14th Tank Platoon
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Demar and Tyrke would represent the high end of what Alec would get IMO. Still one of those guys was ROY and had super-star potential, and the other averaged 18 ppg in his 4th year. Alec isn't near those stats over his 4 years. Yes, he has been given less opportunity, but he still hasn't put up those numbers. If he does put up those numbers in his 4th year, he will probably be looking at somewhere between 8-10 per year, but I can nearly guarantee 12 won't be in the convo. Glad you brought those up because I didn't think about them.
Gordon contract is super dumb and everyone knows he is vastly over-paid.
Not really though because Monroe has been starting over 75% of the games he has played. NBA teams know who he is for the most part.
Enes is still largely a mystery I think because of his inconsistency. Looked really good last year before his injury, looked awful to start this year, then took half the year to start looking good again.
Yeah, he failed. He didn't come ready to dominate. He took a step back in his development. He came in out of shape and didn't seize the opportunity.
Right. I told you that would be the high end of what he might get. I agree with most of what you are saying, I'm just making a counterpoint for argument sake. Burks is only in his 3rd year iirc. Demar Derozan played 35 minutes in his 2nd and 3rd year and averaged 17 points. Burks is at 27 averaging 13 points. Derozan shot .096 and .261 on 3's. Burks has been over .333, .359 and .348. Now I don't know what Derozan does defensively, but he wasn't any more impressive offensively his first 3 years than what Burks is now.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
IINM, the cap is about $58.7M and the luxury tax kicks in at $71.7M. For the sake of argument, we can even assume no increase to those totals.
Someone please correct my math, I did this quickly and it may be off a little for the draft picks. Numbers are rounded and I even kicked in an extra $500K for Neto to help him with his buyout (paying him like a 1st-rounder). Let's assume "worst case" (Hayward and Kanter at $12M and Burks at $10M).
| Favors |
| Hayward |
| Kanter |
| Burks |
| Burke |
| Pick #1 |
| Pick #2 |
| Gobert |
| Neto |
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]$2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] Total
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"] $58 [/TD]
So until 2018, we're good. $14M to fill the roster with 4-6 players. Able to fill out the roster above with 4-6 players, even add a couple of pretty good FA's (like Marvin at $5M, for example). Coming up on 2018, Lindsey may have some tough decisions to make. If Burke pans out, he'll be due a nice raise. Favors and Hayward will need new contracts. Gobert is likely to draw a lot of interest. Fortunately, Utah has extra assets (including GS' #1 in 2017). Undoubtedly, a couple players will have to move on via trade or free agency. We're also assuming ALL these players have signed at top value. I doubt Burke will get a ton. He's not, and probably will never be, a top-10 PG. He'll be affordable - or replaceable. And the bigs will likely come down to 2 out of 3 between Favors, Kanter and Gobert. There is always roster churn on every team, even contenders. OKC lost Harden, they're still pretty good. SA loses players every year and replaces them with their draft picks or reasonably-priced veterans.
In sum, what I'm saying is the Jazz will have enough to pay their top-5, have a couple solid players on rookie deals, and then fill in around them - as long as Lindsey stays away from bad contracts - i.e. making deals just to make a deal.
Yeah, players out of rookie contracts also tend to hold perceptions to their 2nd contracts. Meaning, Evans was still seen to have some big time potential, which would explain why he got paid more than a guy like Derozan even though he underperformed him in recent years. I think Derozan had some of that working in his favor too that I don't think Burks will have as much of. If that makes sense.
fishonjazz
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I think burks is currently in his third year isnt he?
And his rookie year was a lockout season too
fishonjazz
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Was referring to this btw
The funny thing is that this whole argument started with you saying that Jazz might match Hayward, even if it is near the Max because they won't be in luxary tax trouble until they needed to resign Hayward and Favors. I was just making an argument that might not be the case (all this with the assumption that Hayward gets matched for the Max).
