Picks or Playoffs.

[Zulu]

Really??? Think you way overvalue him then.

Do you still think I over value Harris??

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Somewhere The Thriller is crying because Utah is winning.

 

[Harcher]

Suppose Jazz make 2nd Round of the playoffs, assumption is that the AJ and DH trade value goes up. Why get rid of the players that are capable of taking you to the second round?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Suppose Jazz make 2nd Round of the playoffs, assumption is that the AJ and DH trade value goes up. Why get rid of the players that are capable of taking you to the second round?

Well I don't think there is anyway we sign Jefferson, Harris, and Millsap back for the 2013-2014 season. Trading one would be a good idea, at least by the deadline.

 

[mrob]

After watching this team gel over the last few weeks, I don't know whether it's more disturbing that we have a poll like this on a Jazz fans website or that over 25% of those "fans" actually want us to lose...

 

[Brown Notes]

When Utah is winning playoff games the arguments are going to change.

 

[freakazoid]

Luxury tax is going to be a big hit in two seasons. I see no way we are going to pay luxury tax then.

Utah was never going to be a team that went deep into the tax anyway, and they will be getting an extra 10 million a year in revenue sharing. The tax hit will be x1.5 up to 5 million over and x1.75 up to ten over. With the added revenue sharing, I don't think it really changes the way Utah looks at the tax. That is, I think they would be willing to go, say 5-8 million into it, if they're in a situation to contend for a title. The bigger issue involving the tax, is that teams are now much more handicapped in improving once they enter the tax. That means that GMs have to be a lot more strategic in building a team, because once they hit the tax, they're options become very limited. The great thing about this, however, is that the rich teams cannot just throw a ton of money into a team, and continue to build. The new CBA actually does do a lot to even the playing field, despite all the claims otherwise.

It's a straight forward question. We make the playoffs and we lose our pick. We miss the playoffs we get our pick. You are making it far too complicated.

I actually think he makes a point, though. Not that the question is flawed, but that my answer is more than just a yes or no.

The way the team has been playing, they actually do have a chance at getting as high as a 4 or 5 seed. That makes a big difference to me, as I'd gladly give up the pick for a decent chance at getting past the first round. However, getting eliminated in 4-5 games as 7th or 8th seed is completely overrated by fans, at least compared to the value of that pick in this draft. People get hung up on the idea of adding another rookie, and overlook the value of the pick as an asset in building the team. Like I explained above, GMs have to be more strategic with the new CBA in building a team to contend for a championship, and that extra asset would be valuable, and the sooner the better.

 

[freakazoid]

When Utah is winning playoff games the arguments are going to change.

That's just the thing, though. Almost everyone who wants the pick is saying they prefer the pick to getting creamed as a low seed. I don't think I've seen anyone say they'd prefer the pick over having some success in the playoffs.

 

[freakazoid]

Here's an article for those posters who like to use the argument that we don't need anymore young guys. I'm not trying to convince anyone that they shouldn't root for the playoffs, but I think a lot of people underestimate the value of a lotto pick as an asset.

The Skyrocketing Value Of Draft Picks

At the NBA trade deadline this season, late first-round picks were at a premium.

The Houston Rockets dealt Jordan Hill, an athletic 6’10, 245, 24-year-old big man with a 15.4 PER, for a first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers, assuming the cost of buying out Derek Fisher’s $3.4 million player option next season in the process.

The Cleveland Cavaliers dealt Ramon Sessions, a legit NBA starter who is only 25-years-old, for the Lakers’ other first-round pick, assuming the cost of Luke Walton’s $6.1 million salary in 2013

The most eyebrow-raising move of all was the Golden State Warriors essentially paying $11.4 million dollars for the San Antonio Spurs' first-round pick. Stephen Jackson’s contract expires after 2013 while Richard Jefferson will almost certainly pick up his player option for the 2013-14 season.

In a league that typically scoffs at the value of these picks, which have usually been available for $3 million in cash, it’s fair to wonder what these teams are thinking. However, two things, both the result of the lockout, are different in 2012: the heightened luxury tax penalties in the new CBA have increased the value of first-rounders’ cost-controlled salaries while the uncertainty surrounding the 2011-12 season helped keep many of college basketball’s top players in school an extra season.

