And small ball only works if those smalls are athletic up front.
Following potential 2012 draftees
- Thread starter Dr. Jones
- Start date
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
"Small-Ball is the new black." What the hell does that mean!!
It's a fashion term.
Kobe Bryant rejected Charlotte. I agree he can't be trusted but he had an OK career.
Ok, with lottery picks it's different. I don't see any mid to late 1st rounders doing this.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
God, I'm slow!
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Does anon else get the feeling that this entire draft process has been one big smokescreen, and that guys like Marshsll, PJ3, and T Jones, both Millers, Zeller, and Henson and others will go higher then expected while guys like Meyers, Lillard, Ross, and others will go lower.
I hate the time difference between me and you guys, I always miss the tidings.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
Just think if Sully and PJ3 had gone out last year they'd have been invited to the draft now they're out. Big mistake.
Or it works out for them and they go to established playoff teams who are going to develop them.
Or would you rather get drafted by the Bobcats or Kings?
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
You don't like to agree with anyone do ya Cy.
I'm just saying there are a lot of advantages to going to a team like the Celtics rather than going to a team like the Kings. It's not like they made a "big mistake". They are still going to get paid and they will get better coaching, stability, and players around them.
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
I hope this was sarcasm. Just ignore Wes it is "that" time of the month for him.
I didn't even think Wes was talking to orangello ... nor did I think orangello thought Wes was talking to him either .. I took it that orangello was just being funny .. I'm confused.
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
Message boards it is a love hate relationship
Chargers Jazz Angels
Well-Known Member
you are just being to hard on yourself
With the 2012 draft just a few days away, I thought maybe we'd look back to 2010. Warning: LONG and I don't expect a single person to want to read it.
(the cliff notes are that the NBA should have seen Cousins and Wall, for that matter, differently)
While this year it’s easy to see who the best available prospect is, there is supreme doubt of who the second best player is, as a handful of players have a legitimate case for that particular spot. 2010 was similar somewhat similar in that regard as John Wall was considered the best available player while players like Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and DeMarcus Cousins were all competing for the number two spot. At the time John Wall was considered a can’t miss prospect but has stumbled out of the gate in the early portion of his NBA career with a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.77 (71st in the NBA), meanwhile DeMarcus Cousins was drafted 5th overall by the Sacramento Kings and is quickly becoming one of the leagues best Centers with a Player Efficiency Rating of 21.72 (21st in the NBA), keeping in mind that 15.0 is average. Nobody could have predicted this right? As it turns out this reversal in player performance could have been spotted.
First before we delve into the data, I highly encourage you to explore the world of KenPom.com as it is bar-none the best site for college basketball available and where I have acquired the advanced data. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins entered the 2010 season as the #1 and #2 recruits in the nation and certainly performed like it. The duo led Kentucky to a 35-3 record and an Elite Eight appearance in John Calipari’s inaugural season as the Wildcat head coach. They both played huge roles in winning games for the ‘Cats but Wall received a majority of the accolades while Cousins was tagged as an immature player. This labeling carried over to the NBA Draft as Cousins fell slightly due to his attitude problem. Even without this problem Wall was still considered the better prospect, but was it deserved? As it turns out Cousins had the better freshman season.
At the end of his freshman campaign John Wall finished the season with an Offensive Rating of 108.0 points produced per 100 possessions) while using 27.3% of his teams possessions. Keep in mind that 20% of possessions used is average, so that Offensive Rating is even more impressive in that he was a high usage player (and done by a freshman). That rating was accomplished mainly by having an Effective Field Goal percentage of 50.3%, having an Assist Rate of 34.8 (6.5 per game), and drawing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. So not only could he produce for himself, but he could also produce for his teammates. He did have some issues though as he had a suspect perimeter shot (32.5%) and turned the ball over on an alarming of 24% of personal possessions (4.0 per game). While he was undoubtedly one of the best players in the nation, he had flaws that held him back offensively.
DeMarcus Cousins was considered the next best player on the 2010 Wildcats, but this should not have been the case. After finishing his freshman season Cousins finished with an Offensive Rating of 113.1 while using 31.3% of Kentucky’s possessions. So not only did Cousins produce more points per 100 possessions than Wall, he also used more possessions to do so! Keep in mind here that these are efficiency stats and using the ball more doesn’t mean that you will produce a higher Offensive Rating. An example of this would be Utah’s Josh Watkins who had an Offensive Rating of 86.7 while using 38.9% of his team’s possessions last season. Back to Cousins, this rating was done by connecting on 56.5% of interior shots, pulling down 4.1 offensive rebounds per game, and drawing 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Not to mention Cousins had surprisingly good passing ability out of the interior for a freshman big with an Assist Rate of 9.2% (1 per game). He did have flaws though, like his free throw shooting (60.4%) and he was whistled for an average of 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Despite his flaws he was much more efficient than John Wall his Freshman season.
