14th Tank Platoon

[Coach Ellis]

I like both, but I like Vonleh better.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Vonleh is the consensus pick with a few deviants going for Gordon or Stauskas.

Which means it will be none of those three. When in doubt, ask yourself, what would Kevin do?

 

[Hotdog]

But the percentages never lie.

The problem with your theory is that while yes, teams 4-9 often jump, we don't have picks 4-9, we have one specific pick. Can you guess in any given year which pick will jump into the top 3?

What are the odds of you being able to correctly guess the exact pick that will jump? Whatever the listed percentage odds for that pick are.

There is no other discussion or debate about it.

#Math

ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.

 

[UGLI baby]

ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.

You don't understand math, I didn't read.

 

[Hotdog]

You don't understand math, I didn't read.

Ugli staHp!


You are retarded.

 

[Hotdog]

I bet Ugli sucks at gambling

 

[UGLI baby]

Ugli staHp!


You are retarded.

Sugar good for you, ping pong balls have memories.

 

[Doublea]

ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.

That is really stupid logic and you are just bringing superstitions into the equation. Your saying that past results will effect the future results. I hope you never go into a statistics class.

That's also a very small sample size, many oddities will appear when it's only been used 18 times.
Give me the 4th pick, its better than the 5th.

 

[UGLI baby]

I bet Ugli sucks at gambling

Holy ****ing **** you're gonna make my brain explode.

You're the guy who plays roulette and bets on whatever numbers have been landing a lot because those numbers are "hot"

 

[BTP]

I like Vonleh better, but his skills would be redundant with Kanter in place. So Gordon in that case or neither of both.
If the Jazz pick is that late in the lotter I either try to initiate a trade or maybe even trade down and take James Young or Mario Hezonja in case he declares(which I doubt)

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I bet Ugli sucks at gambling

Sucks at Poker

*confirmed*

 

[UGLI baby]

Sucks at Poker

*confirmed*

Lol

 

[Doublea]

Mavs and Grizzlies move closer to GS, hope Miami beats them too!

Rooting for the Cavs and Kings to pull out wins!

 

[b_line]

Is Gordon the next Ronnie Brewer? Or is he the next K. Leonard?

Next Derrick Williams, tbh

 

[Doublea]

Mavs and Grizzlies move closer to GS, hope Miami beats them too!

Rooting for the Cavs and Kings to pull out wins!

and they did!

 

[ljnapoli]

Vonleh is the consensus pick with a few deviants going for Gordon or Stauskas.

Would rather burn in hell then draft Stauskas.

 

[ljnapoli]

ahhh. But percentages can lie.


Since 1995 the odds of winning the number 1 overrall pick have been roughly the same. Its changed a few times because of an addition of a team to the lottery, bringing the number of lottery teams from 13-14. But they didn't change much. The 1st slot changed from 22.5% to 25% etc..But for the purpose of the argument we will start it at 1995 so we can get a bigger picture.

The odds for winning the lottery are shown in the table primetime made. I dont think I need to show them because you should know what they are. They are on page one in case you dont.

This is how many times each slot has actually won the 1st pick overall since 1995

1. 2 times
2. 2 times
3. 6 times
4. Zero times
5. 4 times
6. 2 times
7. 1 time
8. 1 time
9. 1 time
10. Zero times
11. Zero times
12. Zero times
13. Zero times
14. Zero times

So you see, even though the first slot has a 25% chance of winning the 1st pick, its actually only won it 10.5% of the time.
1st - 10.5%
2nd -10.5%
3rd - 31.6%
4th - 0%
5th - 21%
6th - 10.5%
7th - 5%
8th - 5%
9th - 5%
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%

Thats whats actually happened. So the percentages can lie.

Personally, Id rather not even have the 4 slot. Id prefer the 3rd or the 5th. I dont really care about first or second. Plus that ship has sailed.

Also, if you look at how each slot has faired to win the 2nd or 3rd lottery slot, it shows that chances are still good 1-5. But for example, winning the 3rd slot doesnt ever really happen passed the 5th slot. Winning 2nd hasnt won much past the 7th slot. But that whole range is pretty evenly distributed.


Its just a lot of luck. Anyone can win 1-6, perhaps 1-9.

First thing I learnt in Business Statistics class 'Past results have no relation to current tests'.
The percentages are given too you. Unless the magic ping pong ball fairy really hates the team that finishes 4th to last.

 

[Hotdog]

First thing I learnt in Business Statistics class 'Past results have no relation to current tests'.
The percentages are given too you. Unless the magic ping pong ball fairy really hates the team that finishes 4th to last.

I only posted what I did to point out that its not any kind of guarantee that having a top slot will result in a lottery win, and to give hope to Ugli, and point out that our chances wont be dead in 1-6 range.

Also, life is not predictable. Ping pong balls arent predictable. Saying what can happen doesnt predict what does happen. In order for the statistics to play out the way you think they should, you would play it a lot of times. We arent doing that. Its one year.

 

[zbone]

Hack genuinely does not understand what probability is. Leave him alone.

 

[Doublea]

I only posted what I did to point out that its not any kind of guarantee that having a top slot will result in a lottery win, and to give hope to Ugli, and point out that our chances wont be dead in 1-6 range.

Also, life is not predictable. Ping pong balls arent predictable. Saying what can happen doesnt predict what does happen. In order for the statistics to play out the way you think they should, you would play it a lot of times. We arent doing that. Its one year.

Yeah, but you said that you would rather have the 5th pick than the 4th pick...