Following potential 2012 draftees

[Dr. Jones]

Okay, but what did the stats say about Evan Turner as a prospect? Did these player efficiency stats indicate that Turner would be a disappointment?

Evan Turner didn't play for UK. I kid .. I don't know, I guess I should compare the top 5 ..

 

[Dr. Jones]

ROYCE WHITE - DX

-Royce White has the unfortunate distinction of ranking dead last among forward prospects with 0.806 PPP. His poor overall efficiency is due heavily to his likewise last-ranked turnover percentage, as he turns the ball over on a whopping 23.5% of all possessions, which isn't even close to the second worst player at 18.1%. White sees 25% of his possessions come in isolations, which is the highest of everyone, and that certainly doesn't help his turnover rate much. Still, his PPP on both isolations and post ups rank towards the bottom of the pack, and his 0.683 PPS on jumpers ranks dead last. White's oversized role and high portion of shots coming in isolations and post-ups don't help his efficiency much, but his 16 possessions per game was only fifth highest of the 14 players ranked, so it's hard to excuse his efficiencies being as low as they are across the board.


From DraftExpress.com https://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yreCGR82
https://www.draftexpress.com

 

[The Midnight]

With the 2012 draft just a few days away, I thought maybe we'd look back to 2010. Warning: LONG and I don't expect a single person to want to read it.
(the cliff notes are that the NBA should have seen Cousins and Wall, for that matter, differently)


While this year it’s easy to see who the best available prospect is, there is supreme doubt of who the second best player is, as a handful of players have a legitimate case for that particular spot. 2010 was similar somewhat similar in that regard as John Wall was considered the best available player while players like Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, and DeMarcus Cousins were all competing for the number two spot. At the time John Wall was considered a can’t miss prospect but has stumbled out of the gate in the early portion of his NBA career with a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.77 (71st in the NBA), meanwhile DeMarcus Cousins was drafted 5th overall by the Sacramento Kings and is quickly becoming one of the leagues best Centers with a Player Efficiency Rating of 21.72 (21st in the NBA), keeping in mind that 15.0 is average. Nobody could have predicted this right? As it turns out this reversal in player performance could have been spotted.


First before we delve into the data, I highly encourage you to explore the world of KenPom.com as it is bar-none the best site for college basketball available and where I have acquired the advanced data. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins entered the 2010 season as the #1 and #2 recruits in the nation and certainly performed like it. The duo led Kentucky to a 35-3 record and an Elite Eight appearance in John Calipari’s inaugural season as the Wildcat head coach. They both played huge roles in winning games for the ‘Cats but Wall received a majority of the accolades while Cousins was tagged as an immature player. This labeling carried over to the NBA Draft as Cousins fell slightly due to his attitude problem. Even without this problem Wall was still considered the better prospect, but was it deserved? As it turns out Cousins had the better freshman season.

At the end of his freshman campaign John Wall finished the season with an Offensive Rating of 108.0 points produced per 100 possessions) while using 27.3% of his teams possessions. Keep in mind that 20% of possessions used is average, so that Offensive Rating is even more impressive in that he was a high usage player (and done by a freshman). That rating was accomplished mainly by having an Effective Field Goal percentage of 50.3%, having an Assist Rate of 34.8 (6.5 per game), and drawing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. So not only could he produce for himself, but he could also produce for his teammates. He did have some issues though as he had a suspect perimeter shot (32.5%) and turned the ball over on an alarming of 24% of personal possessions (4.0 per game). While he was undoubtedly one of the best players in the nation, he had flaws that held him back offensively.

DeMarcus Cousins was considered the next best player on the 2010 Wildcats, but this should not have been the case. After finishing his freshman season Cousins finished with an Offensive Rating of 113.1 while using 31.3% of Kentucky’s possessions. So not only did Cousins produce more points per 100 possessions than Wall, he also used more possessions to do so! Keep in mind here that these are efficiency stats and using the ball more doesn’t mean that you will produce a higher Offensive Rating. An example of this would be Utah’s Josh Watkins who had an Offensive Rating of 86.7 while using 38.9% of his team’s possessions last season. Back to Cousins, this rating was done by connecting on 56.5% of interior shots, pulling down 4.1 offensive rebounds per game, and drawing 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Not to mention Cousins had surprisingly good passing ability out of the interior for a freshman big with an Assist Rate of 9.2% (1 per game). He did have flaws though, like his free throw shooting (60.4%) and he was whistled for an average of 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. Despite his flaws he was much more efficient than John Wall his Freshman season.



Wall and Cousins certainly had spectacular seasons and were worthy selections in the 2010 NBA Draft, but their ranking of importance should have been switched. Yes, Cousins’ Draft stock was hurt by his “attitude problems,” but he was much better than Wall as it turns out, and it’s showing at the next level right now. Note that this evaluation did not even consider defensive play (Cousins was better there too as he had a Defensive Rating of 83.9 and Wall finished with a 94.1). So what does this teach us? It shows us that there are effective tools out there that eliminate human bias and find who the best players are. Hindsight is a beautiful thing, anyone could say now that Cousins should have been the #1 overall pick in the 2010 Draft as the numbers he is putting up are outshining Wall’s. But, attitude problem aside, it could have been predicted from the beginning as Cousins was the best of the bunch to begin with.

