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The "Official" How many Turnovers did Trey Burke have in this game thread.

1) Most players who've played a couple years of college tend to have career-turnover numbers within 0.1-0.5 of their rookie seasons (Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan)
2) Burke hasn't been given the complete set of keys to the offense. This team's offense is still Hayward's, which keeps Burke's turnovers a little lower than your typical PG who's told to run everything on his first season.


He is a smart player, a and a superb leader with good-decision making-- and he has already shown skills that he's developed to overcome his lack of size. He will be a good point guard for many years in this league, barring injury.
 
Everybody knows teh number one valuable skill in an NBA player is imagination. Let it run wild bros.



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Sirkickyass said:
Has anyone pointed out yet that low turnovers for a rookie is traditionally a sign that the rookie is already pretty close to their ceiling?

Many of the best players in the NBA were high turnover rookies because their imagination outpaced their actual skill level and they made mistakes. Later their skill level catches up.
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Or some players just make good decisions with the ball and have good enough handles not to put themselves in bad situations. A low turnover rate seems to be an odd point of criticism. . .
 
dalamon said:
1) Most players who've played a couple years of college tend to have career-turnover numbers within 0.1-0.5 of their rookie seasons (Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan)
Click to expand...

We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.


framer said:
Or some players just make good decisions with the ball and have good enough handles not to put themselves in bad situations. A low turnover rate seems to be an odd point of criticism. . .
Click to expand...

It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
 
Sirkickyass said:
We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
Click to expand...

TLDR; Low TO's is bad?
 
Sirkickyass said:
We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
Click to expand...

Did those players play a lot of minutes/starting role on a bad team? Just wondering.
 
Sirkickyass said:
It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
Click to expand...

Ya its too bad burke isn't committing lots more turnovers per game because then we could be excited about his future

But alas, he doesn't turn it over much so he will probably suck
 
Sirkickyass said:
We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
Click to expand...

Of the names on that list none of them were point guards. Pondexter plays the 3 in most situations. These aren't even driving guards. These are catch and shoot players. You have to list other PG's in order for you're list to have merit. Of course these guys would have low TO% the weren't making decisions with the ball.
 
Doublea said:
Did those players play a lot of minutes/starting role on a bad team? Just wondering.
Click to expand...

Chapman, Jones, and Kittles all started more than half their team's games that season. All but Pondexter and Meeks played more than 1000 minutes in their Rookie seasons.
 
da ThRONe said:
Of the names on that list none of them were point guards. Pondexter plays the 3 in most situations. These aren't even driving guards. These are catch and shoot players. You have to list other PG's in order for you're list to have merit. Of course these guys would have low TO% the weren't making decisions with the ball.
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Guess what: there are no other PGs that make that list. Can't find them. Never happened.

The only point guard I could find that came particularly close was Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. His play pattern is kind of a special case as others who were following the NBA at that point in time can attest.
 
Sirkickyass said:
Guess what: there are no other PGs that make that list.
Click to expand...

Well than he's on completely unique ground. Therefore there's no data to back-up the claim that not turning the ball over is a sign of limited potential. Maybe it just means he's coming into the league with that part of his game at an extremely high level so he can focus on other areas he needs to improve at.
 
da ThRONe said:
Well than he's on completely unique ground. Therefore there's no data to back-up the claim that not turning the ball over is a sign of limited potential. Maybe it just means he's coming into the league with that part of his game at an extremely high level so he can focus on other areas he needs to improve at.
Click to expand...

I see, so because he's had a handful of games with a low rate we should throw out everything else we can learn about player progression paths because he's a cute little snowflake.

I don't think analysis is going to be your strong suit. Come back when you're a bit older.
 
Sirkickyass said:
I see, so because he's had a handful of games with a low rate we should throw out everything else we can learn about player progression paths because he's a cute little snowflake.

I don't think analysis is going to be your strong suit. Come back when you're a bit older.
Click to expand...

Hold up aren't you the one making the claim and the list. If it's too early to judge him then why are you doing so. This whole discussion started because you started it not me.

Analysis isn't my strong suit, but you make a list of player that role was completely different from Burke to make a point???
 
da ThRONe said:
Hold up aren't you the one making the claim and the list. If it's too early to judge him then why are you doing so. This whole discussion started because you started it not me.

Analysis isn't my strong suit, but you make a list of player that role was completely different from Burke to make a point???
Click to expand...

