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Anyone invested in the market

banjamin said:
Also, Viny, I wouldn't touch oil with a ten foot pole and haven't since 2008. This plunge was inevitable in my past view, and will have a long time to play out. This part of the cycle isn't going to be helped by an aging population that will continue driving less and less as they retire.

The majors might be able to acquire on the cheap, however.
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This thread has me re-thinking this opinion before waiting to see the robins come out. I'm been bearish on oil so long it's hard to jump in before the capitulation shakes everyone else out. I was sure of two things:

1. Oil would get closer to $40 before bouncing.

2. IEO (oil producer and refining index) will outperform the S&P sometime over the next 10 years.

Looks like I was wrong on 1. #2 is still as safe a bet as you can make. Something interesting I read a month back from the CEO of Pioneer was the difference between $80 oil and $60 oil was something like increasing production only 500% instead of 100% over the next 10 years.
 
Did y'all see OPEC's secretary general say oil would be at $200 a barrel in the aftermath of all this?
 
Checked out LINE today. Holy **** those 3 way hedges are going to dumptruck their investors. Am I using dumptruck correctly?
 
PKM said:
Continue.. please. Forreal.
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They were selling a $71/bbl floor, about 50% of oil production, as hedged back in December. They look at a glance as much more of a nat gas play, and tbh in this rig shutting environment that might be a huge boon to nat gas companies since the decline rate is unreal quick IIRC (another free investigation tip), but they've hedged nat gas production 100% and will get zero benefit from any gas price increase from current wells, and they're cutting capex as fast as any so they won't be bringing new production on to benefit from a possible spike.

It's not a short candidate at this point with a 66% decline and 10% dividend to pay out during the wait. If you can find out how to control a potential debt bankruptcy and wipe out equity holders then let me know.
 
franklin said:
They were selling a $71/bbl floor, about 50% of oil production, as hedged back in December. They look at a glance as much more of a nat gas play, and tbh in this rig shutting environment that might be a huge boon to nat gas companies since the decline rate is unreal quick IIRC (another free investigation tip), but they've hedged nat gas production 100% and will get zero benefit from any gas price increase from current wells, and they're cutting capex as fast as any so they won't be bringing new production on to benefit from a possible spike.

It's not a short candidate at this point with a 66% decline and 10% dividend to pay out during the wait. If you can find out how to control a potential debt bankruptcy and wipe out equity holders then let me know.
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Interesting. Id never heard of three way hedges before. Thanks for the overview!
 
franklin said:
They were selling a $71/bbl floor, about 50% of oil production, as hedged back in December. They look at a glance as much more of a nat gas play, and tbh in this rig shutting environment that might be a huge boon to nat gas companies since the decline rate is unreal quick IIRC (another free investigation tip), but they've hedged nat gas production 100% and will get zero benefit from any gas price increase from current wells, and they're cutting capex as fast as any so they won't be bringing new production on to benefit from a possible spike.

It's not a short candidate at this point with a 66% decline and 10% dividend to pay out during the wait. If you can find out how to control a potential debt bankruptcy and wipe out equity holders then let me know.
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shameless tag to post later
 
PKM said:
shameless tag to post later
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Just wondering.

PK, did you lose your shirt in the shakeout?

Anybody ever heered of a gas war, evar?

That where a company with some cash decides to sink the price of gas deep enough their competition goes belly up. Then buy the production assets pennies on the dollar, and take them off line Standard Oil style, and maybe even just buy foreign resources and earn your money on the import markup. . . . use other people's oil first.

Almost as good as being a pump and dump operator.

Pretty sure Peeks is not livin' in a shepherd's wagon out on the Strip.
 
fishonjazz said:
I don't think the market is mature.

2 out of 50 states being legalized tells me that there is alot of room for the market to grow. (about 48 states worth of room for growth)
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weed is a peak product. It can grow anywhere, by anybody, under lamps or in the woods where the snow drifts last nine months.