If Hayward doesn't make the max then they probably won't have a problem. But if he does, then there is a chance they might.
Edit, by the way, I just did my math over from last page. Jazz would be around 64 million instead of 73 million, so it would take a lot more for the Jazz to be in trouble than I thought. Kanter would have to be a max player for it to be an issue. Sorry for my mistake. My whole premise is shot down. I blame all of you for not catching my mistake.
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Meant like, even if Alec has a good 4th year (like 20 ppg) his 4 year averages won't be on their level. Highly doubt he averages 20 ppg, or even close to it, if we add a lottery pick and retain Hayward.
Stifle Tower
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And doesn't the table show that? There's no problem keeping ALL our players until 2018, even if you were to kick it up another $1M/per for Hayward. By then, who knows what happens? One of the draft picks over the next 4 years could replace a veteran. Lindsay could do a 2-1 deal to bring in a stud player at a certain position. There are a lot of scenarios. Millers could even step into tax territory a little bit for one year. Tax penalty pounds repeat offenders, but if Utah is contending for a title, Millers have shown they're willing to be a short-term payer.
fishonjazz
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I see.
Again, i think its too early to tell.
Though if corbin is coach next year then he certainly wont get 35 minutes per game like derozan and tyreke so ya he wont be able to put up 20 pts per in his 27 minutes.
Max for Hayward would be closer to 15 million per. so with that, and with a possible (unlikely) max for Kanter at around the same, with Burks at 12 (also highly unlikely) Jazz are at 66 million, still under luxury tax. See my edit at the end of this post. Now there could be trouble when Burke's contract is up, but even then they will probably be OK if they keep Kanter/Burks/Hayward reasonable.
Edit: by the way, the math on your table is wrong. The numbers would add up to 59, not that it matters.
I think execs are smarter than that. The thing that will hurt Alec more, is that they won't show what he can do as a first option. Hayward looked a lot better as a second option. Evans was a first option (in his own mind at least) since his rookie year. This might make teams gunshy about him. Burks stats in year 2 and 3 are actually pretty similar to what James Harden did in years 1 and 2 with similar minutes, and Harden only started 7 games in his first 3 years, so he was never a top option either.
There is still a lot unknown about Alec, but he should get the chance to show it in the next 1 1/2 years. He could end up anywhere from 7-8 million to a near max type player, but will probably end up near 10 per imo.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
I think I stated the numbers were rounded. Gobert, Neto and Pick #2 are in at $1.5M. So that actually brings it down to $57.5M.
Yes, I see what you are saying about "MAX" players. But given articles that Hayward wanted "somewhat less" than George and he and the Jazz were several million apart, I'm thinking "worst case" is $13M. If someone steps up and offers $15M, Jazz would be insane to match (even $13M should give them pause).
I think I stated the numbers were rounded. Gobert, Neto and Pick #2 are in at $1.5M. So that actually brings it down to $57.5M.
Yes, I see what you are saying about "MAX" players. But given articles that Hayward wanted "somewhat less" than George and he and the Jazz were several million apart, I'm thinking "worst case" is $13M. If someone steps up and offers $15M, Jazz would be insane to match (even $13M should give them pause).
Gotcha. Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens. 4/50 would be a decent contract and wouldn't bankrupt the Jazz.
I don't think the Jazz would match a max offer, but then I also don't think Hayward will get a max offer. I do think it's pretty likely that (a) the Jazz will match whatever offer he gets, and (b) the bulk of the people here on jazzfanz (myself included) will feel that they overpaid.
spycam1
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I'll be fine with that, if we get Parker/Wiggins, though.
Yeah, but I meant it in a sense of:
Both Enes and Monroe look like they're going to be guys who operate from the high post/elbow a lot. Monroe drives it right now successfully, Enes shoots it when the defense is late and sometimes putts it on the floor.
Both aren't explosive enough to be good defensively. Their defense consists of grabbing rebounds mainly.