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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Bawse Dawg said:
Y'all laugh at Cy's big board... So should I respect him or not take it too serious? IDK how to react.
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Cy’s big board was fine. I like people who go against the grain on certain prospects and are willing to put them way higher or way lower than consensus.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Depends on what you mean by flourish and what kind of team they get on. I think Amen is going to need a lot of spacing around him.

With Ausar since his **** is better, he's a bit safer, but I'm also scared he might just be Terrance Ferguson or something like that.
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I feel bad for Terrance. Every time I saw him in the box score as T. Ferguson, I saw
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TheStormofWar said:
Any model that has Scoot Henderson as 11 need to be put back into the oven for a few more hours. It's not done yet.
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why? i have him at 3 because he has so much upside, but he wasn't that special in the g league this past season. his teammate leonard miller was a lot better for example. there is a strong possibility scoot is wildly overrated and just not that good.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
why? i have him at 3 because he has so much upside, but he wasn't that special in the g league this past season. his teammate leonard miller was a lot better for example. there is a very strong possibility scoot is wildly overrated and just not that good.
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That's possible with Scoot, but I put his floor as higher than most others in this draft and his upside is sadistic. Some folks like certain prospects better than others and this is all a crapshoot anyway. But putting Black that high over Miller, Scoot, and others? Yeah, that's a flawed "model" to me.
 
Coach Ellis said:
I must be in the minority, because I don’t like the Thompson twins at all for the Jazz. I’d much rather see the Jazz trade up for Whitmore or Walker, or stay at 9 and draft Black or Hendricks. I’m still intrigued by Cason Wallace, but I have some minor concerns with rumored back issues. If the medicals check out, he’s higher up on my list.

So many smokescreens right now, and most of it’s all ********. Danny Ainge isn’t going to tip his hand. I think he’s going to make a bold move to get a guy he wants. Hopefully it’s the right move. He killed it at the top of the draft in Boston. I have faith in him to get it right in Utah too. DA is one of the absolute best in the business.
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I would only trade up for Cam or maybe Scoot. It just struck me that Amen could maybe fall all the way to 9 (although I doubt he makes it past Washington if they’re rebuilding).
 
KqWIN said:
Draft models have become out of style because of how much the game has changed overtime, but I still think this stuff is really fun. Jesse Fischer is definitely someone in the space to respect. Don't take it too serious.


View: https://twitter.com/jessefischer33/status/1669600875663458306
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black at 2 (too high), dick at 4 (too high), b miller at 7 (too low), bufkin at 28 (way too low) seem crazy to me, but for the most part i can see where he's coming from with that list. and even on those that i feel are crazy, we all have differences of opinion - imo, it's a good list and i like the way he's thinking.

i even like the fact he doesn't rank the thompsons. they are such wild cards - nearly impossible to evaluate. doesn't mean they won't be great, but it's just so hard to know what you are getting with them, i get the idea of just leaving them off your model and letting nba people worry about where to fit them in.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
black at 2 (too high), dick at 4 (too high), b miller at 7 (too low), bufkin at 28 (way too low) seem crazy to me, but for the most part i can see where he's coming from with that list. and even on those that i feel are crazy, we all have differences of opinion - imo, it's a good list and i like the way he's thinking.

i even like the fact he doesn't rank the thompsons. they are such wild cards - nearly impossible to evaluate. doesn't mean they won't be great, but it's just so hard to know what you are getting with them, i get the idea of just leaving them off your model and letting nba people worry about where to fit them in.
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Can you see where he is coming from? Isnt this all just based on some undefined algorithm that we dont have access to? He probably dosent rank the twins because they broke the algorithm.

Draft models are *** to me. Like most analytics based things, they are cool to pick-up any outliers or guys you might have passed over, but they are just tools to grab your eye so you can actually watch and see what the "truth" is.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
why? i have him at 3 because he has so much upside, but he wasn't that special in the g league this past season. his teammate leonard miller was a lot better for example. there is a strong possibility scoot is wildly overrated and just not that good.
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It's also numbers in numbers out. If all you had was what was on paper from what they did in the G-League, you wouldn't necessarily say that Scoot's numbers look better. If you think Scoot has more upside, which isn't wrong, it's probably not a number based argument and that's totally fine. The actual draft is obviously more complex than what is on paper, but a model is a model and nothing else. It's simply associating current numbers to previous numbers. In other words, whose numbers reflect project the most success based on previous results? Numbers is only one part of the evaluation, but people get so upset when it doesn't match their total evaluation.

I always say this, but models are a tool. Can't expect one tool to do the entire job, but at the same time it's probably a tool we'd like to in our bag. We shouldn't use them like gospel, we should try to understand why the model is saying a certain thing and evaluate the validity of it. At the end of the day it's just a different perspective to take into consideration.
 
If you read his follow up tweets it says not to get hung up on exact order but to look at what guys are outside of tiers they traditionally are placed in or something like that. These are helpful simply to see "what guys are we subscribing to group think on that we need to re-evaluate?". I doubt this guy would follow his exact order if he was drafting for a team but it might lead him to take Amari Bailey or someone like that 10 spots before consensus.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
If you read his follow up tweets it says not to get hung up on exact order but to look at what guys are outside of tiers they traditionally are placed in or something like that. These are helpful simply to see "what guys are we subscribing to group think on that we need to re-evaluate?". I doubt this guy would follow his exact order if he was drafting for a team but it might lead him to take Amari Bailey or someone like that 10 spots before consensus.
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The people who hate this stuff want to read it like a big board list, but if you actually understand how the these things work you would have a measured approach like Jesse and use it as a tool.
 
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