Official 2014 Draft "Final Call" Thread
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Bawse Dawg
Well-Known Member
0% chance a guy named Dinwiddle has a successful NBA career.
Twin Towers
Well-Known Member
You can't predict work ethic.
but I am going to try and explain Best case and Worst case on what specifics abilities will tip the scale one way or another.
Wiggins - Will probably never be a SUPER star but will be a borderline all-star or barely an all-star. Somebody who will be good at everything but not GREAT. Someone who will help you win games and help a team get far into the playoffs once he develops.
Biggest question.....Can he finish at the rim??? If he can learn to convert in the paint at a higher rate...... He could be very good. He did not score at a very high rate in college at the rim. I actually think Wiggins is a safer pick then Parker because he can do so many things and be effective even if he never becomes a star.
Parker - Everyone says he will FOR SURE score 20 a game....... Not so sure about that. If he doesn't trim that body fat down and become quicker I am really worried that he won't be able to create separation at the 3 position. You can maybe hide him at the 4 spot but he got pushed around in college down low so I don't think that is a good spot for him. If he gets down to 230..... All-star. If he doesn't. I could see him busting. Yes literally his weight and speed are tied together as his quickness isn't good to begin with.
Embiid - Could be a 15 and 10 and 2-3 blocks per game guy. But all depends on his health. His length and mobility could be more effective then any stats will show. I think he will get healthy and come around. I don't think Hakeem is his best case. I don't think he has the same mobility and quickness. But I think he could be a Center on a contending team.
Dante Exum - I think this guy is so overrated. I see Shaun Livingston AFTER his injury. I see him as just throwing up bad shots in the paint and not converting. Hasn't proven to be a great playmaker. I see bust written all over this guy.
Noah Vonleh - Never an all-star but I see him as a solid pro for years to come. I think he is a very safe pick. Will be a double double machine I think. But more of a great rebounder and defender. And will be able to score more and more if he is able to run the pick and roll with someone. He is a dual threat player with a decent outside shot and above average post moves for his age.
Marcus Smart He could turn into a nobody like Randy Foye did........Yes Randy Foye had a complete game coming out of college and everyone was worried about his shot. And somehow he lost the complete game and gained a shot.......weird career.
or turn into a defensive monster like Tony Allen and do little bit of everything besides shoot.
Or he could be a poor man's Westbrook. I personally see him as a combo guard off the bench who will play both positions. And I think that role is needed everywhere. I don't see him as an all-star though. Just a long NBA career because of tons of effort but more emotional so he never gets the mental aspect of the game until its too late to become a star.
Aaron Gordon I believed the "experts" when they said he is a 4. And I didn't even research him much because of it. I don't think he can handle playing the 4 full time. Especially against playoff caliber teams. In spurts I think he can though to change things up to throw the other team off or to match up when another team goes small. BUT I had no idea this guy could dribble the way he can, pass the way he can, rebound, play AMAZING man to man D. He is so disciplined on defense. Such a weird thing to get excited about. but most guys take chances and try to get stats. This guy doesn't fall for pump fakes. great lateral quickness. This guy can be a KD stopper in the West.
He has everything you want in a SF. I see him as a Lamar Odom/AK type player but with better lateral quickness. And I hear his shot keeps improving. Everyone compares to him Kawai. I see a better passer, defender, rebounder, handles etc then Kawai had coming out. If he can get his shot down...... look out. I am hoping we draft him. I don't think he will ever be an all-star. But I think he will be a championship type player. Somebody who will do whatever you need. Somebody that is a key piece to create a contending team.
Julius Randle - Solid pro who will be a 15 and 9 player. Has to have a legit Center next to him. Like a Gasol or Hibbert. Someone with size to protect the rim. In the same way Kanter needs a rim protector
Elfrid Payton Looks like he is going to be a solid pro player. Excited for him. Just needs to get that mid range shot down. Then move out to the 3. If he never improves that jumper or floater....... He will bust. But I think he will do it as his mechanics are decent.
Doug McDermott Adam Morrison or Ryan Anderson??? I am torn. If he can be a catch and shoot player..... Long career. If he can't. Bust.
Nik Stauskas Long NBA career coming off the bench and hitting 3's. Underrated in terms of being a complete player. He can do much more but most teams won't utilize him properly. If he was on a team like the Spurs, Bulls, Jazz etc who actually have a system..... He could be great. Otherwise just a spot up shooter and a good one.
but I am going to try and explain Best case and Worst case on what specifics abilities will tip the scale one way or another.
