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2024-2025 Tank Race

Douchebag K said:
Wizards wtf Never in my wildest dreams did i think we'd actually go so low as to get the actual worst record So what's the lowest the worst team can fall in the lottery, 4th, 5th ??
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Maybe it's more accurate (or psychologically better) to think of things as rising in the lottery rather than falling.

Our base pick is 5th (if things hold the rest of the way). That's the most likely single outcome.

The lottery is a chance to rise beyond that. If the lottery ball falls for us, we rise. Otherwise, we stay at 5.
 
idiot said:
Maybe it's more accurate (or psychologically better) to think of things as rising in the lottery rather than falling.

Our base pick is 5th (if things hold the rest of the way). That's the most likely single outcome.

The lottery is a chance to rise beyond that. If the lottery ball falls for us, we rise. Otherwise, we stay at 5.
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I like it.
This is a glass half full silver linings way to look at it.
 
idiot said:
Maybe it's more accurate (or psychologically better) to think of things as rising in the lottery rather than falling.

Our base pick is 5th (if things hold the rest of the way). That's the most likely single outcome.

The lottery is a chance to rise beyond that. If the lottery ball falls for us, we rise. Otherwise, we stay at 5.
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So are fourth and above all ‘lottery’ slots and we got a 15% shot at each as they come up (minus the virtual balls of teams already off the board, so technically better than 15% and increasing each round we slide) and then at 5 it reverts to record order of the teams remaining?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
No one is out tanking the Jazz as it currently stands. Rest easy
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Collins re-evaluated in a week or something... Lauri got an MRI. They just have to manage Walker/Sexton if things get frisky rn. I thought we'd win one more this year but after Wiz won we will lose out.
 
JazzFever said:
So are fourth and above all ‘lottery’ slots and we got a 15% shot at each as they come up (minus the virtual balls of teams already off the board, so technically better than 15% and increasing each round we slide) and then at 5 it reverts to record order of the teams remaining?
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Yes (except 14%, rather than 15%).
 
How come no one is talking about the OKC game? That is much scarier than the Blazers. They will absolutely rest all of their guys and it is at home.
 
kcgar said:
How come no one is talking about the OKC game? That is much scarier than the Blazers. They will absolutely rest all of their guys and it is at home.
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Because OKC is really good. Even if they rest all their stars/starters, they should be us with their B team starting C team off the bench.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Because OKC is really good. Even if they rest all their stars/starters, they should be us with their B team starting C team off the bench.
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OKC also has a possibility for 70 wins and will also have almost a week off after the regular season. They've also already locked up the 1 seed and are still playing all of their guys.
 
Hypothetically, whoever the Jazz draft turns out to be a top 15 player at the end of their second season. You are the Jazz GM and are tasked with putting together a championship run over the remaining rookie pay deal. What would you do? How successful do you think that team would be? Lots of love from an English Jazz fan.
 
alano0031 said:
Hypothetically, whoever the Jazz draft turns out to be a top 15 player at the end of their second season. You are the Jazz GM and are tasked with putting together a championship run over the remaining rookie pay deal. What would you do? How successful do you think that team would be? Lots of love from an English Jazz fan.
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We have a lot of expiring contracts, so free agency is in play by then. We also have a lot of young guys and picks, so trades are in scope as well.

The FO would have a ton of options.

(Is this what you are looking for, or are you hoping for a more detailed/specific plan?)
 
SoberasHotRod said:
We have a lot of expiring contracts, so free agency is in play by then. We also have a lot of young guys and picks, so trades are in scope as well.

The FO would have a ton of options.

(Is this what you are looking for, or are you hoping for a more detailed/specific plan?)
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I'd love to hear people's specific plans. What I laid out is everyone's dreams after this season of tanking. Obviously people are expecting Flagg to be the most likely draftee to be that player but it could be someone else.

