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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Some really strong NBA defenders are in the lower half of the wingspan percentiles. So I think I'd not use wingspan as a leading indicator for defensive potential, but just one of others.
Jimmy Butler has a neutral or even slightly negative wingspan.

Hasn't bothered him at all on either side of the ball because prime Jimmy was crazy athletic.
 
VJ physically looks like a shrunk down Jimmy Butler... no analysis... I just find myself wanting to compare him to Jimmy because of it...

I think Vecenie threw out Gary Harris for VJ as a comp which makes some sense pre-injuries for Harris. Somewhere between +Gary Harris and Oladipo? The shooting turnaround has been a great thing.
 
I just saw a statistic for Nolan Traore he has an almost 45% assist rate. The only person in the NBA with significant time that he compares to is Trae Young. That is insane for an 18-year-old kid playing with grown-ups. I am hoping for Traore with the Minny pick but I do not think he will fall that far.
 
With Ace its the BBIQ that worries me. It may not be bad but I think passing is an indicator there. If he is that kind of shot maker and his body fills out tho... I think you live with potentially bad BBIQ. He seems to play hard and have a motor. So does he have some Sexton vibes there... lovable but makes mistakes that drive control freak coaches crazy?

I'm in btw. I was skeptical when people were like "he's an elite shot maker" and then the percentages didn't line up. The percentages line up and the defense should be good simply with his activity and build.

Top 5 in this draft is super solid. I think Kas is the likely guy that falls to 5 because of his position.
 
Is VJ in your top 3 yet?

He should be. It's useless to resist.

The top 3 are going to be Flagg, Harper and Bailey. Then 4-6 will probably be Kasparas, VJ and Tre Johnson in some order based on how they measure out and the team that's drafting in those spots.

Maybe Newell or Maluach can crash that group if they have an amazing pre-draft process, but they're more likely to go in the 7-10 range.
 
I have also been doing research into Rocco Zacharsky and have liked him more and more. He comes from a swimming background with both of his parents either winning a medal or being in the Olympics. He was the top swimmer in his age group before playing basketball full-time. They also say that he has the potential to grow some more. He is a project at this point but flashes potential.
 
With Ace its the BBIQ that worries me. It may not be bad but I think passing is an indicator there. If he is that kind of shot maker and his body fills out tho... I think you live with potentially bad BBIQ. He seems to play hard and have a motor. So does he have some Sexton vibes there... lovable but makes mistakes that drive control freak coaches crazy?

I'm in btw. I was skeptical when people were like "he's an elite shot maker" and then the percentages didn't line up. The percentages line up and the defense should be good simply with his activity and build.

Top 5 in this draft is super solid. I think Kas is the likely guy that falls to 5 because of his position.

Even when he was struggling earlier in the year he was hitting 50% of his mid range which was a really high mark. I'm often skeptical when guys are labeled as tough shot makers when in reality all they do is just attempt them and make a couple for the highlight reel, but Ace was legitimately great all year at hitting shots....just terrible at getting to the more efficient was of scoring. Recently he's been much better at getting to and converting on the moreyball shots. Massive uptick in 3FG/FT attempts and percentage.

I think the concerns with Ace are very real, especially related to his overall basketball IQ. I will almost always prefer a player who creates premium shots for himself and teammates (like Harper), but Ace is legitimately awesome at hitting tough shots.
 
"Ace Bailey is 6'10" is such a weird hill to die on. I mean, just watch the kid. He's not even close. He's NBA small forward size.

But hey... forget what I think. Sports Illustrated has an opinion too.

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Until/unless it’s draft combine official with corresponding specificity (and reflective of full skeletal development which usually ends before year 19), I take all measurements with a rock of salt.

To be more specific: is the figure rounded (whereby half an inch becomes a full inch in declared size)? Is it without shoes (and how does this factor into our historic understanding of prior players based on shoes or without, and who did their measurements?)? Is it recorded during the morning or night (this can account for half an inch and different prospects measured at different times using - likely - different methods creates ambiguity), and, finally, are they almost-certainly skeletally developed at ages below 18 (almost certainly not).

Moreso than most prospects we have discussed since enactment of the NBA’s one-and-done policy, Ace’s measurements pre-college/G-League/etc can be reasonably suspected to be a work-in-progress. Since he is one of the youngest players in college basketball - having barely turned 18 when the season began - it seems absurd to me to be guffawing at the thought that 6’ 8” is sub-optimal in any universe or context.
 
I have also been doing research into Rocco Zacharsky and have liked him more and more. He comes from a swimming background with both of his parents either winning a medal or being in the Olympics. He was the top swimmer in his age group before playing basketball full-time. They also say that he has the potential to grow some more. He is a project at this point but flashes potential.

He has great hands, a high motor and runs the floor well. He should be effective. There's also some shooting touch to work with.
 