Kentucky and North Carolina, the two favorites in the NCAA Tournament, have at least five players who would have been first-round picks last year: Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb. At least five more collegiate players -- Jared Sullinger (Ohio State), Jeremy Lamb (UConn), Perry Jones III (Baylor), Jeffrey Taylor and Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt) -- would have been first-round picks in 2011, one of the weakest drafts in recent memory.

Combine these returning players with an extremely talented freshman class and the 2012 draft should be as strong as 2008 (Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook) if not the famed 2003 class. There’s obviously not many more LeBron James types coming down the pipeline, but part of what made 2003 so special was the number of excellent contributors teams found at the end of the first-round: David West (#18), Boris Diaw (#21), Kendrick Perkins (#27), Leandro Barbosa (#28) and Josh Howard (#29).

History tells us that the odds are against late first-round picks ever becoming effective NBA contributors, but sometimes the most important part of gathering data is knowing when to ignore it. By their actions at the trade deadline, NBA teams seem to think 2012 first-round picks are three times as valuable as in previous years, and if you look at Draft Express’ current mock draft, that seems about right.

While I expect several of these players to return to school in an effort to be boost their stock for 2013, the level of talent possibly available at picks #20-30 is jaw-dropping. From top to bottom, with the exception of the Toronto Raptors’ Jonas Valanciunas, I’d take the late first-round of 2012 over picks #4-14 in 2011.

The 6’9, 240 Patric Young (Florida) and 6’11, 220 Arnett Moultrie (Mississippi State), two athletic but offensively limited power forwards, are fairly similar to Tristan Thompson, while Tony Mitchell (North Texas) has a much higher ceiling. Ezeli, an athletic 6’10, 250 big man with a 7’6 wingspan, should be an effective two-way center, one of the rarest commodities in the sport. Dion Waiters (Syracuse) is a lottery talent being hidden on a deep Syracuse team while Tony Wroten Jr. (Washington) is a Tyreke Evans clone.

There is certainly no comparing Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), currently projected to go #30, with Cory Joseph, the Spurs choice at No. 29 last year. Taylor is a 6’3, 180 combo guard with the skill and athleticism to play both backcourt positions at the next level who is averaging 17.1 points and 4.7 assists on 49% shooting; Joseph isn’t nearly as athletic and averaged only 10.4 points and 3.3 assists on 42% shooting at Texas last year.

There’s clearly more certainty in picking up NBA veterans over projecting college players to the next level, but teams like the Lakers are paying a heavy price for it. Ramon Sessions and Jordan Hill will cost the Lakers at least $9.5 million next season; in contrast, the Lakers could have had Moultrie and Taylor for as little as $3 million if they had kept their picks.

The end of the first-round is one of the easiest ways for teams to gain a lot of surplus value (what a player is contributing to a team versus how much he is being paid) on their roster. If they draft correctly, the hefty investments the Cavaliers, Rockets and Warriors made at the deadline will seem very wise in a few years.

Read more: https://basketball.realgm.com/article/219895/The_Skyrocketing_Value_Of_Draft_Picks#ixzz1q13wh4Y1

 

[Brown Notes]

That's just the thing, though. Almost everyone who wants the pick is saying they prefer the pick to getting creamed as a low seed. I don't think I've seen anyone say they'd prefer the pick over having some succes in the playoffs.

I want you on record over/under 1 playoff win. You can put me at 5 wins. This season.

In any case even the tankers and losers have to see that the Jazz are not going to do what they want. Utah is winning and doing it with ball movement and defense. WHOOPS haters.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I disagree. If we get an 8th seed and the young guys are not getting a major role in landing that seed then I would rather have two lotto picks. Now if we get in the playoffs and the young guys play a major role (what is currently happening during this streak) then I am all for the playoffs and only the GSW pick (god please lol)

Regardless of whether Hayward starts or comes off the bench he usually gets 25-30 minutes. Favors is always one of the first off the bench, and key contributor off the bench, getting a solid 20-25 minutes. Burks is also in the rotation, and is finishing games lately. Kanter is in the rotation, but he has shown to not be as seasoned as the other three, because of lack of experience, so his minutes are lower then the others, but it's not like he is getting DNP's. Besides giving him more minutes takes away the minutes Favors deserves. Make no mistake they all are playing a roll in the jazz playoff push.

