Omnibus Gordon Hayward Thread (To clean up the Board some)

[billyshelby]

lol, They did make the playoofs last year. Now they are looking to move up a couple slots and not be first round sweeps.

Doh. Well, at least I don't have to change my point

 

[yamers]

made the playoffs in one of the worst confrences in NBA history.

Actually if the jazz where in the east last season they would have been in the same slot. Maybe even around chicago area.

LOL

 

[yamers]

This is the funniest post in the history of Twitter.

gordon hayward and al jefferson would make a pretty sick combo

lol funny thing is that we saw it in utah hahaha and we didnt get better than 8th - 9th spot.

 

[yamers]

Johnny Ramirez ‏@DatBoyJohnny210 1m
If Gordon Hayward and Chris Bosh can get max contracts, I'm hopeful I can get a 10 day contract with some NBA team.

lmaoooooo ^^^^^

 

[SojoDave]

Your right Big Country Hayward could have signed a deal last year and he would probably have good feelings amongst Jazz fans. Instead, Gordon Kirelenko thought he would put up big numbers last year. Instead, Amare Hayward shot miserably and sulked most of the year. We'll see if Ben Gordon Hayward can live up to his contract.

 

[cowhide]

This is the time for the Jazz to get back at MJ. Let him have Hayward, a smart poker player knows when to fold his hand. If I were DL (I already think he has done this) I would have a back up plan either attempting to get Parsons for a cheaper price or Ariza or Deng. Sign one of them and then call Hayward say nice poker playing enjoy Charlotte.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

By showing his hand early, I'm not sure how Lindsey can win this game. He's either going to match an overpriced offer for Hayward or, he won't match the offer and make himself a liar.

Liar? Did he ever comment publicly that he would match any offer or have we just been relying on reports to that effect?

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The case for paying Gordon Hayward the MAX:

Maximum contracts under the 2011 CBA are much less crippling than under the previous deal. First of all, the maximum raises that a player can receive in free agency are 4.5% instead of 7.5%. The Jazz still have the Bird Right option of giving Hayward 7.5%, but the market cannot force them to do so. The 4.5% is not compounding, so there’s a good chance the revenue increases –which are compounding—outpace a 4.5% raise.


Modern Salary Cap History:

During the 16 year period of the 2000 season up to this coming one, the salary cap has increased from $34,000,000 to $63,600,000. That’s 87%, or average annual raises of 3.99%. This is a conservative baseline estimate to use for four reasons*. First, going back to 1990 saw average annual raises of 7.46%. Second, the 2011 CBA significantly reduced the player’s share of Basketball Related Income (BRI) from 57% to 51.15%. This 10.26% reduction in player compensation (57-51.15 / 57) effectively froze the salary cap for a few years until it was fully priced in. If we base the salary cap on the previous CBA, the cap this season would increase from $63.6 million to $70.87 million. Adjusting our annual baseline raise calculation based on this normalized number, we have a 4.7% compound annual salary cap increase. This is not a wonky adjustment as the cap is based on projected revenue increases, and a 4.7% salary increase is a 4.7% increase no matter how large or small a share of that goes to the players.
Third, this 16 year period saw a severe recession reverse revenues from what has otherwise been a constant upward march for 3 straight decades. From the 2009 to 2010 seasons, projected revenue dropped by 1.6% instead of growing at our calculated 4.7%. Adjusting our baseline up again to smooth out this 6.3% differential, we come up with roughly 4.9% annual cap increases.
Fourth, television ratings have been on an upward trend for the league, and the upcoming new TV deal is expected to follow the trend that MLB and NCAA football has experienced. The league is expecting a big boom in revenues from that stream. I’m not going to speculate much here, but widely circulated reports suggest we can add at least another full 1% to our adjusted baseline, if not approach that magical 7% revenue increase area. I’m going to put in a 1% assumption on the increase for our purposes here, as that’s likely very “in the ballpark” of what NBA teams are using in their own baseline, best case, and worst case projections.


5.9%** vs 4.5%:

Because the cap increases are compound and max salary increases are not, the expected increase differential over the final three year period of a Hayward contract is a 13.5% raise for Hayward and a 18.8% raise for the cap. That takes a small, but not meaningless 5.3% sting out of the annual Hayward raises.


Let’s put some numbers on it:

Due to various different calculation adjustments to the 2005 and 2011 CBAs, Hayward is eligible for an estimated maximum first year salary of $14.976 million, and fourth year salary of $16.998 million. Both those numbers are huge in the 2013-2014 season, but they’re not all that bad in the 2017-2018 jackass–on-the-internet-estimated season. Revenue based on 5.9% raises will go up from $63.6 million to 75.53 million, putting Hayward’s pay at roughly 22.49% of the cap. Based on the 2013-2014 cap, that’s equivalent to a salary of $13.2 million. That would have been a very manageable, very tradable contract last season. Give Hayward a few more years of refinement and the Jazz will have no problem getting rid of guy who has given every indication of being a first class teammate and citizen. This is not a Rudy Gay, Andrei Kirilenko, or Hedo Turkoglu situation.


