Just to let you know... casinos are taking notice of our pre-season play and are adjusting their money-lines. Before yesterday's game Bovada had the line at 24.5 and today it's 25.5, I expect it to rise even more before the start of the season.
over under on jazz 23.5. should i put the house down?
- Thread starter DutchJazzer
- Start date
DutchJazzer
Banned
thats because they used advance statistics methods in combination with exoers
problem is sometimes those calculations get screwed up eg when jazz where supposed to have worst record but finished 500.
also lots of these players their stats are skewed imho due to corbins system.
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
Yes they give proof, but not in a way I can post to a message board....
How does the house win either way? They need to have equal bets on the over and the under to guarantee they win no matter what.
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
Say you were to put a bet in at a casino, they take your money and give you a ticket as proof. When you do it locally USUALLY its on credit. So you place a bet, and unless you lose you don't pay anything. Which is how I usually do it. This time however the bet was so large and so far out that they required payment up front. Which I'm fine with since thats how a casino would do it as well.
No, I don't think that was me, but it could have been. I know a lot of people who have put a whole lot more then 13K on the over this year...
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
Its not that they are taking notice of how we are playing. The people placing the bets have noticed how we are playing and are heavily betting the over which is causing the casino to change the line to try and get people to start betting the under. Remember, a casino wants equal bets on either side of the line. They are also not setting the line where they think a team will actually finish, they are setting the line where they think the gambles think they will finish.
I think there's 0.00001% chacne that Quin wins COY. Look at recent winners. ALways playoff squads that are either consistent in meeting expectations due to good coaching. The other is a team that vastly improved and played themselves into contention status.
Since the Jazz won't be in the playoffs, the overachieving aspect will go unnoticed.
Since the Jazz won't be in the playoffs, the overachieving aspect will go unnoticed.
DutchJazzer
Banned
it evens out. because they have over under on all the teams.
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
I'm certain that the casino would not be offering the bet if they weren't getting the money on the other side of the equation to cover the loss and protect their profit. Remember that they don't necessarily even have to get people to bet the under on the Jazz line in order to do this. There are only so many victories to go around the entire league for the season. I'm sure their egghead mathematicians work it out so that their is virtually no risk to the house, and a whole lot of profit due to the 30% they collect from all the losers.
It's simpler than that. They slide the line far enough in either direction to even out the bets on both sides. They'd take it to 82 wins or losses if needs be. The trick is setting the initial line close enough to 50-50, then feathering the book as it comes in.
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
You are kind of right, but not really. Not all the over/unders are -130 though. For example, the Jazz UNDER 23.5 wins is ev, meaning equal value, or equal money. So you risk $1 to win $1. And if they Jazz do hit the over then the Casino doesn't collect any of that 30% "fee", they only collect the money that the people who bet the under had, which did not have a "fee."
Some people misunderstand the 30% "fee" that isn't a fee at all. That isn't collected regardless, its only if the player loses. For example say you place two $100 bets at -130, and you win one and lose won. You'd end up $-30 total because the $30 was only collected on your one loss, not your one win. Its not complicated by any means but for people who have never bet on sports its a tiny bit confusing at first.
DutchJazzer, you are right in terms of a big casino, but not necessarily a local guy taking the action, which is what I was talking about. They are not going to have the huge volume on each side. They can easily have a lot of action heavily on one side that can either make or break them.
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
I don't if thats the case. But its pretty small potatoes for him so i'm not worried, or else i wouldn't have placed it.
So you're not the breaking kneecaps and snipping off fingers type?
I thought that's the bookie's job...
LjJazzman
Well-Known Member
I'm more of the the kind to just whine and say "come on..." And so is he.
Lakers_Slapper
Well-Known Member
I live in Vegas and will accept all monies.
I live in Vegas as well, nice to know that there are two jazz fanz here.
3 Point %'s:
Burke is 9 for 18 for 50%
Hood is 2 for 3 for 66%
Hayward is 5 for 7 for 71%
Exum is 4 for 9 for 44%
Booker is 2 for 5 for 40%
Even if those 5 guys shoot close to 40% on average at that volume then the Jazz will win a lot more than 23.5 games.
Yes I know...preseason, teams not trying, only 3 games...
But you know what? Bite me and jump in! The Kool-aid is great!
Burke is 9 for 18 for 50%
Hood is 2 for 3 for 66%
Hayward is 5 for 7 for 71%
Exum is 4 for 9 for 44%
Booker is 2 for 5 for 40%
Even if those 5 guys shoot close to 40% on average at that volume then the Jazz will win a lot more than 23.5 games.
Yes I know...preseason, teams not trying, only 3 games...
But you know what? Bite me and jump in! The Kool-aid is great!
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
The weather is here. I wish you were beautiful.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Those percentages may not continue, but I found Quin's comment on there being a 7% difference between open and contested shots VERY interesting. It works both ways: Jazz obviously need to contest their opponents' shots. But also, if the ball movement on offense can create more open shots, Jazz could improve from near the bottom of the league to top-15 in FG%. And that DOES lead to more wins.
I'm not big on Kool-aid, though. Can I drink Gatorade instead?