Wiggins - Will probably never be a SUPER star but will be a borderline all-star or barely an all-star. Somebody who will be good at everything but not GREAT. Someone who will help you win games and help a team get far into the playoffs once he develops.
Biggest question.....Can he finish at the rim??? If he can learn to convert in the paint at a higher rate...... He could be very good. He did not score at a very high rate in college at the rim. I actually think Wiggins is a safer pick then Parker because he can do so many things and be effective even if he never becomes a star.
Parker - Everyone says he will FOR SURE score 20 a game....... Not so sure about that. If he doesn't trim that body fat down and become quicker I am really worried that he won't be able to create separation at the 3 position. You can maybe hide him at the 4 spot but he got pushed around in college down low so I don't think that is a good spot for him. If he gets down to 230..... All-star. If he doesn't. I could see him busting. Yes literally his weight and speed are tied together as his quickness isn't good to begin with.
Embiid - Could be a 15 and 10 and 2-3 blocks per game guy. But all depends on his health. His length and mobility could be more effective then any stats will show. I think he will get healthy and come around. I don't think Hakeem is his best case. I don't think he has the same mobility and quickness. But I think he could be a Center on a contending team.
Dante Exum - I think this guy is so overrated. I see Shaun Livingston AFTER his injury. I see him as just throwing up bad shots in the paint and not converting. Hasn't proven to be a great playmaker. I see bust written all over this guy.
Noah Vonleh - Never an all-star but I see him as a solid pro for years to come. I think he is a very safe pick. Will be a double double machine I think. But more of a great rebounder and defender. And will be able to score more and more if he is able to run the pick and roll with someone. He is a dual threat player with a decent outside shot and above average post moves for his age.
Marcus Smart He could turn into a nobody like Randy Foye did........Yes Randy Foye had a complete game coming out of college and everyone was worried about his shot. And somehow he lost the complete game and gained a shot.......weird career.
or turn into a defensive monster like Tony Allen and do little bit of everything besides shoot.
Or he could be a poor man's Westbrook. I personally see him as a combo guard off the bench who will play both positions. And I think that role is needed everywhere. I don't see him as an all-star though. Just a long NBA career because of tons of effort but more emotional so he never gets the mental aspect of the game until its too late to become a star.
Aaron Gordon I believed the "experts" when they said he is a 4. And I didn't even research him much because of it. I don't think he can handle playing the 4 full time. Especially against playoff caliber teams. In spurts I think he can though to change things up to throw the other team off or to match up when another team goes small. BUT I had no idea this guy could dribble the way he can, pass the way he can, rebound, play AMAZING man to man D. He is so disciplined on defense. Such a weird thing to get excited about. but most guys take chances and try to get stats. This guy doesn't fall for pump fakes. great lateral quickness. This guy can be a KD stopper in the West.
He has everything you want in a SF. I see him as a Lamar Odom/AK type player but with better lateral quickness. And I hear his shot keeps improving. Everyone compares to him Kawai. I see a better passer, defender, rebounder, handles etc then Kawai had coming out. If he can get his shot down...... look out. I am hoping we draft him. I don't think he will ever be an all-star. But I think he will be a championship type player. Somebody who will do whatever you need. Somebody that is a key piece to create a contending team.
Julius Randle - Solid pro who will be a 15 and 9 player. Has to have a legit Center next to him. Like a Gasol or Hibbert. Someone with size to protect the rim. In the same way Kanter needs a rim protector
Elfrid Payton Looks like he is going to be a solid pro player. Excited for him. Just needs to get that mid range shot down. Then move out to the 3. If he never improves that jumper or floater....... He will bust. But I think he will do it as his mechanics are decent.
Doug McDermott Adam Morrison or Ryan Anderson??? I am torn. If he can be a catch and shoot player..... Long career. If he can't. Bust.
Nik Stauskas Long NBA career coming off the bench and hitting 3's. Underrated in terms of being a complete player. He can do much more but most teams won't utilize him properly. If he was on a team like the Spurs, Bulls, Jazz etc who actually have a system..... He could be great. Otherwise just a spot up shooter and a good one.
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Couldn't agree more
Do you see this as his ceiling? I don't think an 18 (or 19, whatever he is) year old version of the current Shaun Livingston is a bad thing at all.
My sentiments exactly
Lakers_Slapper
Well-Known Member
I can't say who the Jazz will draft, but I really don't think that their intentions are to stick around at #5 pick. Not saying that they will be successful at moving up, but I think that Hayward will be traded along with Favors in exchange for a higher pick. Again I think this will be an attempt whether or not they are successful is a different story. If they are not successful with the trade up, I think that we could land Smart at the #5.
addictionary
Well-Known Member
Tonight is the night...
