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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

That kind of blows my mind
I’m pretty out on him. He feels really risky to me.
Basically, I want the Jazz to take the No. 1 pick and bring in Cooper Flagg. Even if they're unlucky, they're okay with the No. 4 pick. Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, and VJ Edgecomb fit Utah's current lineup. But what if they take the No. 5 pick? In that case, would the Jazz rather try to move down for another pick in '26 and Igor Demin?
Tre Johnson. My gut tells me the nba is underestimating him
 
I just went through the draft and made my best case against Kas for as many players as I could. I got to 11, and had to really stretch my imagination on a few. I think you have overcorrected.

I think there's some recency bias that may be causing some overcorrection. If it was level of competition thing like Demin it would cause me more concern, but his play against top 50 opponents is in line with his overall numbers. The main guys I'm comparing him to are Tre and Fears. Out of those guys, I believe he's the best defender (still not great), the best passer, and he is the most efficient scorer.
 
I came away feeling the exact opposite. His off the ball movement is elite for his age and will run defenders ragged. Add in his ability to create off the dribble and you have a very rare combo.

Did you watch the full video? He's a limited offensive player (can only shoot/can't create advantages/limited in passing/playmaking) and AT BEST a passable defender (meaning he's likely going to be worse than that). That doesn't sound that exciting to me.

Like I said, it's nothing new. Anybody who watched him this year would come away with the same conclusions, but just putting it all together in one video from someone who I really trust as an evaluator was a little deflating for a player I think has a decent chance of being on the Jazz next year.

His shot making is incredible and the offensive load he took on in the conference he played in was incredible, he also has a great NBA body and I think for all of that he deserves to be in discussions at 3. And like I've said, if he the Jazz take him I'll hope that with experience he can improve on the things that he struggled with this year.

I think for me it's really just the defense that I'm really struggling with Tre. I witnessed a few of the games where he was Jimmer level bad at defense. It really turned me off. Now I also saw a game (mentioned it in this thread somewhere) where he was actually pretty good. It was only one game, but if we draft him, I'll hold on to the hope he can play like that.
 
I think there's some recency bias that may be causing some overcorrection. If it was level of competition thing like Demin it would cause me more concern, but his play against top 50 opponents is in line with his overall numbers. The main guys I'm comparing him to are Tre and Fears. Out of those guys, I believe he's the best defender (still not great), the best passer, and he is the most efficient scorer.

Tre and Fears are on different levels as scorers than Kas, so it probably evens out. I probably overrate Kas because I like his player type way more than the others. As an amateur draft analysis I'm fine with overrating the player types I like though.

I would probably say that Tre is in a different tier as a prospect than Kas/Fears, but because I like Kas's player type way more, I put him in the same tier and I'm still struggling who I like better. Fears is probably in the same tier as Kas, but again, because I like Kas's player type I will always have him above Fears.

To each their own though. I'm ok if I end up being wrong about this stuff.
 
I get the idea behind “don’t overthink it”….but I also don’t think it should really be used as a shield for everything. It doesn’t take much thinking to see flaws with Tre. If you value things besides shooting/scoring, they will be front and center.
here's the problem with that. it doesn't take much thinking to see flaws with any prospect in the draft - perhaps with the exception of Flagg. people just tend to focus more on the flaws of players they don't like vs those they do like. tale as old as time.

that's exactly why we should be careful overthinking a freshman who dropped 20 ppg on good efficiency in the toughest league in cbb. especially when he's being discussed in that 4-6 range. if he were being talked about in that 2/3 range, that might be another story. iow, if they all have major flaws, i'm okay just being happy getting arguably the best shooter/scorer in the draft at #5.
 
here's the problem with that. it doesn't take much thinking to see flaws with any prospect in the draft - perhaps with the exception of Flagg. people just tend to focus more on the flaws of players they don't like vs those they do like. tale as old as time.

that's exactly why we should be careful overthinking a freshman who dropped 20 ppg on good efficiency in the toughest league in cbb. especially when he's being discussed in that 4-6 range. if he were being talked about in that 2/3 range, that might be another story. iow, if they all have major flaws, i'm okay just being happy getting arguably the best shooter/scorer in the draft at #5.

