2019 trade deadline discussion

[LoPo]

Or you try both offseasons. Like I have been saying (and what the Jazz are doing..)

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Or you try both offseasons. Like I have been saying (and what the Jazz are doing..)

We have two bites at the apple. I wonder what Rubio's long term future is and I'm fairly sure Favs understands we may have better options we want to pursue.

If Exum busts out and Rubio is inconsistent we may not keep him, but we could waive his cap hold without too much danger of a team paying him and stealing him away imo. If Rubio is really good then we may not need a major FA addition tbh. We need to maintain flexibility though... the league is in a constant state of flux. I'm 50-70% sure KD goes back to GS... but there is a real chance he bows out to the social/nba pressure to "have his own team". If the Warriors breakup (a little at least) then I think we could be right there in line. May not need a Klay... a Middleton might do.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

We aren't guaranteed to lose either guy... Favs has a later guarantee date... so you just wait. Ricky likes it here and may wait for us unless a huge offer comes along.

Your plan isn't awful either... but you wouldn't do it now... you'd wait until midseason to see how Ricky and Favs look. Unless they are killing it though you maintain flexibility.

 

[MDAV28]

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

Yep. You shoot for the big star and if not, guess what you get to keep Favors! (I think you can keep Ricky regardless, all you would have to do is trade Crowder into space probably).

I feel like you think just going after a star requires losing our guys. It doesn't, that's the beauty of it. Getting rid of that flexibility gets you nowhere except completely out of the running for a star FA.

Salary dumps are just dump for where we are as a franchise. We are good, let's try our hand at adding stars.

 

[LoPo]

We aren't guaranteed to lose either guy... Favs has a later guarantee date... so you just wait. Ricky likes it here and may wait for us unless a huge offer comes along.

Your plan isn't awful either... but you wouldn't do it now... you'd wait until midseason to see how Ricky and Favs look. Unless they are killing it though you maintain flexibility.

I get the logic you guys are using, but I simply do not believe that what I am proposing will be available mid-season. If you offered Burks to NY right now for Courtney Lee and a 1st, I am very confident we will get something done. NY is absolutely set on pursuing massive free agents next summer. Let's play on that ambition by picking up what could be a top 8 pick this coming draft. Even if we just pick swap a couple times, we could be looking at a top end lottery pick in 2019 just for paying a pretty decent Courtney Lee the next two years.

I don't think a single Jazz fan would regret having a good draft pick even if it costs us a shot at Tobias Harris. Most Jazz fans would be happy with one more year of Favors plus a lottery pick. And if we really wanted Tobias Harris that badly, couldn't we use the NY pick at this coming deadline to get the deal done if it looks like he's leaving?

 

[MDAV28]

We have two bites at the apple. I wonder what Rubio's long term future is and I'm fairly sure Favs understands we may have better options we want to pursue.

If Exum busts out and Rubio is inconsistent we may not keep him, but we could waive his cap hold without too much danger of a team paying him and stealing him away imo. If Rubio is really good then we may not need a major FA addition tbh. We need to maintain flexibility though... the league is in a constant state of flux. I'm 50-70% sure KD goes back to GS... but there is a real chance he bows out to the social/nba pressure to "have his own team". If the Warriors breakup (a little at least) then I think we could be right there in line. May not need a Klay... a Middleton might do.

We had 3 bites. We have 2 more. It doesn't make sense to take one of our bites away.

 

[MDAV28]

I get the logic you guys are using, but I simply do not believe that what I am proposing will be available mid-season. If you offered Burks to NY right now for Courtney Lee and a 1st, I am very confident we will get something done. NY is absolutely set on pursuing massive free agents next summer. Let's play on that ambition by picking up what could be a top 8 pick this coming draft. Even if we just pick swap a couple times, we could be looking at a top end lottery pick in 2019 just for paying a pretty decent Courtney Lee the next two years.

I don't think a single Jazz fan would regret having a good draft pick even if it costs us a shot at Tobias Harris. Most Jazz fans would be happy with one more year of Favors plus a lottery pick. And if we really wanted Tobias Harris that badly, couldn't we use the NY pick at this coming deadline to get the deal done if it looks like he's leaving?