Wall and Cousins certainly had spectacular seasons and were worthy selections in the 2010 NBA Draft, but their ranking of importance should have been switched. Yes, Cousins’ Draft stock was hurt by his “attitude problems,” but he was much better than Wall as it turns out, and it’s showing at the next level right now. Note that this evaluation did not even consider defensive play (Cousins was better there too as he had a Defensive Rating of 83.9 and Wall finished with a 94.1). So what does this teach us? It shows us that there are effective tools out there that eliminate human bias and find who the best players are. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, anyone could say now that Cousins should have been the #1 overall pick in the 2010 Draft as the numbers he is putting up are outshining Wall’s. But, attitude problem aside, it could have been predicted from the beginning as Cousins was the best of the bunch to begin with.
(the cliff notes are that the NBA should have seen Cousins and Wall, for that matter, differently)
While this year it’s easy to see who the best available prospect is, there is supreme doubt of who the second best player is, as a handful of players have a legitimate case for that particular spot. 2010 was similar somewhat similar in that regard as John Wall was considered the best available player while players like Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and DeMarcus Cousins were all competing for the number two spot. At the time John Wall was considered a can’t miss prospect but has stumbled out of the gate in the early portion of his NBA career with a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.77 (71st in the NBA), meanwhile DeMarcus Cousins was drafted 5th overall by the Sacramento Kings and is quickly becoming one of the leagues best Centers with a Player Efficiency Rating of 21.72 (21st in the NBA), keeping in mind that 15.0 is average. Nobody could have predicted this right? As it turns out this reversal in player performance could have been spotted.
First before we delve into the data, I highly encourage you to explore the world of KenPom.com as it is bar-none the best site for college basketball available and where I have acquired the advanced data. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins entered the 2010 season as the #1 and #2 recruits in the nation and certainly performed like it. The duo led Kentucky to a 35-3 record and an Elite Eight appearance in John Calipari’s inaugural season as the Wildcat head coach. They both played huge roles in winning games for the ‘Cats but Wall received a majority of the accolades while Cousins was tagged as an immature player. This labeling carried over to the NBA Draft as Cousins fell slightly due to his attitude problem. Even without this problem Wall was still considered the better prospect, but was it deserved? As it turns out Cousins had the better freshman season.
At the end of his freshman campaign John Wall finished the season with an Offensive Rating of 108.0 points produced per 100 possessions) while using 27.3% of his teams possessions. Keep in mind that 20% of possessions used is average, so that Offensive Rating is even more impressive in that he was a high usage player (and done by a freshman). That rating was accomplished mainly by having an Effective Field Goal percentage of 50.3%, having an Assist Rate of 34.8 (6.5 per game), and drawing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. So not only could he produce for himself, but he could also produce for his teammates. He did have some issues though as he had a suspect perimeter shot (32.5%) and turned the ball over on an alarming of 24% of personal possessions (4.0 per game). While he was undoubtedly one of the best players in the nation, he had flaws that held him back offensively.
DeMarcus Cousins was considered the next best player on the 2010 Wildcats, but this should not have been the case. After finishing his freshman season Cousins finished with an Offensive Rating of 113.1 while using 31.3% of Kentucky’s possessions. So not only did Cousins produce more points per 100 possessions than Wall, he also used more possessions to do so! Keep in mind here that these are efficiency stats and using the ball more doesn’t mean that you will produce a higher Offensive Rating. An example of this would be Utah’s Josh Watkins who had an Offensive Rating of 86.7 while using 38.9% of his team’s possessions last season. Back to Cousins, this rating was done by connecting on 56.5% of interior shots, pulling down 4.1 offensive rebounds per game, and drawing 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Not to mention Cousins had surprisingly good passing ability out of the interior for a freshman big with an Assist Rate of 9.2% (1 per game). He did have flaws though, like his free throw shooting (60.4%) and he was whistled for an average of 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Despite his flaws he was much more efficient than John Wall his Freshman season.
Wall and Cousins certainly had spectacular seasons and were worthy selections in the 2010 NBA Draft, but their ranking of importance should have been switched. Yes, Cousins’ Draft stock was hurt by his “attitude problems,” but he was much better than Wall as it turns out, and it’s showing at the next level right now. Note that this evaluation did not even consider defensive play (Cousins was better there too as he had a Defensive Rating of 83.9 and Wall finished with a 94.1). So what does this teach us? It shows us that there are effective tools out there that eliminate human bias and find who the best players are. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, anyone could say now that Cousins should have been the #1 overall pick in the 2010 Draft as the numbers he is putting up are outshining Wall’s. But, attitude problem aside, it could have been predicted from the beginning as Cousins was the best of the bunch to begin with.
