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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

It's looking like the Twolves pick is going to come in at 20-23, and it will depend on coin-flips.

Unless someone unexpected falls, I'd be looking at Fleming or one of the European prospects--e.g., Essengue, Beringer, de Larrea or Sarr (whom I think should enter the draft). I'd also take a look at Nolan Traore, in case he's there. Jazz should also probably look at Hugo Gonzalez.

I'm not a Penda guy or a Demin guy, but one or both of those guys will probably be available in that range.
 
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Would u rather secure a second lottery pick and lower the floor on your top pick odds or get top odds and miss the second lotto pick?
 
Coach Ellis said:
If Sarr does declare, where would he likely project in the draft?
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I think he would probably be above Hugo. He plays in the same competitions, but he's shown more flashes....That's not saying much, however, because Hugo hasn't really shown any flashes. Both guys have very little game time this year, but Sarr did recently have 4 double digit scoring games in a row across ACB and Euroleague.

I feel like he will only stay in this draft if he has a first round guarantee, otherwise he will be playing for Illinois. I think he will end up getting that guarantee with a good Hoop Summit and so many teams with multiple picks in the late first round.
 
Elizah Huge said:
2nd best odds and second lottery pick without a doubt
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I'm calculating that if the Jazz win tomorrow, their odds of this turning into a top four pick are about 1 in 218 (0.46%) -- based on a rough estimate of 45% chance of Wolves losing first play-in game, and 30% chance of losing second play-in game. (Of course your scenario--a Jazz win--also means that pick has around a 13% chance of turning into the 14th pick)
 
Some fun Dylan Harper stats:

- 80% of his made field goals were unassisted
- Took over 8 attempts at the rim per game
- Shot 68% at the rim
- 22 steals in his last 10 games of the season
- Shot 50% on unguarded C&S threes

Harper is my favorite player in the draft class. Flagg is obviously the better prospect and player but I watched more Rutgers than any other team this year and fell in love with Dylan.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Some fun Dylan Harper stats:

- 80% of his made field goals were unassisted
- Took over 8 attempts at the rim per game
- Shot 68% at the rim
- 22 steals in his last 10 games of the season
- Shot 50% on unguarded C&S threes

Harper is my favorite player in the draft class. Flagg is obviously the better prospect and player but I watched more Rutgers than any other team this year and fell in love with Dylan.
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Good stuff. I was just about to pull is a highlight video of him to watch to so good timing for me to read this
 
Some good statistical info about Ace Bailey:

• +16.0 net rating
• 60.9% on floaters/runners
• 0.73 PPP off the dribble
• 0.77 PPP in isolation
• 1.4 PPP as a cutter
• 38.7% catch and shoot 3’s
• 1.05 PPP off screens
• 40.7% on screen threes
• 8.3 AST % is 2nd lowest from lottery pick since 2020 (Jordan Hawkins)
• 63.7% at rim with 26 dunks
• 23% of shots at rim
• 41.2% from 3 first 19 games
 
Some good statistical info about VJ Edgecombe:

• 56.3% in transition
• 1.14 PPP in transition
• 10+ BPM club as a freshman (only 27 total)
• 97th percentile in combined STL% and BLK %
• 36.3% on catch and shoot 3’s
• 39.1% from three in conference play
• 47.6% off screens from 3 (21 attempts)
• 46.9% on floaters/runners
• 75% as cutter (12 attempts)
• 7.1% OREB (high for a guard his size)
• 44.5% on layups
• 53.8% at rim
• 78.6% opponent FG% in post-ups
 
Eventually I will probably make a separate post for this, but I've been looking into second tier prospect level guys who became star level players. So mostly guys in the the 3-8 range who were good prospects, but not elite prospects. I'm looking at 1) why they weren't considered elite 2) what was the case to be made for them being high potential at the time 3) what has changed that has allowed them to become a star.

Some quick, general observations I'm seeing:

- There are a lot of guards here, and a lot of guards who weren't amazing physically. Elite skill seems to matter more than elite physical attributes for guards.
- For wings, you can pretty much consider all of them plus athletes and some elite. Pretty rare for an unathletic wing to be drafted this high though. They need to be skilled, but not necessarily great shooters.
- Lot of players with smaller roles in college than in the NBA. You CAN increase your role in the NBA with development.
- Lot of of guys who were considered unknown's for one reason or another in this range
- Shooting, whether it was expected or not, is the most common trait.


Might look at the busts afterwards.
 
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KqWIN said:
Eventually I will probably make a separate post for this, but I've been looking into second tier prospect level guys who became star level players. So mostly guys in the the 3-8 range who were good prospects, but not elite prospects. I'm looking at 1) why they weren't considered elite 2) what was the case to be made for them being high potential at the time 3) what has changed that has allowed them to become a star.

