Edit: Sorry for the spacing issues, it looks good in the message box until it's actually posted
Stat comparisons (per 40 pace adjusted) for commonly made player comparisons – Lawson vs Larkin; Fredette vs. Wolters
Lawson is slightly bigger/longer. Larkin measured as somewhat better athlete.
Lawson vs. Larkin after sophomore year (both age 20, in same conference, both high quality teams):
Pts 17.7 16.4
FG% 51.5 47.9
2p% 58.2 53.8
3p% 36.1 40.6
FTA 5.0 3.5
Reb 3.8 4.3
Asts 7.2 5.1
Stls 2.2 2.2
TOs 3.1 2.6
TS% 62 60
P/pos 1.16 1.06
A/TO 2.36 2.00
Wolters is 2.75” taller, has 0.75” shorter wingspan and 1.5” higher reach than Fredette. Athletic comparison not available because of Wolters’s injury in Combine.
Fredette vs. Wolters senior year (both 21 at draft; Jimmer played somewhat tougher competition)
Pts 30.0 24.0
FG% 45.2 48.0
2p% 49.1 53.2
3p% 39.6 38.0
FTA 7.9 7.6
Reb 3.6 5.8
Asts 4.5 6.2
Stls 1.4 1.9
TOs 3.7 2.6
TS% 59 60
P/pos 1.20 1.16
A/TO 1.22 2.40
(For one more comparison: Hornacek, perhaps an inch shorter than Wolters, was his team’s 2nd leading scorer playing in a strong conference at the same age, his junior year; Hornacek per 40 averaged 14.7 pts, 52.1 FG%, 3.3 FTA, 4.2 reb, 5.7 asts, 2.2 stls, 2.4 TO, 2.41 A/TO; Jeff’s FG% dropped to 47.8 his senior year, however.)
Takeaways?
I know stats are only a part of the picture, but I worry about Larkin’s inability to operate close to the rim (despite superior athletic testing) and play-make at Lawson’s level, but wonder if his better jumpshooting makes up for it.
If Jimmer can stick around in the league (and I think he probably will, if just barely), I think Wolters has a good shot to do as well or better. Wolters’ game looks statistically somewhat more similar to Hornacek’s than to Fredette’s. (Actually it’s Erick Green whose statistical profile this year seems closest to Jimmer’s.)