I didn't read a word of it - sorry PKM - too busy working.

But what if we'd traded up that year and picked up Cousins. Re-sign Boozer. Re-sign Matthews.

Cousins
Boozer - Millsap 6th man
AK
Matthews
DWill

Size, length, shooting, defense, offense...

Would that team make it to WCF this year? I think it might have a pretty good chance...

 

[Dr. Jones]

I didn't read a word of it - sorry PKM - too busy working.

But what if we'd traded up that year and picked up Cousins. Re-sign Boozer. Re-sign Matthews.

Cousins
Boozer - Millsap 6th man
AK
Matthews
DWill

Size, length, shooting, defense, offense...

Would that team make it to WCF this year? I think it might have a pretty good chance...

It was on the old board, but I came here to let you guys know that the Jazz were making serious inquiries into Cousins and seemed to be looking to try to make a deal to nab him. Truth.

 

[The Midnight]

It was on the old board, but I came here to let you guys know that the Jazz were making serious inquiries into Cousins and seemed to be looking to try to make a deal to nab him. Truth.

May be when his contract's up you can persuade him to come sign with us as a free agent?

Cousins & Favors front court would be unlike any pairing we've ever seen in the NBA since God-knows-when!!!!!!

 

[Dr. Jones]

May be when his contract's up you can persuade him to come sign with us as a free agent?

Cousins & Favors front court would be unlike any pairing we've ever seen in the NBA since God-knows-when!!!!!!

Demarcus is a good friend of mine and he's a really cool dude. He was my favorite player on the team his freshman year at UK. Would love to have him on the Jazz. Incidentally, most everyone around him loves the guy .. he really does get an unfair rap as a person. On the court, however, he's a whiny bitch that needs to learn to just shut up and ball.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Demarcus is a good friend of mine and he's a really cool dude. He was my favorite player on the team his freshman year at UK. Would love to have him on the Jazz. Incidentally, most everyone around him loves the guy .. he really does get an unfair rap as a person. On the court, however, he's a whiny bitch that needs to learn to just shut up and ball.

I don't think he likes Harris that much.

 

[orangello]

On the court, however, he's a whiny bitch that needs to learn to just shut up and ball.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I would love to see a Favors/Cousins line up.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I though it was Favors the jazz liked the most, and had him as the second best prospect in that draft.

 

[orangello]

I don't think he likes Harris that much.

No worries, Harris will be gone by then.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't think he likes Harris that much.

That's a no-brainer solution.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I would love to see a Favors/Cousins line up.

it would be intriguing. However at the moment I don't se him as a guy that plays winning basketball because of immaturity. And wonder how he'd get along with Favors. I didn't see him play a lot just against the jazz, and noticed him getting baited into shooting long jumpers way out of his range. I even recall him shooting a three with plenty of time on the clock.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

That's a no-brainer solution.

Yes that's what I was getting at sorry for not being clear on that.

 

[orangello]

it would be intriguing. However at the moment I don't se him as a guy that plays winning basketball because of immaturity. And wonder how he'd get along with Favors. I didn't see him play a lot just against the jazz, and noticed him getting baited into shooting long jumpers way out of his range. I even recall him shooting a three with plenty of time on the clock.

He is not perfect, but you are not taking into account who he played with.

Evans, Thornton, Thomas even Jimmer are ball hogs/chukers. Cousins wants the ball. He is a scorer. When he finally got the ball he wanted to score. Who can blame him?

He would love Corbin because he would get the ball in the low post and get to go to work. The Jazz would actually run plays for Cousins.

 

[Deleted member 848]

And small ball only works if those smalls are athletic up front.

By up front do you mean the frontcourt? Because Jesus, considering Rod Higgins and Chris Mullin athletic is a bit of a joke.


Richmond
Hardaway
Šarūnas Marčiulionis
Mullin
Rod Higgins

Who are the "athletic frontcourt" players?

What Small-ball relies on (and keep in mind that my remark was mostly a joke) is a volume of great three point shooters. Not athletic bigs.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Houston just traded Budinger to the wolves for the 18th pick, so now they have the 14th, 16th, and 18th pick. Is this a move toward making a play at D. Howard.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Houston just traded Budinger to the wolves for the 18th pick, so now they have the 14th, 16th, and 18th pick. Is this a move toward making a play at D. Howard.

That's what all this is about for them, yes. They are trying everything they can to get Dwight.

 

[orangello]

PKM, are you hearing anything? (Even if it is not Jazz related)

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Houston just traded Budinger to the wolves for the 18th pick, so now they have the 14th, 16th, and 18th pick. Is this a move toward making a play at D. Howard.

Dang someone beat me to it, about an hour late.

 

[Stoked]

Woke up and have been cautiously optimistic all morning thinking that today was the draft...then I realised that the draft is on the 28th...damnit!