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2021 NBA Draft Preview (new thread)

LoPo said:
Well if Memphis drafts the next Donovan at #10, then sure it looks great. But if #10 is like most #10 in a draft, it's a bad deal.

JV is better than Adams
Bledsoe is overpaid and doesn't really fit on Memphis

The Memphis side of this deal would have made sense on a roster like ours if we got two useful role players for a team on the brink of a title. But Memphis isn't that. Instead, they are going to forfeit $38 million of cap space the last couple years before Morant starts a massive extension.

NOLA, on the other hand, is going to 100% maximize what they can with Zion and Ingram. So according to what you're saying - if they overpay Lowry, they still have a better team with Lowry and JV than they would have ever had with Adams and Bledsoe.

So unless Memphis destroys the pick, NOLA wins this trade easily. And it's also possible that NOLA gets a better player at #17 than Memphis gets at #10.
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Unless NOLA does something awesome with the cap space they just cleared its a win for Memphis. The draft odds at #10 aren't great but you have about a 25% chance at landing a blue chip guy... at #17 it is waaaaaaayyyyyy worse. Just look at the draft history of the last 5ish years from 15-20... It might be a 5-10% chance. Blue chip talent is the toughest thing to acquire.

Rumors are Bledsoe is headed elsewhere already. Gonna guess this might be a Laker Kuzma/Montrez deal. Just a guess doe.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If you are only willing to make a pick if there are guys you love... that is a problem. Its a common GM thing to say that sounds good but leads to mistakes... remember Brooklyn trading the pick that became Damian Lillard because they only protected the pick 1-3 because there were only three guys they liked.

You said it yourself... the draft is a crap shoot... deferring picks because you are sure this draft is probably valuing your analysis too highly. The guys you pick from at #30 are likely not meaningfully different from the guys you'd pick from at #25ish next year.

You may see it as bold or smart to keep your options open... but i've been fed a lot of BS over the years as a Jazz fans about "flexibility, powder being dry, etc." that were really just wishy washy leadership.

In our current situation trading #30 just for a first next year (it would be protected) would be a mistake. Do we need trade assets? yes! We need a good young player in the pipeline even more though. We can burn a couple firsts for a guy like RoCo like Portland did last year and have it turn out to be a bad deal too... there are lots of ways to fail. NBA is hard.
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So you want teams to draft players that they don't like? I guess we have different thoughts on that. In any case, it really doesn't make sense to call trading the pick a sign of good/bad scouting. Great scouting could inform the decision either way. Making the pick regardless of what your scouting thinks is not a point for great scouting.

I think it's bold because it is a move that you know, without fail, will be unfavorable to the fanbase. There's no doubt about that. In a win now situation there's obviously a lot of pressure from ownership as well. It's not the easy move, that's for sure.

Trading #30 is only a mistake depending on what the following up moves are. The NBA is hard, and one of those ways to fail is missing on the 30th pick. I do hesitate to call it failure, however, because the likelihood of players amounting to something at this stage of the draft is low.

Now I know you might be thinking of all the anecdotes of when it did work out. Rudy Gobert was drafted #27 and without him we can't even think about winning. But you can't rely on anecdotes to make decisions. You will always find a counterexample. You may think of Robert Covington as fail, but the Bucks just moved a conditional first for PJ Tucker and they probably don't win the title without him. Trading first isn't good or bad on it's own, it depends on the player you get and the context you're bringing him into.

You can either make the pick, trade it now, punt it back and trade it later, or punt it back and select. All are reasonable options depending on how you the many confounding variables. If were to go with one of the latter option I don't see it as a sign of cowardice. Having a pick in hand to trade could be handy.
 
So apparently Bledsoe won’t be staying in Memphis and will be on the move again. And Memphis is trying to move up again from 10. Givony said Memphis worked out Moody privately in LA in anticipation of their moves. Also interview Bouknight and Kuminga. I assume pick 7 is the most available pick in that range?
 
Pels get off Adams and Bledsoe and only slide back 7 spots. JV also has more offensive versatility. Nice deal for them.
Memphis must really be hunting someone in the lottery.

 
So does Memphis/ NO trade this early signal there may be a lot of trades for this draft?
Bucks/ Suns final maybe shows you don't need a super team to win?
 
KqWIN said:
So you want teams to draft players that they don't like? I guess we have different thoughts on that. In any case, it really doesn't make sense to call trading the pick a sign of good/bad scouting. Great scouting could inform the decision either way. Making the pick regardless of what your scouting thinks is not a point for great scouting.

I think it's bold because it is a move that you know, without fail, will be unfavorable to the fanbase. There's no doubt about that. In a win now situation there's obviously a lot of pressure from ownership as well. It's not the easy move, that's for sure.