Are you serious? Are you trolling?

My position was as follows: Low turnover rates as a rookie aren't a strong predictor of future improvement or NBA success.

A secondary position is that low turnover rates tend to correlate with less dramatic improvement in the future as there are fewer easily correctable mistakes to corral.

The entire point is that you can't get too excited about this stat. I didn't make any statements at all about whether or not Burke is a quality NBA player or would be in the future. Just that this particular metric is a poor one to try to make those judgments on and may indicate he's closer to his ceiling than we'd like.

The list is evidence both that the stat is itself is a poor predictor of success and that players at Burke's level in the stat tend to have a a low level of improvement following their rookie season. In all honesty, if he's as good as he's been right now for the next six seasons with no improvements I'd be generally fine with that.

The list isn't designed to be comparable sizes or play styles to Burke: it's designed to be the only possible list of players with similar TO% in their rookie season. I made a concession to limit it to players listed as "guards" simply to try and find more frequent ball handlers. I also made the guard concession for space, as expanding the list to include forwards and centers brings back 27 results instead. You can examine that larger list here: https://www.basketball-reference.co...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

For some of those players (Kawhi Leonard comes to mind) the jury is still out. However it is still generally the case that these players don't show much marked improvement from their rookie season in terms of NBA impact. In addition to the previously noted exception of Eddie Jones, I think the expanded list would add LaMarcus Aldridge and Harvey Grant as players who both made significant improvements from their rookie seasons and were legitimate assets to their team. For the rest of the list the story is generally pretty uniform.
 
Sirkickyass said:
We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.
Click to expand...
At first I thought your point was idiotic, but then you backed it up with some solid stuff. Well done.
 
Could make a decent argument that high TO's aren't that alarming for a rookie, bit to pretend like a lack of TO's caps someone's upside is beyond full artard.


dat jazzfanz.com mobile app doe
 
UGLI baby said:
Could make a decent argument that high TO's aren't that alarming for a rookie, bit to pretend like a lack of TO's caps someone's upside is beyond full artard.


dat jazzfanz.com mobile app doe
Click to expand...

Couldn't have said it better myself....except I would have exchanged the word bit for but
 
Sirkickyass said:
Are you serious? Are you trolling?

My position was as follows: Low turnover rates as a rookie aren't a strong predictor of future improvement or NBA success.

A secondary position is that low turnover rates tend to correlate with less dramatic improvement in the future as there are fewer easily correctable mistakes to corral.

The entire point is that you can't get too excited about this stat. I didn't make any statements at all about whether or not Burke is a quality NBA player or would be in the future. Just that this particular metric is a poor one to try to make those judgments on and may indicate he's closer to his ceiling than we'd like.

The list is evidence both that the stat is itself is a poor predictor of success and that players at Burke's level in the stat tend to have a a low level of improvement following their rookie season. In all honesty, if he's as good as he's been right now for the next six seasons with no improvements I'd be generally fine with that.

The list isn't designed to be comparable sizes or play styles to Burke: it's designed to be the only possible list of players with similar TO% in their rookie season. I made a concession to limit it to players listed as "guards" simply to try and find more frequent ball handlers. I also made the guard concession for space, as expanding the list to include forwards and centers brings back 27 results instead. You can examine that larger list here: https://www.basketball-reference.co...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

For some of those players (Kawhi Leonard comes to mind) the jury is still out. However it is still generally the case that these players don't show much marked improvement from their rookie season in terms of NBA impact. In addition to the previously noted exception of Eddie Jones, I think the expanded list would add LaMarcus Aldridge and Harvey Grant as players who both made significant improvements from their rookie seasons and were legitimate assets to their team. For the rest of the list the story is generally pretty uniform.
Click to expand...

If trolling is asking someone to have some consistency in their stance. Then yes I'm trolling.

1st why are you making these comparsions if it just a sample?

2nd to your point about not getting excited why not? Your agrument has too many fallacy in it. You are basically comparing apples to oranges when you compare players that are catch-n-shoot wings to a lead guard. What are these players usage rate? How many mins did they log their rookie seasons? What were their over all projections as pros? Just a few questions that would need to be answered to get a feel for why they had such low TO% and why they didn't improve.

You are assuming that I'm not aware of your original point. I never said how you felt about Burke as a prospect. This has always been about you suggesting that his low TO% is not a good indication that he will be a good player, and that it may be a sign that his ceiling is limited.
 
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