Also as you said Utah have lots of options with regard to expanding the available talent. Whether that is through free agency (Not traditionally one of Utah's strengths) or through using the picks for trading purposes.
 
alano0031 said:
I'd love to hear people's specific plans. What I laid out is everyone's dreams after this season of tanking. Obviously people are expecting Flagg to be the most likely draftee to be that player but it could be someone else.

Also as you said Utah have lots of options with regard to expanding the available talent. Whether that is through free agency (Not traditionally one of Utah's strengths) or through using the picks for trading purposes.
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Have you seen this thread:

SoberasHotRod

Thread 'Looking ahead to 2025-2026'

This has been discussed a little bit already, but I think it's an interesting topic and wanted to see how the board is generally feeling. If we get Flagg in the draft, or whoever you think we should get with the first pick, what should the Jazz do then?

Let's pretend that we have traded away one of Collins or Sexton at the deadline, we land Flagg in the draft, we owe a top 8 protected pick to OKC in the 2026 draft that looks very strong, our young guys are making slow, but steady progress. We will likely have a bunch of expiring contracts. How should the FO approach the rest of the off...
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SoberasHotRod said:
Have you seen this thread:

SoberasHotRod

Thread 'Looking ahead to 2025-2026'

This has been discussed a little bit already, but I think it's an interesting topic and wanted to see how the board is generally feeling. If we get Flagg in the draft, or whoever you think we should get with the first pick, what should the Jazz do then?

Let's pretend that we have traded away one of Collins or Sexton at the deadline, we land Flagg in the draft, we owe a top 8 protected pick to OKC in the 2026 draft that looks very strong, our young guys are making slow, but steady progress. We will likely have a bunch of expiring contracts. How should the FO approach the rest of the off...
  • Like
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No, thank you. I'll give it a read.
 
Don't know where else to put it, but Locke dropping some truth bombs (imo) the last couple days on his show:
  • Jazz have done a masterful job tanking this year
  • The tanking (or bottom-5 finish, as he prefers) model works almost all of the time, but only if your expectations are to build a playoff team, and only if you commit to 3+ years
  • There is no model for building a championship team
  • It's quite rare to have someone you drafted after tanking lead you to a championship, and it hasn't happened for many years
  • There's a real conversation to be had about whether tanking is a better long-term team strategy (since it's not a reliable path to championships) than just trying to keep your team at as high a level as possible
  • Flagg is legitimately a highly ranked prospect and there should be high hopes for him, but several somewhat-recent prospects that had higher expectations at draft time either didn't work out well, or didn't quite turn out to be what was hoped for them
  • It looks like a 2-player draft. We're not really likely to get anywhere (beyond getting a solid rotation player -- a Jabari Smith type) from this year's tank if we don't end up with one of them
 
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idiot said:
Don't know where else to put it, but Locke dropping some truth bombs (imo) the last couple days on his show:
  • Jazz have done a masterful job tanking this year
  • The tanking (or bottom-5 finish, as he prefers) model works almost all of the time, but only if your expectations are to build a playoff team, and only if you commit to 3+ years
  • There is no model for building a championship team
  • It's quite rare to have someone you drafted after tanking lead you to a championship, and it hasn't happened for many years
  • There's a real conversation to be had about whether tanking is a better long-term team strategy (since it's not a reliable path to championships) than just trying to keep your team at as high a level as possible
  • Flagg is legitimately a highly ranked prospect and there should be high hopes for him, but several somewhat-recent prospects that had higher expectations at draft time either didn't work out well, or didn't quite turn out to be what was hoped for them
  • It looks like a 2-player draft. We're not really likely to get anywhere (beyond getting a solid rotation player -- a Jabari Smith type) from this year's tank if we don't end up with one of them
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I think Flagg and Harper are potential franchise-defining players. But I'd say that Ace Bailey and Tre Johnson have clear All Star potential and are markedly more than just rotation players. Ace Bailey has a higher ceiling than some of the players he's getting comped to--e.g., Jabari Smith, MPJ, Rashard Lewis, etc.

Derik Queen is interesting too. He's an advantage creator, and it's possible to build an offense around him. Jazz would need to re-shuffle their frontcourt strategy.
 
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