Without enacting other policies to deter use, legalization/decriminalization of drugs should lead to an increase in use, at least in the short-run (all else equal). How this increase occurs is of some interest, perhaps. With legalization, changes in potential consequences (arrest, incarceration) and social norms should increase use at the extensive margin (new users). Legalization should also lead to some decrease in price (depending on the regulatory regime, and how resources are used to combat black market production and sales), which should increase use among current consumers (that is, at the intensive margin).
So what? Is use what we're most concerned about? What about problematic use/abuse (addicts) and youth consumption? Is the criminal law the best way to reduce the negative consequences of drug abuse (in either social or financial cost)?
This is what is most often missed in this discussion. Prohibition costs money...lots of ****ing money. Roughly half of all arrests in America are for marijuana-related offenses; ~90% of those arrests are for simple possession. Jeffrey Miron, a Harvard economist, estimates that the legalization of drugs would save state and federal governments $41.3 billion in enforcement, and potentially yield tax revenues of $46.7 billion. That ~$90 billion can be used to combat drug abuse, and the negative consequences of said abuse, in other ways. It can also be used to focus efforts on actually eliminating the black market, making the use of drugs safer, and also more effectively keeping drugs out of the hands of minors.
While I'm not a fan of Glenn Greenwald's CATO Institute report on the effects of decriminalization in Portugal, there are a few key outcomes worth considering. While drug use has gone up (albeit at similar rates as in neighboring countries), use among youth and problematic users (addicts) has declined. Further, the prevalence of HIV, other diseases associated with injection, and drug-related deaths have declined. The policies/programs that led to these positive positive outcomes were/are not nearly as expensive as prohibition.
If the War on Drugs isn't working, shouldn't we try something else? Are issues of public health best dealt with using the criminal law?
Bringing it, as usual, like a BAWSE.
When are you coming down, Thomas? We've got room for you to stay a while, the weather's beautiful, and the fishing is about to turn on...