It's not Tobias Harris I'm afraid of losing. i don't even think the Jazz sign him if he's available to leave space open for 2020. It's a shot at the BIG FREE AGENTS. It doesn't matter if you don't think it'll happen, you're guaranteeing it doesn't happen if you completely take yourself out of the running.

You shoot for the superstars. That's how you win.

 

[LoPo]

Yep. You shoot for the big star

Who?

We have a better chance of trading for a big star by having an additional 1st round pick than we do crossing our fingers and just hoping we get one of the few massive free agents in 2019 to come our way. We ain't getting KD, Kawhi, Klay or Butler next summer. Nobody else is worth the effort to hope for.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yep. You shoot for the big star and if not, guess what you get to keep Favors! (I think you can keep Ricky regardless, all you would have to do is trade Crowder into space probably).

I feel like you think just going after a star requires losing our guys. It doesn't, that's the beauty of it. Getting rid of that flexibility gets you nowhere except completely out of the running for a star FA.

Salary dumps are just dump for where we are as a franchise. We are good, let's try our hand at adding stars.

Ricky will have to be damn good for a team to offer big money for him... PG is saturated and he is unique and may not fit well with every system. If he is damn good then our team will be phenomenal. Keep his caphold test the market and move Crowder into space if a superstar says yes (exum could also be moved into someone's space).

We need to take this to the buzzer to see what we have and what is real. Maybe Favs does shoot 35% from 3 and Ricky continues his hot streak and Exum plays up to his initial potential. We could still run it back. I also think with so many teams that have space that many teams won't pony up a first for space.

I was not a caaaakkk bakkker, but now is the time to bake the cake and keep the powder dry. Every championship building strategy is a low probability strategy... so chances are low that Klay comes here, but chances are also low that a first round pick provides a ton of value. We have a ton of replacement value guys and good players... we need to replace some with all star type talent now... FA is one avenue to do it.

 

[MDAV28]

Who?

We have a better chance of trading for a big star by having an additional 1st round pick than we do crossing our fingers and just hoping we get one of the few massive free agents in 2019 to come our way. We ain't getting KD, Kawhi, Klay or Butler next summer. Nobody else is worth the effort to hope for.

No we absolutely do not have a better chance that route. We cannot beat Boston, Philly, Lakers in a deal for a star, especially with a middling pick. It's the hard truth.

Like I said it doesn't matter if you don't think it will happen. There's a possibility and you completely take it away by getting rid of your flexibility for a middling asset.

 

[TheStormofWar]

No we absolutely do not. We cannot beat Boston, Philly, Lakers in a deal for a star, especially with a middling pick. It's the hard truth.

It actually depends on what the club dealing wants. We actually do have a ton of above-average role players on reasonable contracts, some of those expiring, some good young talent at deep positions, and all our picks in the future. Could be a star-glut and they need to deal to build depth or just looking to dump cap and want young talent w/ expirings. Granted, Utah doesn't have a lot of aces, but we do have a good hand.

 

[MDAV28]

Ricky will have to be damn good for a team to offer big money for him... PG is saturated and he is unique and may not fit well with every system. If he is damn good then our team will be phenomenal. Keep his caphold test the market and move Crowder into space if a superstar says yes (exum could also be moved into someone's space).

We need to take this to the buzzer to see what we have and what is real. Maybe Favs does shoot 35% from 3 and Ricky continues his hot streak and Exum plays up to his initial potential. We could still run it back. I also think with so many teams that have space that many teams won't pony up a first for space.

I was not a caaaakkk bakkker, but now is the time to bake the cake and keep the powder dry. Every championship building strategy is a low probability strategy... so chances are low that Klay comes here, but chances are also low that a first round pick provides a ton of value. We have a ton of replacement value guys and good players... we need to replace some with all star type talent now... FA is one avenue to do it.

This is exactly why I just don't get the salary dump idea at all.

Plan A sign a star
Plan B retain the (already good) core

It's simple and straightforward. Don't mess with it. Jazz are in a great spot.

