Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Tre is in an altogether different tier from Sensabaugh and even Keyonte. He's a true scorer and three-level guy.

This is the exact narrative I don't get. Brice sored more per minute on better shooting splits than Tre. So how is he in a different tier as a scorer.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Is that why they call me "the Tuna Can?"

Nah that's cuz your junk smells fishy.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

There's one other way to think about Edgecombe and that's whether he can be your on-ball guard at the 1. He hasn't been super sophisticated off the dribble or as a passer thusfar, but it's possible that he doesn't need to be. If you look at what Ja Morant does, for example, Ja basically starts at the top of the circle and either drives straight at the rim, takes an open jumper, or makes a fairly straightforward pass. Maybe Edgecombe can take some on-ball reps where he does something similar. He drives to put pressure on the rim and he either makes a big finish or a basic pass to another secondary creator. In other words, all he really needs to do is make the defense collapse on him.

 

[jom2003]

No comparison is perfect, Devin Booker also gets to the line a ton. He basically shoots at the rim and free throw line at the same rate as Thomas. In fact, Booker and Thomas have near identical shot distributions, but the point isn't to make mountains out of molehills. The comparison to Cam Thomas is one to say that Tre could be one of the better scorers in the league but he will likely struggle on defense and will have to improve as a playmaker. The more he improves his defense and playmaking the more you can consider him to be like a Herro or Booker. But there would be very few players who I'd say that would be the baseline expectation.

Exactly my point though. Booker's added about 20lbs of muscle and even grown an inch or two since entering the league. That's how he figured things out and became an all-star. No way he gets to where he is now had him kept his shape from college. The man dropped all the way to 13th in the draft for a reason. We won't even be having this conversation if we are considering Tre in that range. But no he's being considered for a top 5 pick so of course we will have to raise the bar and expect him to work on his body.

As for Cam, I believe his body was ready for the NBA from day one. The shot making wasn't quite there but his strength and physicality was always there. That's why I liked the Booker comparison a bit more as both needed to add more weight to their body.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

This is the exact narrative I don't get. Brice sored more per minute on better shooting splits than Tre. So how is he in a different tier as a scorer.

Because Brice's college game isn't fully translating to NBA speed and physicality. Brice's isolations get stifled by NBA defenders and often result in turnovers. Brice also isn't really a great movement shooter. Brice is a great catch-and-shoot player though. He's money from the corners and really good above the break. He's a bit like Bojan Bogdanovic.

Tre is a better shooter off movement and off balance. He plays faster. He creates off the dribble better. He's well suited to the NBA.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Which is what I've been saying. Tre needs to get stronger

There's nothing about his frame where I question if he will be able to.

 

[jom2003]

No comparison is perfect, Devin Booker also gets to the line a ton. He basically shoots at the rim and free throw line at the same rate as Thomas. In fact, Booker and Thomas have near identical shot distributions, but the point isn't to make mountains out of molehills. The comparison to Cam Thomas is one to say that Tre could be one of the better scorers in the league but he will likely struggle on defense and will have to improve as a playmaker. The more he improves his defense and playmaking the more you can consider him to be like a Herro or Booker. But there would be very few players who I'd say that would be the baseline expectation.

And shot distributions don't mean much in the money ball era I'm afraid. Everyone knows it's all about shots at the rim and the three ball nowadays. The fact the two players have similar shooting charts doesn't make them the same type of player. Just have to watch the game to see the difference.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Because Brice's college game isn't fully translating to NBA speed and physicality. Brice's isolations get stifled by NBA defenders and often result in turnovers. Brice also isn't really a great movement shooter. Brice is a great catch-and-shoot player though. He's money from the corners and really good above the break.

Tre is a better shooter off movement and off balance. He plays faster. He creates off the dribble better. He's well suited to the NBA.

Okay. I don't think their games are all that different. I think Tre is faster when he does it which may give him an advantage obviously... but we may also find out the same thing we did with Brice... their games don't translate perfectly. I also think its funny when folks are convinced prospect A is better than prospect B when their numbers are basically identical. It feels like cuz prospect A is the new shiny toy he can be anything but that anything will definitely be better than prospect B.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This is the type of guy that hits in the late teens 20s. We have collected so many players in the 6th man archetype that it doesn't make sense, but I discounted McCain last year because of fit. Jase is a guy I have my eye on to be the Maxey/McCain/Quickley/Simons/Key?/Collier? type guy that is under drafted because of perceived player type.

I should’ve added that I like Richardson but, yeah, don’t need another one of them cats here.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Honestly Ive been watching more Jase lately and I dont think it's crazy to think he's better than Kasparas.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

Okay. I don't think their games are all that different. I think Tre is faster when he does it which may give him an advantage obviously... but we may also find out the same thing we did with Brice... their games don't translate perfectly. I also think its funny when folks are convinced prospect A is better than prospect B when their numbers are basically identical. It feels like cuz prospect A is the new shiny toy he can be anything but that anything will definitely be better than prospect B.

I get what you're saying, 100%. But I do think that Tre moves so differently that the numbers-based comparisons between him and Brice need to be approached with caution.

(BTW, I'm a Brice Believer and I hope we end up with someone above Tre).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Biw-gpBpenY&ab_channel=Swish


The play starting at 1:52 is kind of what made me rethink Richardson. That's a star move.

