Solving For Tanking, We're smart, let's figure it out

[NUMBERICA]

They could go back to the original lottery which would eliminate blatantly tanking for the worst record.

For the 1,000,000th time, that would create a scenario where teams on the margins of making the playoffs tank out of making the playoffs. We already see this on occasion, making that change would shift that phenomenon into overdrive and just shift tanking from the bottom of the league to legitimately competitive teams which is not better. Worse, it actively un-evens the playing field.

The notion that this is a simple fix is stunningly small-minded.

 

[JimLes]

For the 1,000,000th time, that would create a scenario where teams on the margins of making the playoffs tank out of making the playoffs. We already see this on occasion, making that change would shift that phenomenon into overdrive and just shift tanking from the bottom of the league to legitimately competitive teams which is not better. Worse, it actively un-evens the playing field.

I really don't think the one years Dallas maybe did this would suddenly lead to what would otherwise be 45-50 win teams tanking the last dozen games for a 7% chance at a top pick. Maybe I'm overly naïve here.

Also, regardless of whether the lottery is changed or not, I would love to see it restricted to the 10 teams that didn't make the playin or the playoffs.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I really don't think the one years Dallas maybe did this would suddenly lead to what would otherwise be 45-50 win teams tanking the last dozen games for a 7% chance at a top pick. Maybe I'm overly naïve here.

Also, regardless of whether the lottery is changed or not, I would love to see it restricted to the 10 teams that didn't make the playin or the playoffs.

Dallas absolutely did that (they got fined for admitting it) and Chicago is trying it right now.

I would advocate for the Jazz tanking if they were fighting to be the 8th seed, too. No chance at a title vs a 21% chance at top-3 is a no-brainer.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

****** team draft is still the ticket.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

For the 1,000,000th time, that would create a scenario where teams on the margins of making the playoffs tank out of making the playoffs. We already see this on occasion, making that change would shift that phenomenon into overdrive and just shift tanking from the bottom of the league to legitimately competitive teams which is not better. Worse, it actively un-evens the playing field.

The notion that this is a simple fix is stunningly small-minded.

There is zero fix that involves the lottery.

 

[slc]

There is zero fix that involves the lottery.

How about this
Any current draft order should be based on a teams record from two years ago
So no team is tanking for upcoming draft
No team knows who will be available in two years

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

How about this
Any current draft order should be based on a teams record from two years ago
So no team is tanking for upcoming draft
No team knows who will be available in two years

No, that would be ridiculous.

Just do The Wheel.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Best and most realistic fix is if you have moved up in the lottery the last 2 years you can’t move up again so no top-4 pick. If you are 1-4 you are taken out of the lottery balls.

If you haven’t moved up your odds increase the following year depending on what spot you were at previously.

For example, the Spurs and Hornets wouldn’t be able to move up this year. We would have extra good odds because we didn’t move up the last two years.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

I solved this and send my proposition to NBA. I proposed rewards for winning. Your ranking in the lottery is based on the percentual increase of wins compared to previous season.

You also set some kind of a bottom, from where you can start counting, to prevent anyone to tank to like 10 wins to get easier high percentual increase for winning. The average wins for worst teams past ten seasons is around 16-17 and it involves some blatant tankers. Id suggest the bottom line to at that, from where you start counting. When you increase wins, you keep rewarded.

In this model, I'd like to see also bottom three teams to be guaranteed 5-7% change for the 1st pick, in case you just happen to had bad luck and got worse by injuries. Keep it low enough to probably have better chances to just improving your win column. (In this model it's easiest in the bottom of the table to start improving.)

The additional thing could be to add some sort of bonus for the lowest payroll. That would incentivize player and organization development.

Another additional note is, if your team is in the lottery land, and already has under 30 years old top 5 player in MVP voting, your odds for 1st pick are automatically something like 0,5% at most, no matter how much you improved your winning record in the bottom 14, and also their top 3 pick chances are halved - in both situations the residual percentages will be evenly shared to every other lottery team.

If you have a youngish top 5 MVP candidate, you don't never ever need to have realistic chances for the 1st pick. Well give you a miniscule chance though, keep fingers crossed.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No, that would be ridiculous.

Just do The Wheel.

They will never do the wheel. It’s a 30 year commitment.

 

[Tanktastic]

Best and most realistic fix is if you have moved up in the lottery the last 2 years you can’t move up again so no top-4 pick. If you are 1-4 you are taken out of the lottery balls.

This is just playing around the edges without fixing the problem. Just mitigating it in some random scenarios.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

They will never do the wheel. It’s a 30 year commitment.

Yeah, I know the NBA won't doing anything radically smart

 

[cmrd]

I like the wheel, but see one possible backfire in that it could lead to elite prospects strategically declaring in order to land in bigger markets, etc. For instance, if it was known that this year number one is Charlotte’s selection, while next year will be the Lakers then Miami, I could see a scenario where multiple top end prospects return to school.

One possible circumvention: do the wheel format, but structured with groups of five teams. There is an internal lottery within each group, not tied to season record. So, one year you get a lottery for 1-5, the next maybe 20-25, and so on.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I like the wheel, but see one possible backfire in that it could lead to elite prospects strategically declaring in order to land in bigger markets, etc. For instance, if it was known that this year number one is Charlotte’s selection, while next year will be the Lakers then Miami, I could see a scenario where multiple top end prospects return to school.

One possible circumvention: do the wheel format, but structured with groups of five teams. There is an internal lottery within each group, not tied to season record. So, one year you get a lottery for 1-5, the next maybe 20-25, and so on.

Would Flagg opt out of a draft if the next draft Boozer/Peterson/Dybantsa could overtake him for that theoretical big market team? Doesnt seem likely.

 

[cmrd]

Would Flagg opt out of a draft if the next draft Boozer/Peterson/Dybantsa could overtake him for that theoretical big market team? Doesnt seem likely.

Very possible it’s a solution to a non-existing problem. What about the Wemby year?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Very possible it’s a solution to a non-existing problem. What about the Wemby year?

I just highly doubt any #1 pick is going to forgo a year of being paid 13 million dollars to go to the Lakers the next year when there is no guarantee he would be the pick.

 

[Shad]

Would Flagg opt out of a draft if the next draft Boozer/Peterson/Dybantsa could overtake him for that theoretical big market team? Doesnt seem likely.

They absolutely would now with NIL money. When you're getting 7 million from NIL, what's getting another 7 million and going back to Duke to get the Celtics, Knicks, or Lakers the following year?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

They absolutely would now with NIL money. When you're getting 7 million from NIL, what's getting another 7 million and going back to Duke to get the Celtics, Knicks, or Lakers the following year?

And what if they arent the pick and they become the 2nd pick to the Kings? And that's still leaving a ton of money on the table and not getting to your 2nd contract as quickly. Its nonsense.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, players can opt out of the draft after the draft lottery. The ability to not get drafted by a team who gets #1 already exist.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

The only way to fix tanking and do away with it is to do away with the need for tanking, which means you put every team in the lottery with equal odds of winning the number one pick regardless of what that team‘s record is. It’s literally the only way there are no quick fixes other than that. It doesn’t matter about fair play all that matters is the product and that star players play a full season.