Just like not all strengths are created equal, not all weaknesses are created equal. If people have more tolerances for certain weaknesses vs other, I don't have a problem with that.

Also, the nuances of the draft are what make it fun to discuss.
 
Did you watch the full video? He's a limited offensive player (can only shoot/can't create advantages/limited in passing/playmaking) and AT BEST a passable defender (meaning he's likely going to be worse than that). That doesn't sound that exciting to me.

Like I said, it's nothing new. Anybody who watched him this year would come away with the same conclusions, but just putting it all together in one video from someone who I really trust as an evaluator was a little deflating for a player I think has a decent chance of being on the Jazz next year.

His shot making is incredible and the offensive load he took on in the conference he played in was incredible, he also has a great NBA body and I think for all of that he deserves to be in discussions at 3. And like I've said, if he the Jazz take him I'll hope that with experience he can improve on the things that he struggled with this year.

I think for me it's really just the defense that I'm really struggling with Tre. I witnessed a few of the games where he was Jimmer level bad at defense. It really turned me off. Now I also saw a game (mentioned it in this thread somewhere) where he was actually pretty good. It was only one game, but if we draft him, I'll hold on to the hope he can play like that.
My biggest contention is that I think Tre is a good passer. I think he averaged like 3.5 assist per game in his last 15 or something like that. Texas's offense was just so iso/my turn your turn heavy he couldnt always show it.
 
I guess Tre's weaknesses dont worry me too much.

He has the size to at least be average on defense as a guy you hide on bad players.

Despite not being great at getting to the rim/finishing, he has a respectable FTR. I also think the Texas offense just wasnt conducive to him getting in the paint at a high rate w/ good looks.
 
Tre and Fears are on different levels as scorers than Kas, so it probably evens out. I probably overrate Kas because I like his player type way more than the others. As an amateur draft analysis I'm fine with overrating the player types I like though.

I would probably say that Tre is in a different tier as a prospect than Kas/Fears, but because I like Kas's player type way more, I put him in the same tier and I'm still struggling who I like better. Fears is probably in the same tier as Kas, but again, because I like Kas's player type I will always have him above Fears.

To each their own though. I'm ok if I end up being wrong about this stuff.

I have a preference for Kas’s archetype as well. Generally, i’d just say I’m more skeptical of Tre’s archetype. He’s a great shooter/scorer, but I don’t like much else when it comes to scoring, I also prefer the guys who get the efficient shots more than the guys who make a lot of inefficient shots. Getting to the rim and free throw line is huge for me because it’s an extremely tough living in the NBA if you can’t get to them.

I like the way Fears and Kas play a lot. I give the edge to Kas because his shot is much more believable and I think he provides more energy on defense and is a better little things guy.
 
here's the problem with that. it doesn't take much thinking to see flaws with any prospect in the draft - perhaps with the exception of Flagg. people just tend to focus more on the flaws of players they don't like vs those they do like. tale as old as time.

that's exactly why we should be careful overthinking a freshman who dropped 20 ppg on good efficiency in the toughest league in cbb. especially when he's being discussed in that 4-6 range. if he were being talked about in that 2/3 range, that might be another story. iow, if they all have major flaws, i'm okay just being happy getting arguably the best shooter/scorer in the draft at #5.

I think that’s the flaw in “don’t overthink it”. It is true that you can find flaws in any player. But there isn’t a set of strengths and weaknesses that qualify as overthinking it and ones that do not. Everyone has their preferences and player types they are drawn to and that’s fine. I think the discussion should be centered around why certain strengths and weaknesses are more important instead of dismissing other thought patterns as “overthinking it”.
 
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