Think he's just a victim of playing on a team that has a lot of guards so he doesnt get to create as much as he could. His touch is pretty unreal.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

There's one other way to think about Edgecombe and that's whether he can be your on-ball guard at the 1. He hasn't been super sophisticated off the dribble or as a passer thusfar, but it's possible that he doesn't need to be. If you look at what Ja Morant does, for example, Ja basically starts at the top of the circle and either drives straight at the rim, takes an open jumper, or makes a fairly straightforward pass. Maybe Edgecombe can take some on-ball reps where he does something similar. He drives to put pressure on the rim and he either makes a big finish or a basic pass to another secondary creator. In other words, all he really needs to do is make the defense collapse on him.

No thanks. I wouldn't project him to be a positive in that role until his 3rd year or later (if ever). He looks like a good secondary creator. Let someone else create the initial advantage.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Okay. I don't think their games are all that different. I think Tre is faster when he does it which may give him an advantage obviously... but we may also find out the same thing we did with Brice... their games don't translate perfectly. I also think its funny when folks are convinced prospect A is better than prospect B when their numbers are basically identical. It feels like cuz prospect A is the new shiny toy he can be anything but that anything will definitely be better than prospect B.

The more I fuss around with trying to figure out how good college players will be in the NBA, the more I realize just how different college and the NBA are. To put it bluntly, Tre Johnson is a better NBA athlete than Brice Sensabaugh is. Brice is barely athletic enough to play at this level. I'd expect this to become more clear during the Combine testing.

Put Brice on the same floor as Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe, and Brice can't do much besides taking open catch-and-shoot jumpers. Brice has already put in good work to improve his body, but he still looks slow compared to guys like Svi and Juzang.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I get what you're saying, 100%. But I do think that Tre moves so differently that the numbers-based comparisons between him and Brice need to be approached with caution.

(BTW, I'm a Brice Believer and I hope we end up with someone above Tre).

I agree. I think Tre is a better prospect. I have seen Brice's style of creating space work this season and I think they are likely similar shooting prospects. I think he tries harder.

I do think there are benefits to both "styles" and maybe its the behind the scenes stuff with Brice that lands him in the doghouse.

 

[KqWIN]

And shot distributions don't mean much in the money ball era I'm afraid. Everyone knows it's all about shots at the rim and the three ball nowadays. The fact the two players have similar shooting charts doesn't make them the same type of player. Just have to watch the game to see the difference.

Shot distributions mean everything when you're specifically talking about the types of shots they take. If you want to be picky about comparisons, you will never find a comparison and thus it is pointless to talk about to begin with. Don't care to about the tiny details when the overall point is the same so we can just end it right there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The more I fuss around with trying to figure out how good college players will be in the NBA, the more I realize just how different college and the NBA are. To put it bluntly, Tre Johnson is a better NBA athlete than Brice Sensabaugh is. Brice is barely athletic enough to play at this level. I'd expect this to become more clear during the Combine testing.

Put Brice on the same floor as Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe, and Brice can't do much besides taking open catch-and-shoot jumpers.

I mean Tre likely gonna struggle with that group too lol. I think he's a better athlete... but how is he using that because his activity numbers are worse than Brice's in college. He isn't getting to better/easier shots at the college level.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Another thing on Jase, he has elite FT shooting %'s. That combined with the unreal touch, I think you could talk yourself into projecting him as a very talented offensive player. I could see him, like a Devin Booker, really leveling up when you give him more responsibility.

 

[KqWIN]

I think its VJ's reported personality. I think being serious or a pro might be part of what his issue is with Brice. IDK. Hardy just seems to be a hardass sometimes but I can't figure out if there is a common quality. He and Walker kinda had their issues. Collin got yanked around with his PT a little. Brice stuff... there were also reports of the Jazz not liking Collins slowness to pick up the schemes or whatever... When you are drafting as high as we are then it obviously isn't the biggest concern but if things are equal maybe some of those things are the items that tip the scale?

I'd put Hardy's preferences in the bin of "do not really care". The first reason being that there really isn't a big pattern, but if you do find a pattern....I don't think those things are necessarily good. If I had to describe any pattern it certainly wouldn't be tilted towards high effort, defensive players. To be honest, I think Hardy would be on the very low end of the hardass/defense/effort first coach rankings. Like I said earlier, players with comically bad effort/defense have made his good list. So when thinking about VJ's or any other players personality I don't really consider Hardy's personal preferences and instead just think about them in a general sense. I hope we draft players with better mentalities and habits and that's the case regardless of who the coach is.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I mean Tre likely gonna struggle with that group too lol. I think he's a better athlete... but how is he using that because his activity numbers are worse than Brice's in college. He isn't getting to better/easier shots at the college level.

I tend to go by the eye test and then use stats to look for evidence to confirm my biases. I wouldn't draw too many definitive conclusions based on college stats alone. Tre is having to create shots under pressure all over the floor against SEC defenders. I don't think it's the same experience that Brice had at Ohio State. FT shooting is often a better apples-to-apples comparison of shooting ability between players, and Tre is shooting just over 88% at the line.

My point is that Brice isn't playing at today's NBA speed, and he's not creating against high-caliber NBA athletes. I don't want to overstate it--that last game against Detroit was a complete write-off, but the difference in athleticism between some of the Pistons' players and ours got pretty stark. Brice was 0-for-5 from the floor and had 5 turnovers in 16 minutes. It was pretty obvious he was uncomfortable.