 

[MDAV28]

It actually depends on what the club dealing wants. We actually do have a ton of above-average role players on reasonable contracts, some of those expiring, some good young talent at deep positions, and all our picks in the future. Could be a star-glut and they need to deal to build depth or just looking to dump cap and want young talent w/ expirings. Granted, Utah doesn't have a lot of aces, but we do have a good hand.

The others teams have lots of aces is the problem. Especially Boston. Screw them but man once a supersuper star on more than an expiring contract becomes available, he's all theirs.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I get the logic you guys are using, but I simply do not believe that what I am proposing will be available mid-season. If you offered Burks to NY right now for Courtney Lee and a 1st, I am very confident we will get something done. NY is absolutely set on pursuing massive free agents next summer. Let's play on that ambition by picking up what could be a top 8 pick this coming draft. Even if we just pick swap a couple times, we could be looking at a top end lottery pick in 2019 just for paying a pretty decent Courtney Lee the next two years.

I don't think a single Jazz fan would regret having a good draft pick even if it costs us a shot at Tobias Harris. Most Jazz fans would be happy with one more year of Favors plus a lottery pick. And if we really wanted Tobias Harris that badly, couldn't we use the NY pick at this coming deadline to get the deal done if it looks like he's leaving?

They won't give a pick unprotected... and it would likely be Noah if they did... that team is tanking this season and their pick is gonna be worth too much. If they would do that deal Lee+ FRP unprotected for AB I'd do it. Taking on salary likely nets you a mid/late FRP and in 2019 that's really meh imo.

 

[TheStormofWar]

The others teams have lots of aces is the problem. Especially Boston. Screw them but man once a supersuper star on more than an expiring contract becomes available, he's all theirs.

In terms of expirings, Boston cannot touch us.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/boston-celtics-team-salary/

So if the team is looking to unload, we can put together a good package. But again, it just depends what they want. Usually picks/talent like Boston has will get it done. But we've got some good players as well as expirings, talent, and picks. It's more a matter of the other team's desire. I agree, Boston wins 80% of the time, but sometimes you have to roll the dice.

 

[MDAV28]

In terms of expirings, Boston cannot touch us.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/boston-celtics-team-salary/

So if the team is looking to unload, we can put together a good package. But again, it just depends what they want. Usually picks/talent like Boston has will get it done. But we've got some good players as well as expirings, talent, and picks. It's more a matter of the other team's desire. I agree, Boston wins 80% of the time, but sometimes you have to roll the dice.

I mean I disagree with the notion that expiring and role players even touch the asset allocation Boston can offer. When you trade a superstar, you ideally you get star potential back whether in current young players or valuable draft picks. I'd say Boston, Philly, LA, and many others whose own picks will be high, have us beat 100% of the time, even with another mid-first round pick.

I prefer to roll the dice of FA, even with no historical precedent. I think our team is good enough as constructed and could be appealing enough to make it happen. I at least like the chances much more than somehow outbidding those teams.

 

[Ron Mexico]

No thanks to Klay at 30+ million.

 

[Ron Mexico]

I think Burks will have a bigger role than anticipated. He played very well in the playoffs. He is healthy now and score. Maybe this is the year he comes the 6th man role we all expected from him. Either way I expect him to be the backup 2 guard unless we trade him.

This is the lineup I expect to see.

Rubio, Exum, Neto, Allen
Mitchell, Burks, Exum, Allen
Ingles, Royce, Crowder, Sef
Favors, Crowder, Sef
Gobert, Favors, udoh, Bradley

 

[LoPo]

Even if it was Burks for Lee and a 2019 a pick swap with NY, we would probably be in the top 10. Maybe NY protects it #1, but getting rid of Lee gives them a full max for KD. It's worth the shot for them. They could also extend Porzingis while keeping a max spot available.

As for us, the 2019 NY 1st plus expirings plus our 2021 pick is a pretty good offer if we went shopping. Or we just use our amazing ability to draft to pick another great player.

 

[MDAV28]

I'd prefer to try and sign a star rather than help another team get one.