Trading #30 is only a mistake depending on what the following up moves are. The NBA is hard, and one of those ways to fail is missing on the 30th pick. I do hesitate to call it failure, however, because the likelihood of players amounting to something at this stage of the draft is low.

Now I know you might be thinking of all the anecdotes of when it did work out. Rudy Gobert was drafted #27 and without him we can't even think about winning. But you can't rely on anecdotes to make decisions. You will always find a counterexample. You may think of Robert Covington as fail, but the Bucks just moved a conditional first for PJ Tucker and they probably don't win the title without him. Trading first isn't good or bad on it's own, it depends on the player you get and the context you're bringing him into.

You can either make the pick, trade it now, punt it back and trade it later, or punt it back and select. All are reasonable options depending on how you the many confounding variables. If were to go with one of the latter option I don't see it as a sign of cowardice. Having a pick in hand to trade could be handy.
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I'm clearly not explaining this well... if a GM says there aren't prospects at #30 I like... but every year there are nba players drafted at or after #30 that become something... then they may either be scared or not diving deep enough to find something "good enough" to draft.

If you are DL and trade the #35th pick for a future pick because you didn't like what was left on the board... and then 5 nba players are drafted in the next 12 or so picks... and one of them is the mvp of the league... then you are either scared or not great at identifying nba talent. The draft is unpredictable... so take the best shot at getting lucky. Deferring to next year leaves you about the same chances of landing a pick as this year... no matter how you feel about the players available.

I think we are at a critical time right now. Landing a good young player at this point would be a huge boost to our chances at extending our window and keeping Donovan around. Chances are slim... this draft has just as good a chance as another draft in the future. If we think there is a trade out there then maybe you get that future first... but it would be a win now short term move. Not sure we have the trade fodder to get something using just that firs and one of our rotation players.

Picks are like cash to me... are there reasons to save cash? for sure. If you have a ton of excess cash (like OKC with picks) you may not find enough good investments so kicking the can down the road a little is fine. So do we hold cash right now? What is the meaningful change to the market that we are waiting for? Or do we take a chance on a stock that may help us retire? We are also cash poor so maybe getting a little savings makes sense. If I took some cash to my investment guy and he said "les just stay in cash here" he had better have a good reason why. If the market got 10% like it normally does I'd have some issues.
 
zyzz said:
So apparently Bledsoe won’t be staying in Memphis and will be on the move again. And Memphis is trying to move up again from 10. Givony said Memphis worked out Moody privately in LA in anticipation of their moves. Also interview Bouknight and Kuminga. I assume pick 7 is the most available pick in that range?
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I think 8 would be available too.
 
Wonder if Bane, Tillman, Allen, or Melton have enough value to move up to 7/8... maybe GS wants some rotation players to add to its lotto picks? Might also dump Looney.
 
Memphis has extended their timeline. If they play their cards right and hit a draft piece, they will be scary. And this draft has some big potentials around 10. Giddey, Garuba, Alperen, Kai Jones are all good fits and have upside. If Kuminga falls it's great. Even Wagner and Moody can fill a need and help during playoffs with experience within few years. Lots of options.

Mepmphis doesn't need "win now" moves now. Adams is not a significant downgrade either.
 
The NO deal is even dumber when you consider they could just keep Ball and Hart without doing the maneuvering they did today. They clear $25M if they let Lonzo walk and keep Hart's cap hold... so they gave up those draft assets for JV on an expiring deal and the right to overpay Lowry and let Lonzo walk. Maybe they have to waive both Lonzo and Hart to get to the number that Lowry wants. Silly **** really.
 
Hekate said:
Memphis has extended their timeline. If they play their cards right and hit a draft piece, they will be scary. And this draft has some big potentials around 10. Giddey, Garuba, Alperen, Kai Jones are all good fits and have upside. If Kuminga falls it's great. Even Wagner and Moody can fill a need and help during playoffs with experience within few years. Lots of options.

Mepmphis doesn't need "win now" moves now. Adams is not a significant downgrade either.
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And they added a first for next year. Everyone just hates Bledsoe so much I guess.
 
Memphis is scary young. They’ll have to sign some guys to extensions in a couple years, but they are only going to get better.
 
Hekate said:
Who cares about Bledsoe? Look at the pick lol. He is terrible fit. Won't likely start but can help off the bench and Memphis won't care one bit if he pulls an Igoudala.
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He's getting flipped to another team... several people have reported it... just watch him get flipped for something useful.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If you are DL and trade the #35th pick for a future pick because you didn't like what was left on the board... and then 5 nba players are drafted in the next 12 or so picks... and one of them is the mvp of the league... then you are either scared or not great at identifying nba talent
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The funny thing is DL traded #35 for straight cash, not a future pick, when we were right in the middle of rebuild and in need of talented young players.
 