 

[UtahJazzV4FTW]

Was a pick guy. As long as young guys keep playing decent minutes, playoffs for sure now. Valuable minutes for the youngsters (both getting there and experiencing how different the playoffs are).

 

[freakazoid]

I want you on record over/under 1 playoff win. You can put me at 5 wins. This season.

In any case even the tankers and losers have to see that the Jazz are not going to do what they want. Utah is winning and doing it with ball movement and defense. WHOOPS haters.

LOL. By losers, I'll just assume you're refering to the fans who want us to be KGs T-Wolves. First round exit every year. Nothing like setting your goals high in life. Anyway, Utah is 7-16 on the road this year. Major red flag, in spite of their recent success. In order to be a decent playoff team, you have to be able to win on the road. As good as the kool-aid is tasting right now, it's not too likely that Utah suddenly becomes a good road team this year. I'll go ahead and guess that their road woes will continue.

As far as playoff wins, that depends on their seeding. If they can get a 4 or 5 seed, then I think they have a shot at getting out of the first round. More likely, however, is that they end up 6-8, in which case I'll say they won't win more than 1 or 2 at best.

 

[Xsy]

Us Utah fans are a bunch of bipolar ****heads. I was on team picks in February. I've switched to team playoffs during March, and hard. I've had the biggest basketboner this month.

 

[Zulu]

The rest of the season is going to be great experience for our ninja turtles. Them having the pressure of making the playoffs and getting a good seed, then the actual playoff experience. Come on freakazoid they are rookies and sophomores, how often do guys this young get a chance to have this kind of experience to start their NBA career?

 

[freakazoid]

Come on freakazoid they are rookies and sophomores, how often do guys this young get a chance to have this kind of experience to start their NBA career?

Well, I actually agree to a point. I'm rooting for them, and if they can make playoffs, they deserve to have their shot. I just get a little annoyed when people say things like "We don't need anymore young guys, anyway." The truth is that the pick would be a valuable asset at this point in the rebuild. I'd rather lose it next year than this year, as it will likely be a lower pick in a weaker draft.

Anyway, I just want to make an objective comparison of the value of the pick, compared to extending the season by 4-5 games. I'm not rooting against my team, but I have to be honest about where I believe the greater value to the team is.

 

[YB85]

Now that the youngsters are contributing to the wins, I want them to make the playoffs. I don't care if it's to get swept by OKC or San Antonio. People point to the young Jazz team that took the Lakers to seven games in '88, but they forget that to get there, that same young Jazz team lost to Dallas with a whimper and gave up a 2-0 lead to lose a best of 5 against Golden State. Playoff experience will be better than getting the 12th-14th pick in the draft, but playoff experience while receiving Golden State's pick is the ideal.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Now that the youngsters are contributing to the wins, I want them to make the playoffs. I don't care if it's to get swept by OKC or San Antonio. People point to the young Jazz team that took the Lakers to seven games in '88, but they forget that to get there, that same young Jazz team lost to Dallas with a whimper and gave up a 2-0 lead to lose a best of 5 against Golden State. Playoff experience will be better than getting the 12th-14th pick in the draft, but playoff experience while receiving Golden State's pick is the ideal.

Perfect post.

 

[freakazoid]

That's just the thing, though. Almost everyone who wants the pick is saying they prefer the pick to getting creamed as a low seed. I don't think I've seen anyone say they'd prefer the pick over having some success in the playoffs.

I want you on record over/under 1 playoff win. You can put me at 5 wins. This season.

In any case even the tankers and losers have to see that the Jazz are not going to do what they want. Utah is winning and doing it with ball movement and defense. WHOOPS haters.

No surprise, mr. Brown notes doesn't show his face around here anymore. Or maybe you just don't use this alt anymore? I may be a dirty tanker/loser, but at least I'm still around to support my team through the down times. Also, gotta say I feel vindicated that Utah adopted the strategy you so adamantly protested as beneath us. If only they had done so when we losers wanted them to, our rebuild would have been significantly accelerated.