And it's going to happen again and again... every decade...
Has to happen.
And it's going to happen again and again... every decade...
Has to happen.
jazzrule
Well-Known Member
For the thousandth time Hayward can not be traded till after the draft.
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
I think the best offensive player in this draft will be Dante Exum. At this point Im 110% sold on his BBIQ.
For what its worth I've done extensive research on 'tells' and reading body language. In the last few days after reviewing some footage, to me, Dante Exum looks like he interviews by far the best of these top guys, he seems incredibly sure of himself, id use the word genuine.
These other players interview like 18 year olds.
For what its worth I've done extensive research on 'tells' and reading body language. In the last few days after reviewing some footage, to me, Dante Exum looks like he interviews by far the best of these top guys, he seems incredibly sure of himself, id use the word genuine.
These other players interview like 18 year olds.
Well they are 18 year kids. I don't think Aaron Gordon sounds like he is eighteen. He sounds very confident in his abilities without be cocky. I certainly wouldn't pick a player solely on his interview skills though. A lot of people can talk the talk but can't walk the walk.
I am not a big prediction guy especially fortune-telling. I don't know what will happen next week. Beside I don't have all the inside information about the player's attitudes, medical issues and abilities. Nevertheless, here is my attempt to predict what might happen:
I think the Jazz will try to move up in the draft to pick Wiggins. I think the cost will be too much and they will remain at #5. I think they will select Aaron Gordon (Wiggins, Parker, Exum and Vonleh will be off the board). I don't think or hope they do not take Embiid too much risk.
I am 50/50 that the Jazz keep both picks or trade both #23 and #35 because they might need to use them to move up. I am pretty sure if they keep both of them one will be a stash it pick. Below are the people who are in play at 23.
#23- K.J. McDaniels, P.J. Hairston, James Young, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, CJ Wilcox, GRIII, Clint Capela
#35 - Inglis, Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, GRIII
5 year projection:
Embiid - could drop all the way from 7 to 10 in this draft. I think is health will be an issue and he will have a few good years and then go down with another injury. He is not worthy of a top 5 pick but I certainly will draft him if he was still there at 10 hoping I am wrong. I love the kid and hope he has a great career.
Wiggins: With the right team and coaching I think the sky is the limit for him. I have reservations about his personality not about his desire to be great. I think he will have several all-star games especially if he is drafted out East. However, if he stands around and observes the game he will be a big disappointment. He has to demand the ball and I think he will once he gets in the NBA. I think right now he is the number 1 guy and in the future I don't see him falling out of the top 3 in this draft class.
Parker: Love his offensive game. I think he is going to wish he wasn't draft by the Bucks. He is going to need to cut out the sweets improve his body and speed. If he does that then I see him with multiple all-stars and a go to guy on offense. I don't see him being anything better than an average defender at best. Parker has the best chance of busting due to his defense. I don't think he will bust but I think his defense will be a major issue unless he remakes his body. Overall I see him being a top 5 player in this draft.
Exum: I have no idea. He is a player that will make a GM look like a genius or a dumbass. Right now I think he will be better than I think he will be so I think he will be a solid pro with perhaps a one or two all-star appearances if he is in the East. Again people can say I told you so if I miss on this guy and it won't hurt my feelings at all.
Vonleh: I have my doubts on him. I just don't see the speed that the NBA requires. He seems to lack BB IQ and I think his shot at this point is overrated. I think the kid can play and will be a solid NBA player but I don't see star or even all-star career. I think he will put up 14 pts 10 rebound and give you a block or two per game. He struggled with fouling in college hopefully he will correct that. His passing is a concern too.
Aaron Gordon: I have been pretty clear this is my guy at #5. Some think it is too high and that might be true but I don't think he gets passed either Boston or LA. Now if the reports are that he has already improved his shot then I think Aaron has the chance to be a top 3 player in this draft. His FTs need to improve dramatically because if he can't then he will be nothing more than a 25 minute energy guy. I have faith that Gordon is going to work on his game. Why? I just love the kid's attitude. Gordon has the chance outside of Wiggins, Parker, healthy Embiid of being a star.
He has what Vonleh and even Wiggins to an extent lack. He has the personality to be great. The Jazz need a guy like this. A guy who wants to win at all cost and doesn't necessary need to have the ball in his hands all the time. Gordon will pass the ball to a teammate without thinking while Vonleh will hold onto to get his shot. Gordon is my pick at #5 unless Wiggins is available. I think Gordon is a little bit of a gamble but not as much as Vonleh or Exum.
