This is why Celtic coaches do not rely on the "points off turnovers" statistic to determine the cost of turnovers to the team. Rather, they focus on the true costs of turnovers, which are twofold:
- First, the biggest cost of a turnover is that the team who turned the ball over loses an offensive scoring opportunity. This, and not the opponent's next possession, is the most important cost of committing a turnover. Teams only get about 94 offensive possessions per game, and the loss of one of these scoring opportunities, much like an out in baseball, is not something you can get back. The Celtics average about 1.21 points per possession when they don't commit a turnover; so each turnover, on average, costs the team one of these opportunities.
- Second, the opponent often gets an improved scoring opportunity off a turnover. This varies by type of turnovers, however; an offensive foul after which the defense is able to set up will not improve the opponent's chances of scoring against that defense - they are as likely to score as they would have been had they scored and called a timeout. In contrast, a steal leading to a high-percentage fast break can be a particularly costly turnover. On average, Celtic opponents score 0.08 more points following our turnovers than they do when they get the ball at other times.
So the true "points off of turnovers" for Celtic opponents is about 1.29 points per turnover, though obviously this will vary on any given night depending on the type of turnover and when in our offensive possession it occurred.
