazz going to be able to acquire with three late FRPs?

 

[idiot]

Beginning to wonder whether the Suns made the trade without any semi-firm thing lined up to follow up with.

Maybe they just calculated that the three picks will serve them better no matter what does or doesn't happen with Butler?

 

[homeytennis]

And what talent are the Jazz going to be able to acquire with three late FRPs?

The equivalent of Bazely, Luka S, Yurt7 and Kenny.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The equivalent of Bazely, Luka S, Yurt7 and Kenny.

Well, it looks like an expiring Olynyk and two years of Ochai's rookie deal were the return we received on our #29 pick last year. So maybe that's a starting point.

 

[Zombie]

Just out of curiosity here are top ten picks that have been made by teams using a different team's pick over the last ten years:

2014: 9 Vonleh via Detroit, 10 Payton via New Orleans
2015: 0
2016: 3 Brown via Brooklyn, 7 Murray via New York, 9 Poltl via Denver
2017: 1 Fultz via Brooklyn 3 Tatum via Sacramento, 5 Fox via Philly, 10 Collins via New Orleans
2018: 8 Sexton via Brooklyn, 10 Bridges via LA
2019: 0
2020: 0
2021: 7 Kuminga via Minnesota, 8 Wagner via Chicago
2022: 8 Dyson Daniels via LA
2023: 0
2024: 8 Rob Dillingham via Toronto

I don't know if this tells us much, but I did find it a little interesting!

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Beginning to wonder whether the Suns made the trade without any semi-firm thing lined up to follow up with.

Maybe they just calculated that the three picks will serve them better no matter what does or doesn't happen with Butler?

By holding the Jazz's picks in alternating years, the Suns now have the flexibility to move picks that were otherwise owed to Washington. But yeah, it's assumed that there's another deal coming. It might be a 4-team trade involving Bradley Beal going to the Bucks. It might involve Zach Lavine. It sounds like it's a complicated, multi-team thing.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

It really takes a special kind of nerve to be a fan of the 24-25 Jazz and scoff at the Suns – a club making big time win-now moves while spending a **** ton of money – for being "in purgatory" or "NBA hell".

If that's purgatory... I'll have some of it, please.

So the Suns are not exactly planning seven years into the future like the galaxy brain Jazz FO. So what? The NBA moves fast. It's too chaotic. Who knows what's happening even two years from now?

Two years ago the Jazz were in the perfect position for a pivot. They had an All-Star coming into his prime, several promising young players, some steady vets, and an absolute treasure chest of assets for buying reinforcements. On top of that, the team was already beginning to win.

In that situation, you take one look at what you have and say "**** it we ball".

 

[NUMBERICA]

It really takes a special kind of nerve to be a fan of the 24-25 Jazz and scoff at the Suns – a club making big time win-now moves while spending a **** ton of money – for being "in purgatory" or "NBA hell".

If that's purgatory... I'll have some of it, please.

So the Suns are not exactly planning seven years into the future like the galaxy brain Jazz FO. So what? The NBA moves fast. It's too chaotic. Who knows what's happening even two years from now?

Two years ago the Jazz were in the perfect position for a pivot. They had an All-Star coming into his prime, several promising young players, some steady vets, and an absolute treasure chest of assets for buying reinforcements. On top of that, the team was already beginning to win.

In that situation, you take one look at what you have and say "**** it we ball".

Whatever, dude. The last time the Jazz made the playoffs, the Jazz were cliffed out on building/reloading in the immediate future and the product on the court was embarrassing.

I’ll take building patiently over a bloated team that hates each other 100% of the time.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is my biggest concern. The Suns obviously know exactly what we are trying to do, and they of course are going to try and implement a plan to ensure they are not terrible in 2031. They have a full 6 years to figure it out. They could easily try and compete for the next 2-3 seasons, and proceed to bottom out in 28' and 29', before being at least a middling team in 2031. Even if for some reason they fail on that front, as mentioned, they have no incentive to be bad in 31', and there will be at least 5-7 teams trying to lose as much as possible.

With that said, I think Danny is aware of all this and plans to trade the asset in the next couple of seasons in a package for a good player.

It seems that you don’t know that Phoenix in essence cannot tank because they do not own rights to ANY of their own picks for as far out as the league allows. The best they can do in terms of sustaining success is trying to get a haul trading someone but it (probably) won’t return their picks to them which is the only way that “bottoming out” is a strategy.

 

[baka98]

It really takes a special kind of nerve to be a fan of the 24-25 Jazz and scoff at the Suns – a club making big time win-now moves while spending a **** ton of money – for being "in purgatory" or "NBA hell".

If that's purgatory... I'll have some of it, please.

So the Suns are not exactly planning seven years into the future like the galaxy brain Jazz FO. So what? The NBA moves fast. It's too chaotic. Who knows what's happening even two years from now?

Two years ago the Jazz were in the perfect position for a pivot. They had an All-Star coming into his prime, several promising young players, some steady vets, and an absolute treasure chest of assets for buying reinforcements. On top of that, the team was already beginning to win.

In that situation, you take one look at what you have and say "**** it we ball".

Problem is we don't have the base that the Suns do to do something like that....

 

[baka98]

It seems that you don’t know that Phoenix in essence cannot tank because they do not own rights to ANY of their own picks for as far out as the league allows. The best they can do in terms of sustaining success is trying to get a haul trading someone but it (probably) won’t return their picks to them which is the only way that “bottoming out” is a strategy.

And gambling that those 3 picks will be good - which they won't because they will be at the bottom of the 1st round....

 

[baka98]

After thinking about this and wondering if I like this trade or not, I'm convinced it's the right move. We're taking the OKC approach and getting better value picks, at a time the Jazz should be a good team. I've decided I like it!