Some quick, general observations I'm seeing:

- There are a lot of guards here, and a lot of guards who weren't amazing physically. Elite skill seems to matter more than elite physical attributes for guards.
- For wings, you can pretty much consider all of them plus athletes and some elite. Pretty rare for an unathletic wing to be drafted this high though.
- Lot of players with smaller roles in college than in the NBA. You CAN increase your role in the NBA with development.
- Lot of of guys who were considered unknown's for one reason or another in this range
- Shooting, whether it was expected or not, is the most common trait.


Might look at the busts afterwards.
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I would be interested in seeing more details, specifically the list of names you are diving deep on.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I would be interested in seeing more details, specifically the list of names you are diving deep on.
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The idea is to look at use cases that would be relevant when drafting from 3-5, which I would consider to be great prospects, but not elite prospects and not prospects that would normally be considered a #1 caliber. Here is the list of guys I'm looking at, I understand it's somewhat subjective to determine who is and isn't included.

2023 - Amen - 4
2023 - Ausar - 5
2021 - Barnes - 4
2021 - Wagner - 8
2020 - Ball - 3
2019 - Garland - 5
2018 - Jackson - 4
2018 - Young - 5
2017 - Tatum - 3
2017 - Fox - 5
2017 - Markannen - 7
2016 - Brown - 3
2016 - Murray - 7
2015 - Porzingis - 4
2014 - Randle - 7
 
I've become very slightly more interested in drafting Beringer with the Minnesota pick. Basically I was looking at the 2026 draft and realized that there are not really any centers that I'm very interested in drafting. Cenac is supposed to be good, but I haven't seen him look very good yet.

I'm still not there, but I'm now more open to the possibility and might talk myself in to it by the time of the draft.
 
KqWIN said:
The idea is to look at use cases that would be relevant when drafting from 3-5, which I would consider to be great prospects, but not elite prospects and not prospects that would normally be considered a #1 caliber. Here is the list of guys I'm looking at, I understand it's somewhat subjective to determine who is and isn't included.

2023 - Amen - 4
2023 - Ausar - 5
2021 - Barnes - 4
2021 - Wagner - 8
2020 - Ball - 3
2019 - Garland - 5
2018 - Jackson - 4
2018 - Young - 5
2017 - Tatum - 3
2017 - Fox - 5
2017 - Markannen - 7
2016 - Brown - 3
2016 - Murray - 7
2015 - Porzingis - 4
2014 - Randle - 7
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Got it. Yeah, I think you need to do a comparison of guys drafted in this range that are busts as well.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Got it. Yeah, I think you need to do a comparison of guys drafted in this range that are busts as well.
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Just a quick scan (not doing anyone in the last 3 drafts). Players drafted in top 5 are bolded:

Guys who struggled to stay in a rotation:

2020 - Wiseman
2020 - K.Hayes
2019 - Culver
2019 - J.Hayes
2018 - Bamba
2017 - Jackson
2017 - Nkilikina
2016 - Bender
2016 - Dunn
2016 - Chriss
2015 - Okafor
2015 - Hezonja
2015 - WCS
2015 - Mudiay
2015 - Johnson
2014 - Exum


Guys who did not become starter level:

2020 - Williams
2020 - Okoro
2020 - Toppin
2017 - Issac
 
KqWIN said:
Just a quick scan (not doing anyone in the last 3 drafts). Players drafted in top 5 are bolded:

Guys who struggled to stay in a rotation:

2020 - Wiseman
2020 - K.Hayes
2019 - Culver
2019 - J.Hayes
2018 - Bamba
2017 - Jackson
2017 - Nkilikina
2016 - Bender
2016 - Dunn
2016 - Chriss
2015 - Okafor
2015 - Hezonja
2015 - WCS
2015 - Mudiay
2015 - Johnson
2014 - Exum


Guys who did not become starter level:

2020 - Williams
2020 - Okoro
2020 - Toppin
2017 - Issac
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A lot of bigs who aren’t anything special offensively and wings who are defense first that struggled to do much on offense.
 
If you only looked at the hits list, you would say that drafting athletic wing is good...but if you only looked at the busts lists you would also come away with the conclusion that athletic wing is high bust potential. It's definitely hit and miss.

I don't know if there's a real trend to decipher who is real and who isn't, but it does seem like high skill level/BBIQ are king amongst the wings. Guys like Barnes and Wagner were able to increase their role in the NBA whereas Okoro and Williams did not. So if you're hoping for an uptick in role, you might want to consider their ball handling, playmaking, and BBIQ instead of the simple "if he can shoot" test. If you count Amen and Ausar, there are a lot of wing sized guys that have gotten by without an elite jumper. Instead they are great defenders, and on offense they are ball handling + playmaking wings. The Igoudala mold if you will.

I've been looking at Ace compared to previous wing prospects, namely Tatum, Brown, and Ingram. If you blinded their names, you might think Ace played college in like 2001 or something. He definitely has the most old school game in the sense that he does not get to the efficient shots. Jaylen Brown was probably the worst college player, but he was still a force getting to the rim. It's hard to know how how much of Ace's backwards play is due to lack of ability or his own choosing. And if it's his own choosing, is he willing to change?
 
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