NObody's got a patent, and the customers don't care about brands. Most importantly, it's users die off young without even ever being "good". Anyone who uses it a lot will turn into a bum and have to go back to mama's basement and beg for a little loose change under the overpass.

It's a loser's culture. Yeah, alcohol creates bums too, but like a good virus or disease, it gets transmissible while not yet fatal. Churches use the stuff for sacrament, and it's a healthy substitute for "runny" water. Weed wipes out whole countries if the folks just fail to despise and persecute users.

We're about 30% from going extinct, or from weed going to 1% market share, the idiots-only user level. We haven't decided which way we will go yet. It is to be hoped that by destroying the pop-cultural, cool illegal mythologies that have given it its subcultural base since the sixties, it will go back to the idiots-only level like in the nineteen twenties, when those "hayseed" rednecks were the only users, and they could hardly pull their overalls up long enough to brew a batch of corn. All it took to put the stills on the map was a stupid federal law and a bunch of even stupider federal agents combing the woods tracking down copper tubing. With that "reality" in place, those rednecks hardly even cared about weed.
 
babe said:
weed is a peak product. It can grow anywhere, by anybody, under lamps or in the woods where the snow drifts last nine months.

NObody's got a patent, and the customers don't care about brands. Most importantly, it's users die off young without even ever being "good". Anyone who uses it a lot will turn into a bum and have to go back to mama's basement and beg for a little loose change under the overpass.

It's a loser's culture. Yeah, alcohol creates bums too, but like a good virus or disease, it gets transmissible while not yet fatal. Churches use the stuff for sacrament, and it's a healthy substitute for "runny" water. Weed wipes out whole countries if the folks just fail to despise and persecute users.

We're about 30% from going extinct, or from weed going to 1% market share, the idiots-only user level. We haven't decided which way we will go yet. It is to be hoped that by destroying the pop-cultural, cool illegal mythologies that have given it its subcultural base since the sixties, it will go back to the idiots-only level like in the nineteen twenties, when those "hayseed" rednecks were the only users, and they could hardly pull their overalls up long enough to brew a batch of corn. All it took to put the stills on the map was a stupid federal law and a bunch of even stupider federal agents combing the woods tracking down copper tubing. With that "reality" in place, those rednecks hardly even cared about weed.
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What? I think you have weed confused with heroin. Why do you think that weed is more lethal than alcohol?

Also weed like everything else is brandable. If weed were just as legal as tobacco you would have the same kinds of giant brands. If it becomes legal across the US Phillip Morris will get into the game and they will make a lot of money doing it.
 
babe said:
Anyone who uses it a lot will turn into a bum and have to go back to mama's basement and beg for a little loose change under the overpass.
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One of the stupidest things I have ever read on this forum.

You obviously know very little about this subject
 
heyhey said:
What? I think you have weed confused with heroin. Why do you think that weed is more lethal than alcohol?

Also weed like everything else is brandable. If weed were just as legal as tobacco you would have the same kinds of giant brands. If it becomes legal across the US Phillip Morris will get into the game and they will make a lot of money doing it.
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I probably don't know every weeder in town, but the ones who come to my attention are dying fast and hard. They don't go from being well-bathed applicants then renters with jobs and good references, even long-term prompt-payers to flops lying in a pile of excrement overnight, but after I evict them they probably live under the overpass and maybe have a life expectancy of two years.

I dunno. Pacific Garden Mission might pick up a few and turn them around.

So here's a question of critical reasoning, if you're doin' weed.

ya think it helps make you intellectually sharp and better able to follow the implications of reason?


case closed.
 
Babe going full retard
 
fishonjazz said:
One of the stupidest things I have ever read on this forum.

You obviously know very little about this subject
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obviously, I've flushed a pigeon outta the thicket, again.

lessee, this argument will last until fish does his flop, or quits and gets outta the fumes.
 
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