Randle: hasn't gotten a lot of play on this board. I had kind of cooled on him mostly because of his defensive liability, foot issue and him forcing shots some times. However, I think Randle is going to move up the board as a top 4 player in this draft especially if he gets with the right team (Lakers). I think people forgot how Randle was doubled and tripled teamed in college and still was able to score. If I knew more about his foot, I would consider him with the 5th pick. If Gordon is gone or if the Jazz move down I would take him without thinking. I think he will be a 20pt 10rb guy in the NBA. I think he will have multiple all-star appearances if he stays healthy.
Top 5 guys- order could change yearly that is how close these guys are. Team selection will also have a bearing on their careers. Do they go to a team with a good fit.
Wiggins
Parker
Gordon
Randle
Exum
I think the Jazz will try to move up in the draft to pick Wiggins. I think the cost will be too much and they will remain at #5. I think they will select Aaron Gordon (Wiggins, Parker, Exum and Vonleh will be off the board). I don't think or hope they do not take Embiid too much risk.
I am 50/50 that the Jazz keep both picks or trade both #23 and #35 because they might need to use them to move up. I am pretty sure if they keep both of them one will be a stash it pick. Below are the people who are in play at 23.
#23- K.J. McDaniels, P.J. Hairston, James Young, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, CJ Wilcox, GRIII, Clint Capela
#35 - Inglis, Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, GRIII
5 year projection:
Embiid - could drop all the way from 7 to 10 in this draft. I think is health will be an issue and he will have a few good years and then go down with another injury. He is not worthy of a top 5 pick but I certainly will draft him if he was still there at 10 hoping I am wrong. I love the kid and hope he has a great career.
Wiggins: With the right team and coaching I think the sky is the limit for him. I have reservations about his personality not about his desire to be great. I think he will have several all-star games especially if he is drafted out East. However, if he stands around and observes the game he will be a big disappointment. He has to demand the ball and I think he will once he gets in the NBA. I think right now he is the number 1 guy and in the future I don't see him falling out of the top 3 in this draft class.
Parker: Love his offensive game. I think he is going to wish he wasn't draft by the Bucks. He is going to need to cut out the sweets improve his body and speed. If he does that then I see him with multiple all-stars and a go to guy on offense. I don't see him being anything better than an average defender at best. Parker has the best chance of busting due to his defense. I don't think he will bust but I think his defense will be a major issue unless he remakes his body. Overall I see him being a top 5 player in this draft.
Exum: I have no idea. He is a player that will make a GM look like a genius or a dumbass. Right now I think he will be better than I think he will be so I think he will be a solid pro with perhaps a one or two all-star appearances if he is in the East. Again people can say I told you so if I miss on this guy and it won't hurt my feelings at all.
Vonleh: I have my doubts on him. I just don't see the speed that the NBA requires. He seems to lack BB IQ and I think his shot at this point is overrated. I think the kid can play and will be a solid NBA player but I don't see star or even all-star career. I think he will put up 14 pts 10 rebound and give you a block or two per game. He struggled with fouling in college hopefully he will correct that. His passing is a concern too.
Aaron Gordon: I have been pretty clear this is my guy at #5. Some think it is too high and that might be true but I don't think he gets passed either Boston or LA. Now if the reports are that he has already improved his shot then I think Aaron has the chance to be a top 3 player in this draft. His FTs need to improve dramatically because if he can't then he will be nothing more than a 25 minute energy guy. I have faith that Gordon is going to work on his game. Why? I just love the kid's attitude. Gordon has the chance outside of Wiggins, Parker, healthy Embiid of being a star.
He has what Vonleh and even Wiggins to an extent lack. He has the personality to be great. The Jazz need a guy like this. A guy who wants to win at all cost and doesn't necessary need to have the ball in his hands all the time. Gordon will pass the ball to a teammate without thinking while Vonleh will hold onto to get his shot. Gordon is my pick at #5 unless Wiggins is available. I think Gordon is a little bit of a gamble but not as much as Vonleh or Exum.
Randle: hasn't gotten a lot of play on this board. I had kind of cooled on him mostly because of his defensive liability, foot issue and him forcing shots some times. However, I think Randle is going to move up the board as a top 4 player in this draft especially if he gets with the right team (Lakers). I think people forgot how Randle was doubled and tripled teamed in college and still was able to score. If I knew more about his foot, I would consider him with the 5th pick. If Gordon is gone or if the Jazz move down I would take him without thinking. I think he will be a 20pt 10rb guy in the NBA. I think he will have multiple all-star appearances if he stays healthy.
Top 5 guys- order could change yearly that is how close these guys are. Team selection will also have a bearing on their careers. Do they go to a team with a good fit.