Some really strong NBA defenders are in the lower half of the wingspan percentiles. So I think I'd not use wingspan as a leading indicator for defensive potential, but just one of others.
Sure. It is, however, a critical measurement for players deemed undersized in the height dimension for their position (which VJ is). Weight/strength is probably even more important. Examples of players that were too short but excelled (having great length and strength) are Millsap, Draymond, Donovan, and Marcus Smart.

I can’t speak to the latter two measures of size regarding VJ yet.
 
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Jimmy Butler has a neutral or even slightly negative wingspan.

Hasn't bothered him at all on either side of the ball because prime Jimmy was crazy athletic.
Butler also has elite IQ and effort (when that’s there). Not sure he was ever crazy athletic. He was also upper-end height for a SF, so his wingspan in and of itself wasn’t a terrible obstacle.
 
I just saw a statistic for Nolan Traore he has an almost 45% assist rate. The only person in the NBA with significant time that he compares to is Trae Young. That is insane for an 18-year-old kid playing with grown-ups. I am hoping for Traore with the Minny pick but I do not think he will fall that far.
Or it means he's a ball dominant player who cant score and has to pass the ball...

45% assist rate doesnt really impress me when you have 33/28 shooting splits.

Just kind of gives more credence to him being another Killian Hayes.
 
i am coming around on Ace. my problems were he never passed and all of his shots seemed very difficult. a guy with a hand in his face. but it seems like his job is to score not pass and if he can make contested shots routinely then that is who he is i.e. a difficult shot maker. it also seems to me that he has worked himself into incredible shape. for me it flagg, bailey and everyone else.
 
Or it means he's a ball dominant player who cant score and has to pass the ball...

45% assist rate doesnt really impress me when you have 33/28 shooting splits.

Just kind of gives more credence to him being another Killian Hayes.
but looking at January things are really looking up for him. Over 6 games during competitions, he is 46/35/75
 
"Ace Bailey is 6'10" is such a weird hill to die on. I mean, just watch the kid. He's not even close. He's NBA small forward size.

But hey... forget what I think. Sports Illustrated has an opinion too.

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whether he's 6'10 or 6'8" - more likely he's 6'9" - he has elite size for a SG. but that's not how i concluded you are either stupid or have never seen him play, as none of us know how tall he is until the combine. saying he has zero bounce is just bonkers. hard to believe anybody could be that dumb. and the comment about his defense "can't guard" was almost as ignorant.
 
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Some examples of (at least potential or past) good/excellent defenders with average-to-below average wingspans (median measure for wingspan - height in NBA is 4.5": https://craftednba.com/player-traits/length):

Alex Sarr 4.5
Dyson Daniels 4.5
Josh Hart 4.5
Nick Claxton 4.5
Ivica Zubac 4.5
Andre Jackson 4.25
Jaylin Williams 4.25
Derrick White 4.25
Taylor Hendricks 4.25
Davion Mitchell 4.25
Aaron Gordon 4.25
Ronald Holland 4.25
Gary Harris 4.25
Patrick Williams 4
Grant Williams 4
Dante Exum 4
Jevon Carter 4
Walker Kessler 4
Giannis 4
Jrue Holiday 3.75
Lebron 3.75
Lonzo Ball 3.75
Quentin Grimes 3.75
Isaac Okoro 3.5
Jayson Tatum 3.5
Stephon Castle 3.5
Ben Simmons 3.5
Paul George 3.5
Klay Thompson 3.25
Jeremy Sochan 3.25
Yves Missi 3.25
Terance Mann 3
Chris Paul 3
Isaiah Hartenstein 2.75
Jabari Smith 2.5
Franz Wagner 2.5
Jonathan Isaac 2.5
Kyle Lowry 2.25
Alex Caruso 2
Jalen Suggs 2
Jose Alvarado 2
Jaden McDaniels 2
Anthony Black 1.75
Jimmy Butler 1.5
TJ McConnell 1.5
Kenrich Williams 1.25
Dillon Brooks 1
Brandon Clarke 1
Christian Braun 1
Jaylen Wells 0.75
 
The Ace Bailey nitpicking makes me chuckle. He's not Kevin Durant, but he's pretty damn good. I'd argue a notch more efficient than Brandon Miller was.

Kid seems to have an awesome attitude and plays really hard. I see no reason to suspect he cannot / will not learn how to better use his tools to create space at the next level. It's not an automatic transition for anyone.
 
whether he's 6'10 or 6'8" - more likely he's 6'9" - he has elite size for a SG. but that's not how i concluded you are either stupid or have never seen him play, as none of us know how tall he is until the combine. saying he has zero bounce is just bonkers. hard to believe anybody could be that dumb. and the comment about his defense "can't guard" was almost as ignorant.
I think he is a sf and he has ideal size for that position.
 
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