You may not agree with the number, but this is the analysis that NBA front offices are putting on the Hayward question, and the reason he’s going to get a contract that will turn the entire Jazz blogosphere into characters from Space Balls. And I haven't even mentioned the new ability of small market teams to overpay up into the luxury tax. The Jazz, and everyone else, is adding that into their calculations as well.


*5 – Higher salary gives better trading latitude four years down the line. 150% of $17 million can fetch the Jazz a better contract in return than 150% of 13 million.

*6 – The Jazz have to spend the money anyway, and cannot afford to lose assets for nothing. There are no free agents in this class that are attainable by the Jazz who are worth more than Hayward. Plenty of teams have plenty of cap space, and nobody is currently rumored to be offering much in facilitating trades. If anything, the cap spacers are lining up to take guys like Jeremy Lin off your hands (Philly).

*7 – The Jazz need to not improve for a while. The draft is their best shot at bringing in contender talent. A very tradeable contract like Hayward and draft picks is their second best. Might as well maximize the trading latitude if it’s not toxic, and this one is not.

**You may think the projections are hoaky, but the GM’s across the league are considering these calculations into their decisions. Besides, cut them down a couple % and you still have a very serviceable, tradable contract.

#NoMediocrity

 

[mellow]

I understand that as a new boss Lindsey gets a grace period to implement his programs and bring in his people and then some time to see how his people and systems develop. But I don't understand how, for some, he has taken on a mystical status, standing beyond reproach. It is not blaspheme or heresy to critique the job he has done.

I'd grade him at a C, maybe C- so far. Hope he catches up soon.

 

[GVC]

Probably worth pointing out that the Celtics just landed a 1st, Marcus Thornton (expiring) and Tyler Zeller (cheap, option can be declined(?)) for cap space.

 

[kabenac]

Anyone who lets Delonte West stick a finger in his ear and call him a mean name DOES NOT DESERVE MAX MONEY.

EDIT: Sojodave beat me to this argument so he gets repped.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

I understand that as a new boss Lindsey gets a grace period to implement his programs and bring in his people and then some time to see how his people and systems develop. But I don't understand how, for some, he has taken on a mystical status, standing beyond reproach. It is not blaspheme or heresy to critique the job he has done.

I'd grade him at a C, maybe C- so far. Hope he catches up soon.

Explain, why C, C-? Not complaining just curious.


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[akirac73]

I understand that as a new boss Lindsey gets a grace period to implement his programs and bring in his people and then some time to see how his people and systems develop. But I don't understand how, for some, he has taken on a mystical status, standing beyond reproach. It is not blaspheme or heresy to critique the job he has done.

I'd grade him at a C, maybe C- so far. Hope he catches up soon.

I feel the same way about Gordon Hayward as well. For some reason he has a cult-like following and has scores of fans continually making excuses and convincing themselves that he should be paid max money. He's been with the Jazz longer than Lindsey, hasn't done anything outstanding as a player, still hasn't proven to be a star in this league, yet he has reached mythical status.

 

[GVC]

Explain, why C, C-? Not complaining just curious.


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He started with a playoff team with decent assets. The Jazz are young now, but the team is far worse, and it's not clear if the players/picks on the team now are worth more than the players/picks DL inherited.

 

[colton]

By showing his hand early, I'm not sure how Lindsey can win this game. He's either going to match an overpriced offer for Hayward or, he won't match the offer and make himself a liar.

I know DL is widely rumored to have said they'd match anything, but I don't think I've actually ever seen a direct quote. Have you?

 

[AlaskanAssassin]

I believe DL is smart enough to walk away.

I believe DL is a General Manager in the NBA because he is very smart, and he will of course match the offer. You can't let an asset walk away without someone to replace him or getting something valuable in return.

 

[colton]

Liar? Did he ever comment publicly that he would match any offer or have we just been relying on reports to that effect?

Heh, I guess you beat me to it.

 

[colton]

I believe DL is a General Manager in the NBA because he is very smart, and he will of course match the offer. You can't let an asset walk away without someone to replace him or getting something valuable in return.

Really? I thought the mark of a smart GM was not signing players for far more than they are worth.

 

[mellow]

I believe DL is a General Manager in the NBA because he is very smart, and he will of course match the offer. You can't let an asset walk away without someone to replace him or getting something valuable in return.

 

[GVC]

DL has effectively traded:

Millsap, Jefferson, Marvin, Mo, Carroll, Foye, 2013 #21 pick, 2013 #14 pick, 2013 #46 pick, 2014 #35 pick

for:

Burke, Hood, Gobert, moving up ~10 spots in the 2014 draft (Exum), a 2017 1st-Round pick (from GSW) and a 2016 2nd-Round pick


Are the Jazz any closer to contention now than they were 2 years ago? Is the current collection of assets clearly better than the collection of assets DL inherited?