Wiggins
Parker
Gordon
Randle
Exum
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♪alt13
Well-Known Member
Burke's value will drop after first game against Smart. Smart will go at him hard and shut him down. Smart will drop 20+ pts.
Smart will be a mid grade starting PG.
Vonleh is a bust
Embiid will never play 60 games in a season.
Gordon is top 3.
Exum is Lavine.
Randle decent tweener not quite sap but a starter.
Parker will become more efficient in years 2 & 3. His team will be a perennial playoff team.
Staukus(see Ugli's post)
Nurkic will be a srs low post threat off the bench but also a black hole and a bad starter. He's the kind of guy that can wear down better and more expensive bigs. A contender will make a play at him within a few years if not on draft night.
Wiggins It's up to him? Needs a coach that will push him.
Smart will be a mid grade starting PG.
Vonleh is a bust
Embiid will never play 60 games in a season.
Gordon is top 3.
Exum is Lavine.
Randle decent tweener not quite sap but a starter.
Parker will become more efficient in years 2 & 3. His team will be a perennial playoff team.
Staukus(see Ugli's post)
Nurkic will be a srs low post threat off the bench but also a black hole and a bad starter. He's the kind of guy that can wear down better and more expensive bigs. A contender will make a play at him within a few years if not on draft night.
Wiggins It's up to him? Needs a coach that will push him.
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Twin Towers
Well-Known Member
Again I could totally be wrong on the guy. but I don't like his shot and I think he is out of control going to the basket. And his playmaking skills are highly overrated. People are just obsessed with big PG's right now. Another fetish that will eventually die down in a few years.
QuinSnydersHair
Well-Known Member
I agree on most but not on Randle (he's gonna be good, perhaps an empty stats guy like Parker, but he'll score and rebound well) or Payton. I am a HUGE believer that players succeed at an insanely high level if their dad/mom played in the NBA or were elite athletes. Kobe, Thompson, Curry, Love, hell even Brewer and a guy like Mike Conley whose dad was an Olympic Gold medalist. The list goes on and on. These kids have been groomed their whole lives to be pros, work their tails off, learn the game, and maximize their abilities for the pro game. If Payton had glaring holes, I'd be scared. But he's got size, great athleticism, a good feel for the game, and so forth. I think he'll struggle a little early but 4-6 years from now be a very good point much like the aforementioned Mike Conley.
There are exceptions to this but in a league where 80% of the guys become nobodies, they're sort of rare.
stormkoopacv03
Well-Known Member
If trading up doesn't work, Jazz should just chill at 5 and take Embiid. Wasn't the Jazz number 1 goal was to get the top 3 talent in the draft? This will be a blessing if Embiid fall to 5th. Embiid, a player that was supposed to be the # 1 pick this year. This will be great for the jazz in the long term. Embiid, Favors, Kanter, Hayward and a reliable veteran. That's quite awesome if you ask me.
QuinSnydersHair
Well-Known Member
Two guys who I've heard no one really talk about are Tyler Ennis who's A+S/TO ratio was off the charts for anyone let alone for a frosh, as well Jarnell Stokes who metrics were sick at Tennessee. Obviously Ennis doesn't seem to make much sense and maybe Stokes does if he's there at #35 but these two guys are quite interesting.
I see this five years from now:
Embiid-Best player from this draft, hopefully we get him at #5
Exum-Next best player, he just reminds me of Kobe somehow.
Wiggins-Needs a surrounding cast to take the pressure off of him and he'll excel.
Parker-4th best player, never learns to defend but gets even better at shooting.
Stauskas-Sharpshooter extraordinaire, long career.
Randle-Borderline All-Star from his second year through his 15th year.
A. Gordon-Ends up being an energy player off the bench.
LaVine-Just coming into his own after five years.
McDermott-Solid from the start and possibly a starter by 2nd year, but nothing special.
Vonleh-With the right coaching ends up being pretty good, otherwise he fades away.
Embiid-Best player from this draft, hopefully we get him at #5
Exum-Next best player, he just reminds me of Kobe somehow.
Wiggins-Needs a surrounding cast to take the pressure off of him and he'll excel.
Parker-4th best player, never learns to defend but gets even better at shooting.
Stauskas-Sharpshooter extraordinaire, long career.
Randle-Borderline All-Star from his second year through his 15th year.
A. Gordon-Ends up being an energy player off the bench.
LaVine-Just coming into his own after five years.
McDermott-Solid from the start and possibly a starter by 2nd year, but nothing special.
Vonleh-With the right coaching ends up being pretty good, otherwise he fades away.
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