Hekate said:
Oh, I wonder what the deal would be. I have been away from twitter for a few hours and things got hectic.
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I'm guessing its either going to be with the Kings for Hield or Lakers with Kuzma and Harrell. There is obviously other stuff added there one way or another. They may also just work out a buyout. I'm guessing he'd be willing to give some money back to choose his next home.
 
LoPo said:
Well if Memphis drafts the next Donovan at #10, then sure it looks great. But if #10 is like most #10 in a draft, it's a bad deal.

JV is better than Adams
Bledsoe is overpaid and doesn't really fit on Memphis

The Memphis side of this deal would have made sense on a roster like ours if we got two useful role players for a team on the brink of a title. But Memphis isn't that. Instead, they are going to forfeit $38 million of cap space the last couple years before Morant starts a massive extension.

NOLA, on the other hand, is going to 100% maximize what they can with Zion and Ingram. So according to what you're saying - if they overpay Lowry, they still have a better team with Lowry and JV than they would have ever had with Adams and Bledsoe.

So unless Memphis destroys the pick, NOLA wins this trade easily. And it's also possible that NOLA gets a better player at #17 than Memphis gets at #10.
Click to expand...
Memphis should have another trade lining up for Bledsoe.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm clearly not explaining this well... if a GM says there aren't prospects at #30 I like... but every year there are nba players drafted at or after #30 that become something... then they may either be scared or not diving deep enough to find something "good enough" to draft.

If you are DL and trade the #35th pick for a future pick because you didn't like what was left on the board... and then 5 nba players are drafted in the next 12 or so picks... and one of them is the mvp of the league... then you are either scared or not great at identifying nba talent. The draft is unpredictable... so take the best shot at getting lucky. Deferring to next year leaves you about the same chances of landing a pick as this year... no matter how you feel about the players available.

I think we are at a critical time right now. Landing a good young player at this point would be a huge boost to our chances at extending our window and keeping Donovan around. Chances are slim... this draft has just as good a chance as another draft in the future. If we think there is a trade out there then maybe you get that future first... but it would be a win now short term move. Not sure we have the trade fodder to get something using just that firs and one of our rotation players.

Picks are like cash to me... are there reasons to save cash? for sure. If you have a ton of excess cash (like OKC with picks) you may not find enough good investments so kicking the can down the road a little is fine. So do we hold cash right now? What is the meaningful change to the market that we are waiting for? Or do we take a chance on a stock that may help us retire? We are also cash poor so maybe getting a little savings makes sense. If I took some cash to my investment guy and he said "les just stay in cash here" he had better have a good reason why. If the market got 10% like it normally does I'd have some issues.
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You can definitely trade the pick and have it be a bad move. You can also make the pick and have it a bad move. I don't agree with saying it shows weakness or cowardice to not make the pick. Trading it or keeping it all has it's pros and cons and obviously depends on what you get out of either option. If you make the pick and draft bad, bad move. Trade the pick and it doesn't amount to anything, also bad move. There's no automatic win/loss here. I'm not even calling for us to punt back, I just don't fundamentally see an issue with the process of either route.

I get that this is sports, but I seriously don't understand why people have to throw cowardice into everything. If you trade the pick because you didn't like the options, that's not cowardice that's actually just trusting your scouting. "You didn't have the balls to draft someone you don't like, what a coward!" Seriously, that can't be how we operate. Drafting at #30 is a high risk proposition, so it is risk aversion. But I also don't think you are a coward if you don't take the riskiest route every time and trading the pick for another pick isn't without risk, especially when it comes to your favorability/job security.

Trading the pick also doesn't mean bad scouting. Trading the pick means you don't like the options available. That could be good or bad depending on the draft. It's not inherently good or bad to think the draft is strong. Good scouting means that you have a good read on the strength of the draft and just because there is a player that pops in a draft that you think is bad doesn't mean the scouting is bad and you didn't look hard enough. Good/bad scouting informs the decision to trade or not, but it is not slanted towards keeping or trading.

As far as our situation, I would agree that it's a critical time. I think we're 2-3 years away from Donovan demanding out and then our time of winning lots of games is over and landing on #30 would be a huge win. Resources are scarce and the pick has to hit in some way. I'm hoping we can cut the salary without Favors and use the pick to move Favors and return.

If I'm being honest, however, I thought the pick would be moved to dump Favors if Conley was coming back and all signs point to that so that's all it will probably amount to. In all these scenarios, salary has to be cut one way or another. So first you have to find a way to cut salary, then you think about making the team better. Favors dump looks wayyyy more likely than Bogey/Ingles IMO.
 
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