The Thriller
Well-Known Member
It's seriously like you don't know anything about the situation on the Korean peninsula. N. Korea has conventional artillery in place that is within range of downtown Seoul. With this conventional artillery it is estimated that N. Korea could kill upwards of 100,000 people in Seoul, as well as causing massive damage to the city, in a matter of moments. No nukes required.
China and N. Korea are diplomatically very close. Maybe China does leave them blowing in the wind if TSHTF, but you can't know that. The only thing that keeps the people in N. Korea's beautiful communist utopia from starving to death are massive food shipments from China.
Plus there is the Korean war to use as a reference. In that war the N. Koreans were on the ropes and pushed all the way up against China. The U.S. overextended a little chasing the N. Korean army in full retreat right up until a massive flood of Chinese soldiers came south and pushed the U.S. clear back past where the current DMZ is.
N. Korea is a bad fit for U.S. nation building, mostly because S. Korea is wealthy and very technologically developed. It is one nation divided and I imagine if N. Korea were to be beaten into submission we'd just reunite the Koreas and let S. Korea figure it out. We already have a tense relationship with S. Korea. If we occupied N. Korea and tried to make it its own country they wouldn't stand for it.
Even if no nukes were used China doesn't want that type of disruption so close to their border. Especially with the USA. So like you said, let history be your guide. If you still think that China is of their 50s mentality of isolation and extreme communism then be my guest. Otherwise , I think we need to come to grips that China has opened itself a lot and has changed since then. They no longer (just like the ruskies) are looking for a fight against the USA. Their leaders no longer need to talk tough against imperialistic powers to retain power. They are well established now. And economically doing well. They aren't going to be overthrown anytime soon. And shouldn't be. Slowly but surely China is becoming more and more democratic and western. Relations just from 20 years ago is a difference between night and day.
As far as not knowing whether N Korea is serious on their threats, again, let history be your guide. Every 2 years for the past 60 they have threatened S Korea and the USA in one form or another. Chillax folks.
Things have changed since WWII and the 50s. We no longer have generals wanting to nuke the entire Asian seaboard and China is no longer looking at a war with the USA. Nor would they rush to N koeea's aid this time (unless provoked by a MacArthur like surge into Chinese territory).