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The real lottery standings

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silesian

Well-Known Member
2022 Prediction Contest Winner
Current record is a weak predictor of draft rank, since it ignores the quality of those wins (opponent strength, road versus home).

Sagarin takes this into account and here is the lottery ranking (worst teams first)

1 Charlotte Bobcats
2 Philadelphia 76ers
3 Sacramento Kings
4 Orlando Magic
5 Phoenix Suns
6 Cleveland Cavaliers
7 Utah Jazz
8 Milwaukee Bucks
9 Boston Celtics
10 Detroit Pistons
11 Washington Wizards
12 Toronto Raptors
13 New Orleans Pelicans
14 Los Angeles Lakers

Compare this to current standings:

1 Utah
2 Washington
3 Milwaukee
4 Sacramento
5 Brooklyn
6 Detroit
7 New York
8 Boston
9 Cleveland
10 Denver
11 New Orleans
12 LA Lakers
13 Memphis
14 Phoenix

Based on Sagarin, expect Utah, Washington, Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Detroit, NY, Denver and Memphis to get worse picks than indicated by current standings

Expect Phoenix, Philly, Orlando, Toronto to get better picks than indicated by current standings.

For Jazz fans: don't count your Jabari Parker's before they hatch. (hope I'm wrong, don't kill the messenger please)
 
Um, does it not take margin of defeat into account? I have never seen a team down 20 in the second half as much as this Jazz team is. This is a really, really bad Jazz team. And we have LOST to bad teams. PHX has beaten bad teams. We lose to them.
 
He thinks the Cavs are going to out-tank us? What? Has he watched any of these teams? That'd be a serious referendum on Irving if the Cavs out-tanked us.

None of these teams are even on our ****ing tanking level. The whole NBA should be in awe of our tank so far. We're running Alec Burks and John Lucas. Our offense depends on whether Richard Jefferson is hitting his shots. RICHARD JEFFERSON.

They will regret underestimating us.
 
green said:
Um, does it not take margin of defeat into account? I have never seen a team down 20 in the second half as much as this Jazz team is. This is a really, really bad Jazz team. And we have LOST to bad teams. PHX has beaten bad teams. We lose to them.
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Surprisingly, it does take into account margin of defeat. If you go by pure wins/losses, Sagarin says that the Jazz are by far the worst team. But consider the scores, and they do better. Probably because of some of their early on close games against good teams, and their strength-of-schedule (2nd).
 
bordelais7 said:
Surprisingly, it does take into account margin of defeat. If you go by pure wins/losses, Sagarin says that the Jazz are by far the worst team. But consider the scores, and they do better. Probably because of some of their early on close games against good teams, and their strength-of-schedule (2nd).
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Does it really take into account Margin of defeat? The Jazz are BY FAR the worst team by that metric. They are losing by 11.5 points per game, the next closest team is the Bucks, and they are at -8.44 points per game. If the Jazz make up 8.44 ppg, they will still be a very bad team, in contention for a top 8 pick.

If this thing is ranking on strength of schedule, then I kind of get it, but that is the only metric that the Jazz could possibly be ahead of any other teams on. We are so bad right now.
 
Silesian, you should probably post a link to that - I believe the mods generally frown upon posting the content from another site without a link/crediting that site.
 
Wait, blown out every game after the first three, with a win against a bad team playing the second of a back-to-back. What the hell is this guy using for these rankings we have looked like absolute trash. No one is close to us right now, doesn't matter if we have a hard schedule we have been crushed in pretty much every game.
 
Jazz are way worse than the statistics show. If opposing teams kept the foot on the gas for the full 48 Jazz would have already lost 4 or 5 games by 30 plus points.
 
fallenchicken said:
He thinks the Cavs are going to out-tank us? What? Has he watched any of these teams? That'd be a serious referendum on Irving if the Cavs out-tanked us.

None of these teams are even on our ****ing tanking level. The whole NBA should be in awe of our tank so far. We're running Alec Burks and John Lucas. Our offense depends on whether Richard Jefferson is hitting his shots. RICHARD JEFFERSON.

They will regret underestimating us.
Click to expand...

I actually think the Cavs are a huge threat to our tank.

The players hate Mike Brown and if Irving gets hurt again, watch out.


£¥£
 
We have a secret weapon that they aren't taking into consideration.
I can't tell you who he is...but he told me to not worry about this prediction, because...and I quote.."It's just one prediction".
 
UGLI baby said:
I actually think the Cavs are a huge threat to our tank.

The players hate Mike Brown and if Irving gets hurt again, watch out.


£¥£
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I'd really start selling stock in Irving if he let's that team tank worse than us. Could happen but for a player as good as he is, even in a bad situation, that's not good.
 
Does it take into account setting the tone for the season and demoralization?
 
UGLI baby said:
I actually think the Cavs are a huge threat to our tank.

The players hate Mike Brown and if Irving gets hurt again, watch out.


£¥£
Click to expand...

Mike Brown is terrible. His history with the Cavs organization alone illustrates how clueless they are. They fired him apparently just because (or because they thought it would make Lebron happy) and had no backup plan (Byron ****ing Scott???????????), then they re-hire him just because (or because they thought that his tour of failure would somehow be more appealing to a more knowledgeable Lebron). That's saying nothing of their ****ing bizarre high draft picks of the last few years.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Mike Brown is terrible. His history with the Cavs organization alone illustrates how clueless they are. They fired him apparently just because (or because they thought it would make Lebron happy) and had no backup plan (Byron ****ing Scott???????????), then they re-hire him just because (or because they thought that his tour of failure would somehow be more appealing to a more knowledgeable Lebron). That's saying nothing of their ****ing bizarre high draft picks of the last few years.
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Yup. Amazing what little the Cavs have done with their high picks.


£¥£
 
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