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2024-2025 Tank Race

idiot said:
They don't have to get into the top 4 in order to get a 5th or 6th post-lottery draft slot (if they finish 5th or 6th pre-lottery). It's only if they finish 7th pre-lotto that they can only keep their pick if they move up to 1-4 in the lotto.

But they have plenty of possibility (given the standings now) to finish with a 5th or 6th (or maybe even 4th in a highly unlikely situation), so they're not at all locked out from a 5th or 6th post-lotto outcome yet.
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See above
 
fishonjazz said:
Doesn't bottom 3 have the best odds at the number 1 pick?

Like finishing 5th worst has worse odds at Flagg than finishing 3rd worst, right?

I want the best odds possible at Flagg so finishing 3rd worst vs 5th worse definitely matters a lot to me.

Ending up with the 2nd pick vs the 5th pick doesn't really matter to me and I think that is actually what Cy was talking about.
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I think the point (at least for me) is that just saying "best odds" is not a good justification for then moving to "massive effects." The difference between best and 2nd best odds is not always "massive." And I'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where the difference is best labeled "small."
 
Jaanipoeg said:
1/2/3 is 14%
4 is 12.5%
5 is 10.5%

Always small odds, but if you're willing to spend a year being slimy than the 33% increase in odds for 3rd vs 5th is definitely meaningful

But yeah, I get it if he meant that he doesn't care about ending up with #2 vs #5 in actual draft picks. I am over the moon about Flagg
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I'd argue that this is the wrong way to see it.

The difference of 3.5% is the same whether it's 1% vs 4.5%, 76% vs 79.5%, or 10.5% vs. 14%. Having the odds go your way with just a 3.5% better chance is not nothing (and thus we're still tanking), but it's simply a small difference and is far more likely than not to NOT be the decisive factor in the ultimate results.
 
idiot said:
I think the point (at least for me) is that just saying "best odds" is not a good justification for then moving to "massive effects." The difference between best and 2nd best odds is not always "massive." And I'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where the difference is best labeled "small."
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I never argued anything about massive.
I simply said that it's significant enough for me to care whether we finish 2nd or 5th.
For me, there is a difference and it's significant enough that I really want to finish 2nd or 3rd much more than I want to finish 5th.
 
idiot said:
I'd argue that this is the wrong way to see it.

The difference of 3.5% is the same whether it's 1% vs 4.5%, 76% vs 79.5%, or 10.5% vs. 14%. Having the odds go your way with just a 3.5% better chance is not nothing (and thus we're still tanking), but it's simply a small difference and is far more likely than not to NOT be the decisive factor in the ultimate results.
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Yet it's still a large enough difference for me personally to feel much different about the outcome where we finish the season 2nd or 3rd worst vs finishing the season 5th worst.
 
fishonjazz said:
I never argued anything about massive.
I simply said that it's significant enough for me to care whether we finish 2nd or 5th.
For me, there is a difference and it's significant enough that I really want to finish 2nd or 3rd much more than I want to finish 5th.
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Yes, you didn't use "massive". Apologies if I implied that you did.

But the argument that we're both participating in started with a post that did use that term so I felt the issue was still in play.
 
Joel and Irving will be out all of next year too. The 76ers, Mavs, and Hornets will be heavy losers next season. It will be hard to out tank them
 
They finished the game with this lineup lol:

Orlando Robinson
AJ Lawson
Jared Rhoden
Jakobe Walter
Jamal Shead

I ain't complaining bc the Jazz have been doing more of this crap, but the NBA is clearly a joke of a league.
 
KqWIN said:
They finished the game with this lineup lol:

Orlando Robinson
AJ Lawson
Jared Rhoden
Jakobe Walter
Jamal Shead

I ain't complaining bc the Jazz have been doing more of this crap, but the NBA is clearly a joke of a league.
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They made a run when that lineup started playing. I think the coach just ran with it.
 
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